Adept-Cape — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$38

Unrealized P&L

-$31

Hit rate

18.8%

Resolved

Trades

819

lifetime

Volume

$62.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

$122

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-07 20:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

63% 0% $-43

Other

37% 100% +$5

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	+2,236	$107	4¢	$97	$-10	06-07 19:02
Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+1,024	$39	2¢	$22	$-17	06-07 19:04
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	+10	$7	24¢	$2	$-5	06-07 19:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	93	$12.1K	52,515	52,515	+0	open	—	02-28 18:51
us strikes iraq by february 28	10	$4.4K	6,658	6,696	-38	open	—	02-28 10:22
odds of khamenei out by march 31 over 40 in february	10	$4.1K	3,779	3,779	+0	open	—	02-28 09:01
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	9	$3.6K	41,678	41,678	+0	open	—	02-28 01:14
will qatar strike iran by march 31	5	$3.6K	3,649	2,140	+1,508	open	—	03-05 05:27
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 25 in february	15	$3.4K	2,856	2,856	+0	open	—	02-18 17:17
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 50 in february	20	$3.3K	5,167	5,167	+0	open	—	02-28 13:51
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$2.5K	1,516	1,516	+0	open	—	04-03 17:33
us strikes iran by feb 28 odds 30 by friday	12	$2.3K	2,102	2,102	+0	open	—	02-04 18:27
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 20 in february 158	17	$1.8K	1,729	1,729	+0	open	—	02-18 11:31
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 30 in february	9	$1.6K	6,483	6,483	+0	open	—	02-28 09:02
will france strike iran by march 31	5	$1.3K	2,773	2,449	+324	open	—	03-03 19:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	11	$1.3K	1,401	1,401	+0	open	—	02-28 10:21
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	40	$992	19,367	19,367	+0	open	—	02-20 23:07
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	78	$989	16,185	16,185	+0	open	—	02-27 16:01
will iran strike cyprus in march	14	$950	1,135	1,035	+100	open	—	03-02 22:28
will iran strike israel on march 6	11	$870	1,216	0	+1,216	open	—	03-06 22:38
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	12	$803	7,815	7,815	+0	open	—	02-21 21:53
odds of khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 over 50 by january 16	26	$792	3,468	5,661	-2,194	open	—	01-16 23:35
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	36	$645	1,691	1,691	+0	open	—	02-27 17:08
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	3	$640	1,483	1,483	+0	open	—	04-05 13:19
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	7	$634	1,822	1,822	+0	open	—	02-27 21:13
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	3	$575	5,375	5,375	+0	open	—	03-03 20:34
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	20	$563	2,301	2,301	+0	open	—	01-14 21:28
us forces board bella 1 by friday	13	$539	329	447	-118	open	—	01-07 13:04
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	8	$519	1,557	505	+1,052	open	—	03-03 15:35
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	2	$427	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-12 13:51
us downs another iranian drone by february 28	10	$426	908	908	+0	open	—	02-18 22:03
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	7	$414	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-12 16:03
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	2	$354	4,914	4,914	+0	open	—	02-24 00:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 20:10:52	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	144	54¢	$78	0xed7274…
06-07 20:10:51	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	132	64¢	$85	0xf26e6e…
06-07 19:25:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xac7a78…
06-07 19:12:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	31	59¢	$18	0xcbf60f…
06-07 19:06:03	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xffa4dc…
06-07 19:04:49	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,000	4¢	$38	0xc403a2…
06-07 19:04:33	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x57f642…
06-07 19:02:55	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,180	5¢	$60	0xcc651f…
06-07 19:02:25	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	56	5¢	$3	0x6bb215…
06-07 19:02:00	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$44	0x9ed3dd…
06-07 18:36:42	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	31	49¢	$15	0x7910db…
06-07 18:35:45	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	44	49¢	$21	0x628b12…
06-07 18:35:43	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	1	49¢	$1	0x44a5f9…
06-07 18:35:43	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x13d92b…
06-07 18:35:36	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xf71dc6…
06-07 18:35:12	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x3649a0…
06-07 18:35:10	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	41	48¢	$20	0xcf396b…
06-07 18:34:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	128	49¢	$62	0x843582…
06-07 18:34:15	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x919379…
05-28 20:00:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,003	10¢	$200	0xb724fb…
05-07 21:01:24	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	150	10¢	$15	0x14bbcd…
05-07 18:59:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	BUY	55	7¢	$4	0xad89bc…
05-07 18:59:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	BUY	65	7¢	$5	0x8ee151…
05-07 18:58:24	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	2,426	2¢	$50	0x9fe952…
04-23 21:04:22	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,382	4¢	$50	0xcd3508…
04-12 16:03:27	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	Yes	SELL	286	21¢	$59	0x39fa8d…
04-12 15:48:11	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	Yes	SELL	184	25¢	$46	0x81ec1c…
04-12 15:44:23	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	Yes	SELL	77	27¢	$21	0x2f1772…
04-12 15:25:31	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0xcdb955…
04-12 15:13:29	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0xac7da0…
04-12 15:12:31	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	Yes	SELL	424	28¢	$119	0x9994f4…
04-12 13:51:43	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	Yes	SELL	1,000	25¢	$247	0x117878…
04-12 12:57:29	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	16¢	$160	0x704ed0…
04-12 12:57:07	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	18¢	$180	0x131b25…
04-05 13:19:53	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	697	25¢	$175	0xd48070…
04-05 13:17:19	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	786	29¢	$228	0x9db18f…
04-05 10:19:29	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,483	16¢	$237	0x60eea7…
04-03 17:33:23	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,516	85¢	$1,289	0xf143b8…
04-03 12:58:41	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,235	81¢	$1,000	0xceee70…
04-03 11:36:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	255	73¢	$186	0x580a27…
04-03 11:32:47	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x0f1a61…
04-03 11:32:25	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x17d7e1…
04-03 11:32:21	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xb04768…
04-03 11:32:15	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xf9a45c…
03-19 22:40:31	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	588	17¢	$100	0x8d2a56…
03-19 22:39:31	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	588	17¢	$100	0x28382d…
03-07 20:20:33	will iran strike israel on march 9	No	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0x759c98…
03-07 20:20:25	will iran strike israel on march 8	No	BUY	343	29¢	$100	0x325e25…
03-07 11:42:55	will iran strike israel on march 7	No	BUY	868	23¢	$200	0xacc3bb…
03-06 22:38:29	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	122	65¢	$79	0x99cce5…
03-06 22:37:59	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	21	65¢	$14	0xd0b88d…
03-06 22:17:05	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	332	72¢	$239	0x90f029…
03-06 22:15:41	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	187	73¢	$136	0x8a657f…
03-06 22:14:25	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x04fed8…
03-06 22:12:47	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	82	74¢	$61	0x50156d…
03-06 22:12:45	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	236	73¢	$171	0x87b109…
03-06 22:11:45	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	13	72¢	$10	0xe624ee…
03-06 22:11:45	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	87	72¢	$62	0xb60535…
03-06 22:11:43	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x132bbb…
03-06 22:11:39	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x77f37b…
03-05 05:27:25	will qatar strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,508	35¢	$528	0x6b397a…
03-03 21:11:07	will iran strike israel on march 3	Yes	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0xc78620…
03-03 20:59:53	will iran strike israel on march 3	Yes	BUY	17	83¢	$14	0x659380…
03-03 20:47:33	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xd714a4…
03-03 20:47:31	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0x50eefc…
03-03 20:47:25	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	24	89¢	$21	0x121c09…
03-03 20:34:19	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5,375	1¢	$42	0x845bc7…
03-03 20:34:17	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	SELL	1,646	2¢	$33	0x29c0ca…
03-03 19:28:57	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	310	8¢	$25	0x56ef12…
03-03 19:28:55	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	375	5¢	$18	0x359b98…
03-03 19:26:49	will france strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	324	20¢	$65	0x39689d…
03-03 15:35:23	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	103	20¢	$20	0x246ad1…
03-03 15:34:51	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	901	19¢	$171	0xf69051…
03-03 15:32:41	will qatar strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	3,017	67¢	$2,021	0xcc6496…
03-03 14:56:03	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	170	22¢	$37	0x047799…
03-03 14:55:53	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x9886a6…
03-03 14:55:45	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x64b353…
03-03 14:55:43	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	95	22¢	$21	0x00c7a6…
03-03 14:55:29	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	164	22¢	$36	0xc532b3…
03-03 14:54:17	will qatar strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	632	77¢	$486	0xa26eb2…
03-03 14:31:05	will france strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	2,439	26¢	$628	0x15bf15…
03-03 14:28:21	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5,000	10¢	$515	0x0b1cbc…
03-03 14:17:57	will qatar strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	547	87¢	$476	0xa8cf17…
03-03 14:17:57	will qatar strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	85	87¢	$74	0x0b46ba…
03-02 22:28:35	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x630782…
03-02 22:16:23	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x07f2a3…
03-02 22:15:51	will uk strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	344	15¢	$52	0xbaad61…
03-02 22:09:07	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x717994…
03-02 20:13:01	will france strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x5aa661…
03-01 23:42:37	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0xf15b26…
03-01 23:41:43	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xb4a991…
03-01 23:41:41	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	900	26¢	$230	0x41d54f…
03-01 23:39:09	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	SELL	1,025	45¢	$463	0xadabf7…
03-01 23:35:51	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xb5da1f…
03-01 23:32:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0xdc6324…
03-01 23:14:29	will uk strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	123	27¢	$33	0x618dec…
03-01 23:11:43	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x7b14fd…
03-01 23:09:13	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	BUY	83	35¢	$29	0x3fdb60…
03-01 22:54:03	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	BUY	19	41¢	$8	0x9e1af8…
03-01 22:53:57	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xb6a60a…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	96	$15.4M	21,707	06-10 02:49
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	91	$865.0K	15,175	06-10 01:20
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	86	$166.8K	14,160	03-28 06:31
Naive-Waterwheel 0x10b2…4ceb	85	$28.4K	1,976	06-09 23:46
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	82	$132.0K	677	06-08 21:52
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	81	$302.0K	24,314	06-01 04:50
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	81	$41.5K	20,738	04-25 16:15
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	81	$19.7K	7,634	06-10 00:51