Naive-Recipe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$344

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.0%

Resolved

Trades

284

lifetime

Volume

$18.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 05-20 22:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Sports

76% 32% $-339

Other

23% — —

Politics

0% — —

Crypto

0% 0% $-5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
wbc usa ven 2026 03 17	13	$1.4K	2,055	2,055	+0	open	—	03-18 02:14
nhl ott car 2026 04 20	3	$1.3K	735	729	+6	open	—	04-21 04:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$765	774	774	+0	open	—	04-07 22:41
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5	2	$647	500	500	+0	Over	+$47	05-10 03:35
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5	2	$562	315	315	+0	open	—	04-30 04:32
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5	2	$556	550	550	+0	Over	$-126	05-14 02:30
wbc ita ven 2026 03 16	2	$500	1,350	0	+1,350	open	—	03-16 20:32
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5	2	$483	300	300	+0	Over	+$117	05-06 02:46
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	4	$468	747	747	+0	open	—	05-19 02:08
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5	14	$433	270	270	+0	open	—	05-01 04:55
cbb smu miaoh 2026 03 18	2	$421	335	334	+1	open	—	03-19 03:32
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	3	$402	427	427	+0	Under	$-119	05-07 02:23
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5	3	$400	250	250	+0	Over	+$95	05-12 02:51
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 5.5	2	$373	223	221	+2	open	—	04-28 03:16
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	3	$350	500	500	+0	Sean Strickland	+$150	05-10 04:26
mlb nyy sf 2026 03 25 spread away 1pt5	2	$325	250	250	+0	open	—	03-26 02:21
nhl lak col 2026 04 19	1	$302	425	0	+425	open	—	04-19 16:48
cbb tx byu 2026 03 19	1	$297	675	0	+675	open	—	03-19 19:03
Stars vs. Wild	2	$286	186	186	+0	open	—	05-01 02:56
nba dal lac 2026 04 07 points cooper flagg 26pt5	1	$270	500	0	+500	open	—	04-08 02:26
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	2	$213	300	300	+0	New York Yankees	$-123	05-07 18:11
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	7	$198	330	75	+255	open	—	04-26 01:51
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	2	$197	150	150	+0	Sean Brady	+$74	05-10 02:07
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	5	$189	125	125	+0	open	—	05-03 20:48
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	2	$175	125	125	+0	Joshua Van	+$75	05-10 03:51
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	1	$171	450	0	+450	Hurricanes	+$279	05-07 23:59
nhl car ott 2026 04 23	3	$168	205	103	+102	open	—	04-24 02:20
Wild vs. Stars	2	$155	109	109	+0	open	—	04-29 02:30
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres	3	$155	100	100	+0	open	—	04-29 02:41
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	2	$152	100	100	+0	open	—	05-02 18:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 22:51:41	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	153	46¢	$70	0x489fe2…
05-19 02:08:37	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	662	9¢	$61	0xb07b19…
05-19 02:06:53	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	74	13¢	$9	0x4f72e9…
05-19 02:06:11	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	11	19¢	$2	0xea0c49…
05-18 23:28:12	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	747	53¢	$396	0x529c73…
05-16 21:51:42	MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano	Carano	BUY	26	18¢	$5	0x9f6fc7…
05-16 21:37:28	Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	150	32¢	$48	0xf83d75…
05-16 21:37:04	MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano	Carano	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x53d35a…
05-16 21:37:00	Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)	Canadiens	BUY	125	39¢	$49	0x81310b…
05-16 21:35:08	MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano	Carano	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x2c26a3…
05-16 21:32:48	MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano	Carano	BUY	43	18¢	$8	0xf8912b…
05-16 21:32:08	MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano	Carano	BUY	324	18¢	$59	0x146ed3…
05-14 22:31:27	Golden Knights vs. Ducks	Ducks	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xa580ea…
05-14 22:26:40	Spread: Sabres (-1.5)	Sabres	BUY	150	30¢	$45	0x7f27af…
05-14 02:30:36	Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	550	39¢	$215	0xe96e8c…
05-13 23:44:46	Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	550	62¢	$341	0xb2d5de…
05-13 16:57:41	Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	125	39¢	$49	0x585e34…
05-12 22:12:17	Ducks vs. Golden Knights	Ducks	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0xb0f063…
05-12 22:12:09	Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)	Canadiens	BUY	125	36¢	$45	0x5b7a06…
05-12 22:11:56	Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xb26c7a…
05-12 02:51:26	Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0xbcef06…
05-11 21:56:42	Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	190	61¢	$116	0x573ba3…
05-11 21:49:07	Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	60	61¢	$37	0x9a9bcc…
05-11 21:48:11	New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles	New York Yankees	BUY	80	58¢	$46	0x0e6bc4…
05-11 01:27:32	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Sabres	BUY	75	8¢	$6	0xdc4b45…
05-10 22:58:33	Spread: Ducks (-1.5)	Ducks	BUY	150	30¢	$45	0xbae648…
05-10 22:57:56	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Sabres	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x866373…
05-10 22:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x08c7f3…
05-10 15:27:43	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	75	41¢	$31	0x20f882…
05-10 04:26:34	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	481	50¢	$241	0x85945d…
05-10 04:25:12	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	19	51¢	$10	0xfd199d…
05-10 03:51:15	UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	Joshua Van	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0xf5ee03…
05-10 03:35:59	Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	500	69¢	$347	0x6a249a…
05-10 03:18:10	UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	Joshua Van	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x8c7de8…
05-10 02:30:32	Will Alexander Volkov win by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	79	25¢	$20	0x967136…
05-10 02:30:29	Will Alexander Volkov win by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0x674b09…
05-10 02:07:09	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Sean Brady	SELL	150	90¢	$135	0x6d284f…
05-10 01:52:50	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0x2ef18e…
05-09 20:56:14	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x352c4a…
05-09 20:55:44	Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	500	60¢	$300	0x973bee…
05-09 20:55:06	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Hurricanes	BUY	125	41¢	$51	0x12a7de…
05-09 20:54:25	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Sean Brady	BUY	150	41¢	$61	0xb8fb97…
05-09 20:41:02	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x094abc…
05-08 22:31:27	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	125	41¢	$51	0xad77f0…
05-08 22:30:59	Spread: Sabres (-1.5)	Sabres	BUY	150	34¢	$51	0x5e108a…
05-07 23:59:59	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Hurricanes	BUY	450	38¢	$171	0x5ef5d8…
05-07 18:11:46	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	SELL	300	15¢	$45	0xe7e30b…
05-07 17:16:42	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	300	56¢	$168	0x87c1aa…
05-07 15:01:03	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees	No	BUY	145	51¢	$74	0xdea733…
05-07 02:23:02	Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	427	33¢	$141	0x0af143…
05-06 23:52:34	Spread: Sabres (-1.5)	Sabres	BUY	150	47¢	$70	0x070e6b…
05-06 23:49:58	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	SELL	111	16¢	$18	0xc5d234…
05-06 23:48:15	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	125	20¢	$25	0x6aef59…
05-06 22:53:00	Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	77	61¢	$47	0x6f7c4a…
05-06 22:45:03	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x352615…
05-06 22:42:36	Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	350	61¢	$214	0x6aa772…
05-06 22:42:08	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	125	48¢	$60	0x6b1f96…
05-06 19:27:16	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x812835…
05-06 19:26:51	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies	No	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0xa81526…
05-06 18:58:58	Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners	Atlanta Braves	BUY	120	45¢	$54	0x98ab46…
05-06 02:46:54	Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x9109a0…
05-06 02:40:50	Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)	Wild	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x43f513…
05-06 01:00:34	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	SELL	85	39¢	$33	0xe24f7c…
05-05 23:31:30	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x62c013…
05-05 23:31:30	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	48	18¢	$9	0x61d6ce…
05-05 23:30:06	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x2537c4…
05-05 23:27:32	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xf143e1…
05-05 23:27:14	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xe9b17a…
05-05 23:25:24	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xe43554…
05-05 23:24:12	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x0b432e…
05-05 19:41:36	Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	300	61¢	$183	0x5d666d…
05-05 19:40:16	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees	Yes	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x21eb4f…
05-05 19:39:38	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees	Yes	BUY	72	51¢	$37	0xbe293b…
05-05 19:39:14	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x876cc1…
05-05 04:25:00	Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x79acc8…
05-05 04:25:00	Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	185	29¢	$54	0x368471…
05-05 04:24:58	Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0xfbeede…
05-05 01:37:34	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Hurricanes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xce58de…
05-04 21:24:08	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Hurricanes	BUY	250	47¢	$118	0x07dacb…
05-04 21:23:42	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xd1d701…
05-04 21:23:20	Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	265	29¢	$77	0xc8a303…
05-03 20:48:28	Spread: Lightning (-1.5)	Lightning	BUY	125	36¢	$45	0xecb85a…
05-03 20:48:04	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x97c38e…
05-03 20:48:00	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xe46820…
05-03 20:47:56	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	SELL	66	98¢	$64	0x506bf6…
05-03 20:47:34	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x075a27…
05-03 14:21:48	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	94	37¢	$35	0xe829bb…
05-03 14:18:58	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	125	53¢	$66	0x4d24a8…
05-03 00:56:24	New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xc81620…
05-02 23:27:20	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Hurricanes	BUY	150	45¢	$68	0xac08f4…
05-02 18:35:50	Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	0	57¢	$0	0xb2777d…
05-02 18:35:44	Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	96	57¢	$55	0x2f084b…
05-02 18:35:40	Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	28	57¢	$16	0x1bc7fc…
05-02 18:35:28	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x6ad6f9…
05-02 18:34:06	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x1d56cb…
05-02 17:04:18	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins	No	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0xb606a4…
05-02 13:59:12	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xa9ae50…
05-01 21:00:06	Sabres vs. Bruins	Sabres	BUY	150	53¢	$80	0xb3562b…
05-01 20:59:42	Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	235	43¢	$101	0x488166…
05-01 20:59:18	Lightning vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	125	49¢	$61	0x172fc6…