Absolute-Lard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

96.0%

Resolved

113

Trades

132

lifetime

Volume

$1.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-21 05:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Other

56% 96% +$3

Politics

30% 88% -$33

Crypto

13% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No		+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	10-08 17:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$113	56	56	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 07:29
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$87	45	45	+0	No	+$0	08-26 16:43
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	2	$78	39	39	+0	No	+$1	10-01 06:02
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	1	$48	48	0	+48	Yes	+$0	09-04 06:17
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	1	$47	48	0	+48	Yes	+$0	08-05 00:54
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$46	46	0	+46	No	+$0	08-22 00:14
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	1	$44	45	0	+45	No	+$2	08-13 20:18
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	08-10 03:55
Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	2	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$0	09-29 07:01
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$42	51	0	+51	Yes	-$42	10-15 07:11
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	09-14 20:12
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	08-28 22:05
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	1	$32	33	0	+33	No	+$0	09-21 21:13
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$31	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	06-26 23:29
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	1	$30	31	0	+31	No	+$0	06-30 03:59
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-31 09:47
will meta dip to 500 in july 2026	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	07-31 12:42
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	09-29 06:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September?	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	09-29 06:21
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	09-23 17:16
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	10-08 17:53
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	08-27 13:40
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$8	8	0	+8	Yes	+$0	05-14 18:14
nflx above 40 on february 27 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	Yes	+$0	02-24 19:01
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	2	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-05 23:34
si hit 40 low jan 2026 159 697 786	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-23 09:28
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?	1	$7	7	0	+7	Yes	+$0	09-02 22:07
aapl above 310 on january 30 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	01-17 12:49
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	2	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-09 11:03
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-07 16:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 05:05:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	9	17¢	$2	0x6f475b…
10-15 07:11:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	51	83¢	$42	0xec586f…
10-08 17:53:50	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd98142…
10-05 07:29:35	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0x5ed1ad…
10-05 00:12:44	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x95da26…
10-01 06:02:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x8fb356…
10-01 03:05:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x4ce9c7…
09-30 20:13:44	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x18d81c…
09-30 02:06:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0xf4b491…
09-29 07:01:56	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$21	0x3256cb…
09-29 06:21:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xc4900d…
09-29 06:20:17	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x033976…
09-28 14:35:24	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$21	0x3c8049…
09-25 04:41:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x69bb3c…
09-23 23:29:31	Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x5ed62c…
09-23 17:16:50	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xed60a7…
09-23 12:20:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xa8a467…
09-23 12:12:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3bcb53…
09-22 23:43:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xaed261…
09-21 21:13:16	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$32	0xdb0267…
09-18 02:38:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x321809…
09-14 20:12:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x44d156…
09-12 18:50:01	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe3556e…
09-10 08:56:55	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa6b276…
09-04 06:17:03	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x891479…
09-02 22:07:13	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x597d92…
08-28 22:05:28	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0xc49795…
08-27 13:40:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x53fda9…
08-27 09:13:30	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4782c6…
08-26 16:43:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	97¢	$43	0xcbaf99…
08-26 02:06:21	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0x2a8e8e…
08-24 04:55:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	45	97¢	$43	0x3e3101…
08-23 17:57:51	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x05d424…
08-22 18:56:03	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	0¢	$0	0x1f5f70…
08-22 17:17:24	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	371	0¢	$0	0x109a89…
08-22 00:14:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x3b1f58…
08-20 16:21:45	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$1	0xf9ee52…
08-20 07:24:27	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	139	0¢	$0	0x879d91…
08-20 07:12:10	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x978e54…
08-20 07:12:10	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x1b1a90…
08-20 07:10:28	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2853c5…
08-20 07:01:30	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x640add…
08-20 06:51:55	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	0¢	$0	0xe2eacf…
08-13 22:13:21	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	320	0¢	$0	0xdba087…
08-13 20:18:57	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0x3a8678…
08-10 03:55:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x7d0030…
08-05 15:34:20	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x76c670…
08-05 10:22:20	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xac08f1…
08-05 00:54:42	Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	BUY	48	100¢	$47	0x158373…
08-04 02:00:57	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x52420f…
08-03 15:16:27	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe2f293…
07-31 12:42:06	will meta dip to 500 in july 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x26b12a…
07-31 05:37:11	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x613e45…
07-28 19:38:28	will spy dip to 690 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3be904…
07-28 14:41:34	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x84a0b5…
07-27 23:00:30	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcd12b7…
07-25 11:25:52	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6a90f6…
07-24 02:16:19	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbf1ddc…
07-24 00:01:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0efa4c…
07-22 19:15:46	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x95f06a…
07-21 18:48:00	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x315ce6…
07-20 12:29:22	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf36784…
07-02 15:32:20	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x704f5c…
06-30 03:59:13	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	BUY	31	100¢	$30	0x2e2583…
06-28 04:33:31	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc76c80…
06-27 15:42:13	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xc6d44a…
06-27 09:56:04	will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfcbd59…
06-26 23:29:01	Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$31	0xcdd32d…
05-31 09:47:04	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xf703e0…
05-15 06:00:13	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd2afa1…
05-15 03:01:22	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x69cd7e…
05-14 18:14:39	Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x108adb…
05-09 22:26:11	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xff95af…
05-09 11:03:50	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x605232…
05-09 10:34:03	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfa48a9…
05-08 13:18:15	Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf12953…
05-07 16:58:13	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd1fd2a…
05-06 11:03:30	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xea87c3…
05-05 23:34:36	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0539ae…
05-05 17:36:58	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc92125…
05-05 12:46:12	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xafa977…
04-26 01:19:44	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xed84a8…
04-23 01:12:28	Will XRP reach $2.80 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0a728d…
04-21 03:36:02	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x96e3c8…
04-20 14:30:02	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x34c184…
04-19 20:07:50	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x308ae0…
04-19 08:01:16	Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb27b7e…
04-18 10:53:40	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1f51e6…
04-17 09:53:28	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xae855f…
04-17 03:11:14	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3e6365…
04-15 12:47:28	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xedfa46…
04-14 23:28:36	Will Solana reach $150 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0x2c7c09…
04-13 02:38:05	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3441cb…
04-06 09:33:35	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x171c88…
03-28 19:56:16	will bnb dip to 500 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8ed7de…
03-27 17:43:31	tsla above 470 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x2db849…
03-26 23:38:01	will solana dip to 40 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9f34b4…
03-24 05:22:27	will xrp dip to 0pt4 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf1d31b…
03-23 06:37:59	will solana reach 130 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcb052d…
03-20 16:57:11	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x09a514…