Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$984

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

33.2%

Resolved

192

Trades

1,639

lifetime

Volume

$18.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$38

9 positions

First seen

2026-08-15

last 11-06 09:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

65% 42% -$640

Crypto

16% 40% -$67

Politics

12% 37% -$175

Tech

6% 14% -$56

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$47

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 602 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+11	$11	98¢	$11	+$0	11-06 09:13
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	+11	$10	98¢	$11	+$1	11-05 10:12
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	11-05 10:11
Will Nelson Pohl win the 2026 Yorkton—Melville by-election?	Yes	+5	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	11-05 14:31
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+3	$3	97¢	$3	+$0	11-05 10:13
will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by march 31 2027	No	+2	$1	66¢	$2	+$0	10-03 20:27
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	11-05 10:47
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+20	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	11-05 10:49
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	+1	$1	23¢	$0	$0	10-06 14:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-19 16:00 UTC	602	$2.7K	2,698	2,698	+0	Down	-$55	08-19 19:30
Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?	10	$649	450	450	+0	Yes	-$46	09-28 22:17
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?	8	$380	300	200	+100	Yes	-$1	10-15 01:16
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	9	$367	377	377	+0	Yes	+$20	10-04 20:35
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	13	$322	309	167	+142	No	-$9	10-08 21:05
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	14	$259	383	383	+0	Yes	-$44	09-29 03:56
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	13	$239	178	178	+0	Yes	-$40	09-29 15:43
Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 US song this week?	7	$228	218	218	+0	Yes	+$6	10-06 15:51
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	22	$226	286	286	+0	No	-$8	10-18 11:27
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	5	$220	150	150	+0	No	+$0	10-12 11:15
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	6	$214	200	200	+0	Yes	+$10	10-23 16:49
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	9	$201	200	200	+0	Yes	-$1	10-05 22:29
Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?	7	$199	218	218	+0	Yes	-$102	10-03 15:48
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	7	$198	250	250	+0	open	—	10-03 08:00
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	18	$197	164	164	+0	No	+$9	10-11 22:30
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$195	300	150	+150	Yes	-$106	10-04 14:23
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	8	$191	200	200	+0	open	—	11-03 18:40
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	6	$183	200	100	+100	Yes	-$15	10-09 13:37
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on October 5?	14	$182	142	142	+0	Yes	+$5	10-04 18:22
israeli airspace closed by december 31 2026	6	$177	150	150	+0	open	—	10-14 16:24
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	10	$174	186	186	+0	No	+$16	10-04 14:09
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	7	$170	163	163	+0	open	—	11-02 17:56
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on October 10?	18	$158	130	130	+0	No	+$5	10-09 17:57
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flare?	5	$148	285	235	+50	No	$0	10-06 12:45
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	7	$147	141	141	+0	No	+$3	10-13 14:44
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	6	$145	100	100	+0	Yes	-$5	10-04 15:00
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	7	$141	375	375	+0	No	-$1	10-02 11:24
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?	5	$139	150	150	+0	Yes	-$1	10-10 08:05
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 4?	12	$132	163	163	+0	No	-$2	10-04 09:16
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026?	10	$129	200	200	+0	open	—	10-07 08:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 09:13:24	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x069beb…
11-06 02:03:19	James Madison vs. Southern Miss	James Madison	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x1474f7…
11-06 01:57:24	Jaguars vs. Ravens	Jaguars	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x25eb29…
11-06 01:55:28	Costa do Sauipe: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Franco Roncadelli	Thiago Seyboth Wild	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0xab283e…
11-06 01:36:06	Costa do Sauipe: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Franco Roncadelli	Thiago Seyboth Wild	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x19d1e9…
11-06 01:34:19	Bruins vs. Penguins	Bruins	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x1e818f…
11-06 01:33:33	James Madison vs. Southern Miss	James Madison	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb5dda9…
11-05 23:58:48	Charlottesville: Andres Andrade vs James Kent Trotter	James Kent Trotter	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xaba654…
11-05 23:50:42	Costa do Sauipe: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Franco Roncadelli	Thiago Seyboth Wild	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xe7ba80…
11-05 23:49:45	Charlottesville (Doubles): Galarneau/Verdugo vs Milavsky/Shick	Milavsky/Shick	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x60fdf8…
11-05 23:35:30	Costa do Sauipe: Thiago Monteiro vs Marco Cecchinato	Marco Cecchinato	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xf6d895…
11-05 23:23:43	Costa do Sauipe: Thiago Monteiro vs Marco Cecchinato	Marco Cecchinato	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x1699a5…
11-05 21:32:46	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd28ac1…
11-05 16:26:55	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -3°C on November 5?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xf050f8…
11-05 14:31:39	Will Nelson Pohl win the 2026 Yorkton—Melville by-election?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbe0ec8…
11-05 13:30:49	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc634fa…
11-05 13:30:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x596d1d…
11-05 12:52:31	Will Kuching City FC win on 2026-11-05?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbfb992…
11-05 10:52:55	Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Zeynep Sonmez	Zeynep Sonmez	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9e412a…
11-05 10:49:00	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe53eac…
11-05 10:47:18	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x931490…
11-05 10:13:43	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x85c795…
11-05 10:12:21	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xac5d48…
11-05 10:12:00	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe4e584…
11-05 10:11:37	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9c4a2a…
11-05 10:10:58	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe82f31…
11-05 07:57:55	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on November 5?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x127126…
11-05 07:07:24	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on November 5?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xc4bad2…
11-04 23:33:28	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -3°C on November 5?	No	BUY	44	90¢	$39	0x2caa76…
11-04 14:58:06	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb6bfba…
11-04 14:57:55	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd58e61…
11-04 14:55:30	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x9a7d37…
11-03 18:40:09	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	Yes	SELL	75	2¢	$1	0x6dd864…
11-03 17:56:36	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0xdd7c88…
11-03 13:45:15	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian by October 31?	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x6fadcc…
11-03 13:45:12	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xecbf3c…
11-03 13:45:09	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x741d00…
11-02 17:56:27	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $446,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	86	0¢	$0	0x0cc947…
11-02 17:56:24	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0xeafbbd…
11-02 17:56:21	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	4¢	$1	0xb38166…
11-02 17:56:18	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	0¢	$0	0xde89a6…
11-02 17:46:10	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $446,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x1941ac…
11-02 17:46:09	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xb59aa1…
11-02 17:46:06	Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4?	No	SELL	69	1¢	$1	0x9b47d9…
11-02 17:46:03	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	6¢	$4	0xfe54ab…
11-02 17:46:01	Will Getafe finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xc56ab6…
11-02 17:45:57	Will Elazar Stern be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x255846…
11-02 17:45:55	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x3cbb60…
11-02 15:14:28	Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$5	0x4751c6…
11-02 11:29:58	Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x420158…
11-02 04:26:34	Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x1fd567…
11-02 00:37:24	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	SELL	90	10¢	$9	0x981fe0…
11-02 00:36:16	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x689535…
11-01 11:17:22	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	SELL	48	71¢	$34	0x8e7cb1…
11-01 11:04:55	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	40	75¢	$30	0xa0e46e…
11-01 06:06:24	Will Fred VanVleet play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?	No	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x8cb37c…
10-30 11:21:24	Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xacb2ef…
10-29 17:36:31	Will Newt Gingrich attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x5d1779…
10-24 09:58:42	Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x788945…
10-24 09:58:41	Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	25	87¢	$21	0x605c31…
10-23 16:49:30	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	26¢	$26	0x4f72cc…
10-20 10:04:48	Will London have between 85-110mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	SELL	47	18¢	$9	0xc69fc5…
10-19 11:55:00	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0xc5901e…
10-19 06:07:14	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0x39cbe7…
10-19 01:47:15	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0x79b9e6…
10-19 00:12:20	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x350dc2…
10-18 11:27:21	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x6906eb…
10-17 13:22:06	Will “Gary” by Stephen Wilson Jr. win Music Video of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x66ca4d…
10-16 18:33:04	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	30	33¢	$10	0x58ae01…
10-16 15:30:22	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x3c63dc…
10-16 00:36:25	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	44	90¢	$39	0x9fd5e2…
10-16 00:35:34	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x601b0f…
10-16 00:35:33	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xd6ee48…
10-16 00:35:30	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x95aa41…
10-15 21:56:45	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	46	62¢	$29	0x0d000c…
10-15 20:37:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0x03eef1…
10-15 18:31:31	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x2d2c9b…
10-15 14:59:01	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x9b893c…
10-15 14:59:01	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x66c031…
10-15 14:56:08	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	3	83¢	$2	0xfd3c85…
10-15 14:55:59	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x0ae6fc…
10-15 14:55:26	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x37603a…
10-15 13:10:14	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	SELL	80	87¢	$70	0x9d17d5…
10-15 12:41:01	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x7e3f40…
10-15 12:30:19	Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	Yes	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0xd3d671…
10-15 01:16:28	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	95¢	$31	0x073f82…
10-15 01:16:26	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	95¢	$112	0xcb2421…
10-14 21:59:48	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xec81f7…
10-14 21:36:36	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?	Yes	SELL	29	39¢	$11	0xc8e9f0…
10-14 21:02:06	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0xe845d2…
10-14 21:01:10	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0x74e85a…
10-14 16:24:28	israeli airspace closed by december 31 2026	No	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0x9837ad…
10-14 15:42:06	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	14¢	$11	0x2c606f…
10-14 15:42:04	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xe3cf2c…
10-14 15:25:40	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0x6fa45d…
10-14 15:23:00	Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October?	Yes	SELL	48	94¢	$45	0x933df4…
10-14 15:20:45	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?	Yes	SELL	13	39¢	$5	0x411ff4…
10-14 11:14:40	israeli airspace closed by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xedb996…
10-14 10:50:13	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0xf6f7ed…
10-14 10:50:13	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xf048ae…