Constant-Dugout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

9.1%

Resolved

Trades

167

lifetime

Volume

$179

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-21 01:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

60% 25% $-0

Politics

12% — —

Crypto

11% — —

Tech

9% — —

Sports

7% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	17	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	02-02 02:43
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	7	$7	3	4	-1	open	—	01-14 04:44
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$-0	03-23 02:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	02-18 03:34
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	5	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-28 01:55
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	5	$5	2	3	-1	open	—	03-17 02:09
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-27 01:01
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-31 01:13
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-02 01:38
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-17 02:08
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-22 08:03
cbb tulsa charlt 2026 01 14	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-15 01:49
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-12 06:45
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-20 03:24
nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 31 2026 0pt29	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-20 03:24
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	3	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	05-15 07:18
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-24 01:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-08 05:57
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-15 07:19
will trump dance during tpusa event on april 17	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-17 02:32
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-17 02:36
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-21 01:31
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 07:39
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-14 08:39
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-08 05:57
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-29 08:17
nhl chi phi 2026 03 26	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 01:19
bitcoin above 64k on march 23	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-23 07:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-21 03:56
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-23 05:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 01:31:24	Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x616e5a…
05-21 01:31:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7e17aa…
05-21 01:30:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3bc657…
05-21 01:27:36	Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x833e4a…
05-15 07:19:49	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Esports Academy	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe7b07e…
05-15 07:18:40	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0xff6a42…
05-15 07:15:28	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Esports Academy	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa895b0…
05-15 03:05:27	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $5.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa86faf…
05-15 03:04:48	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $5.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe20492…
05-15 03:03:35	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xba73f3…
05-15 03:02:56	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd52e35…
05-14 02:49:18	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x1a2329…
05-14 02:48:41	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x781708…
05-14 02:47:38	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x0e4b9a…
05-14 02:36:49	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x3eb711…
05-13 01:07:56	Bengaluru 2: Alastair Gray vs Manish Sureshkumar	Alastair Gray	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x1b935e…
05-13 01:06:41	Bengaluru 2: Alastair Gray vs Manish Sureshkumar	Alastair Gray	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x4ac2b6…
05-06 02:33:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on May 6?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x975191…
04-27 01:01:50	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x48e82a…
04-27 01:01:40	Jiujiang: Alexis Galarneau vs Dane Sweeny	Alexis Galarneau	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xca9a59…
04-27 01:00:50	Jiujiang: Alexis Galarneau vs Dane Sweeny	Alexis Galarneau	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xdbd5ab…
04-27 00:55:44	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4f88d8…
04-24 01:37:08	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x419ad6…
04-24 01:33:50	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7ecdfc…
04-17 02:36:54	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x68d41e…
04-17 02:33:28	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5bca67…
04-17 02:32:50	will trump dance during tpusa event on april 17	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1ae156…
04-17 02:32:20	will trump dance during tpusa event on april 17	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1268e5…
04-15 01:52:40	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7019c6…
04-08 05:57:21	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4c4b2d…
04-08 05:57:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x21f3e5…
04-08 05:56:21	dota2 pari gl 2026 04 08	PARIVISION	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x43390d…
04-08 05:55:47	dota2 pari gl 2026 04 08	PARIVISION	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xef3d25…
04-08 05:55:01	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x84b7c9…
04-07 06:42:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0cdb30…
04-02 01:38:37	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x32d287…
04-02 01:38:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6aba48…
04-02 01:36:59	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xcd8a24…
04-02 01:35:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf1196a…
04-01 07:40:09	Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa11bfb…
04-01 07:39:55	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6c0011…
04-01 07:37:51	Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd0e808…
04-01 07:36:13	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa21e96…
03-31 01:14:15	will bitcoin reach 74k march 30 april 5	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x50e686…
03-31 01:13:27	Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x756176…
03-31 01:09:43	will bitcoin reach 74k march 30 april 5	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8d9f47…
03-31 01:04:09	Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x057973…
03-31 00:59:47	Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x199f58…
03-28 01:55:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x708875…
03-28 01:55:37	nba nop tor 2026 03 27	Raptors	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x617573…
03-28 01:55:09	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd2396a…
03-28 01:54:07	nba nop tor 2026 03 27	Raptors	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x99a306…
03-27 01:19:47	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 27	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9966c6…
03-27 01:19:35	nhl chi phi 2026 03 26	Flyers	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc58b45…
03-27 01:19:09	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 27	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe51e51…
03-27 01:18:31	nhl chi phi 2026 03 26	Flyers	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf9cc5e…
03-26 06:19:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x136f7b…
03-24 02:04:09	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xd18442…
03-24 02:03:33	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x9f6482…
03-24 02:03:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x8d3346…
03-24 02:02:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x983805…
03-23 07:59:31	will jamie be said 3 times on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xe24180…
03-23 07:59:11	bitcoin above 64k on march 23	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd99298…
03-23 07:58:43	will jamie be said 3 times on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0156fa…
03-23 07:57:55	bitcoin above 64k on march 23	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xae9d60…
03-23 02:08:43	will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xf08d2d…
03-23 02:08:09	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x8301fd…
03-23 02:07:19	will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xda9d78…
03-23 02:06:23	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xbba277…
03-21 03:56:57	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xb8d496…
03-21 03:56:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x91d214…
03-21 03:56:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x590390…
03-21 03:53:13	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x48d7f9…
03-20 03:24:29	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xeacf83…
03-20 03:24:13	nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 31 2026 0pt29	Yes	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xeb59f8…
03-20 03:23:45	nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 31 2026 0pt29	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xfdedc5…
03-20 03:23:39	nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 31 2026 0pt29	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xc2b199…
03-20 03:22:39	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x0fbc51…
03-19 01:07:05	highest temperature in chicago on march 22 2026 63forbelow	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x2f3dca…
03-19 01:06:49	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xb64bd7…
03-19 01:02:13	highest temperature in chicago on march 22 2026 63forbelow	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x7ddd93…
03-19 00:57:41	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xb53523…
03-18 07:34:25	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x0375c7…
03-18 07:33:33	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x6e141d…
03-18 07:26:53	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x2093fa…
03-18 07:22:11	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x36e11a…
03-17 02:09:47	will fidesz kdnp win at least 80 seats	Yes	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x8c6f8a…
03-17 02:09:37	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x902fe8…
03-17 02:08:25	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x70b863…
03-17 02:07:23	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf3df8d…
03-17 02:06:55	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x613b52…
03-17 02:05:49	will fidesz kdnp win at least 80 seats	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9a4ddc…
03-14 08:44:59	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x653633…
03-14 08:39:57	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0edb50…
03-14 08:37:45	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9a8082…
03-09 02:40:31	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x10fed2…
03-09 02:39:41	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x43e44e…
03-09 02:38:19	tsla above 375 on march 13 2026	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xb88756…
03-05 10:00:51	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x47afa6…
03-05 09:59:25	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xff9180…