Shallow-Disposer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$11

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 06-11 16:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

88% — —

Politics

12% 100% +$5

Other

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+10	$7	78¢	$8	+$1	06-08 10:23
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+19	$5	12¢	$2	$-3	06-11 16:20
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	Yes	+3	$1	26¢	$1	$-0	06-08 08:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	2	$105	112	0	+112	open	—	05-03 12:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$100	106	0	+106	open	—	05-03 17:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	1	$100	132	0	+132	open	—	05-04 08:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	1	$100	105	0	+105	open	—	05-03 17:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	1	$100	116	0	+116	open	—	05-03 17:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	1	$100	106	0	+106	open	—	05-03 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	1	$100	103	0	+103	open	—	05-03 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	1	$100	104	0	+104	open	—	05-03 17:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$100	105	0	+105	open	—	05-03 17:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	3	$67	73	37	+36	open	—	05-03 13:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	2	$50	58	0	+58	open	—	05-03 12:59
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	4	$36	41	0	+41	No	+$5	05-04 09:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$29	33	0	+33	open	—	05-25 16:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	1	$25	29	0	+29	open	—	05-03 10:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	3	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	05-04 07:52
iran closes its airspace by june 15	1	$11	0	11	-11	open	—	06-08 08:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	05-03 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-03 16:59
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	1	$10	0	10	-10	open	—	06-08 08:09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-26 06:26
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	2	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	06-08 10:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-03 10:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	06-11 16:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-03 11:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-03 18:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-03 17:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-04 07:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-04 07:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-03 10:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-03 12:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 16:26:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe543b4…
06-11 16:20:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x9629ac…
06-08 10:28:27	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xfc513b…
06-08 10:23:54	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x1c30bf…
06-08 09:52:31	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xcad179…
06-08 09:51:22	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xf18604…
06-08 09:47:46	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	11¢	$0	0x434df8…
06-08 09:46:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x13e39d…
06-08 09:24:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x112e10…
06-08 08:29:13	Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x78bafe…
06-08 08:27:52	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x1cad08…
06-08 08:21:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x744f40…
06-08 08:09:51	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x88121d…
06-08 08:09:46	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3afb57…
06-02 18:12:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x1f3fd1…
05-26 06:26:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x470fb1…
05-25 16:37:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	33	89¢	$29	0x93a0ea…
05-25 06:36:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xfffea2…
05-25 06:31:28	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0x92e0f1…
05-23 15:43:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x73427f…
05-23 15:41:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0x958c24…
05-22 08:24:30	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x7da769…
05-21 18:56:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x579e6e…
05-21 18:56:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xb57c56…
05-12 07:55:21	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x08d5e1…
05-11 19:32:05	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x56c521…
05-11 19:27:34	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x888f91…
05-04 09:26:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	24	89¢	$21	0x99025e…
05-04 08:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xeb0c99…
05-04 08:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xb8f3f0…
05-04 07:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x239462…
05-04 07:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xfd1977…
05-04 07:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xff03ee…
05-04 07:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xedb3a1…
05-04 07:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xe7ea35…
05-03 18:16:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xbdce40…
05-03 18:03:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x2c625c…
05-03 17:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x1bf465…
05-03 17:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1f59be…
05-03 17:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x91d389…
05-03 17:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	104	97¢	$100	0x9f4f94…
05-03 17:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x68fe8a…
05-03 17:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xcc384c…
05-03 17:01:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x1c4812…
05-03 16:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x083275…
05-03 16:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xb9fecd…
05-03 16:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x655ba8…
05-03 13:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x5b4a22…
05-03 13:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	37	45¢	$17	0xab674e…
05-03 13:05:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x324c6b…
05-03 12:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x19246a…
05-03 12:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xe5be3f…
05-03 12:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xbffa8b…
05-03 12:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x8c9f5f…
05-03 12:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x0d4346…
05-03 11:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x2c1647…
05-03 10:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xf8de96…
05-03 10:49:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xb9c124…
05-03 10:49:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x201120…
05-03 10:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x6395cd…
05-03 10:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x82da68…
05-03 10:18:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x988c58…
05-03 10:15:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xa74ef4…
05-03 10:15:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x46a864…