Different-Jury — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.88K

Unrealized P&L

-$458

Hit rate

47.9%

Resolved

674

Trades

2,079

lifetime

Volume

$14.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$449

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-20 20:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Other

71% 34% -$417

Sports

15% 55% -$1,161

Tech

9% 50% -$204

Politics

3% 100% +$121

Crypto

1% 0% -$217

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	-880	-$158	43¢	$-378	-$220	05-20 14:06
Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	+1,000	$50	5¢	$46	-$4	07-09 16:57
Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	+200	$105	6¢	$12	-$93	07-01 10:32
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	+200	$104	3¢	$6	-$98	06-13 05:28
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes	+313	$50	2¢	$6	-$44	06-15 09:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	12	$618	0	854	-854	Yes	-$236	05-23 06:35
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	2	$398	250	250	+0	open	—	10-20 20:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$397	204	204	+0	Yes	+$10	03-02 08:14
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	10	$385	450	450	+0	No	+$30	04-21 10:33
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$297	870	870	+0	No	-$34	07-12 03:26
will italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	18	$293	1,076	1,076	+0	No	+$145	02-19 23:14
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 26?	3	$267	150	148	+2	Yes	+$31	04-26 10:17
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	12	$232	400	200	+200	Yes	+$241	02-02 08:46
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26?	5	$230	120	128	-8	Yes	+$18	04-26 05:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$217	400	0	+400	Yes	-$217	05-23 05:08
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	3	$201	233	0	+233	Yes	+$32	05-30 10:35
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	37	$200	1,500	1,500	-0	No	+$2	03-02 08:42
will germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	11	$182	600	600	+0	No	-$98	02-12 21:54
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	13	$180	450	450	+0	No	-$27	06-10 08:36
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	5	$167	0	769	-769	No	+$167	02-27 02:01
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 26?	3	$166	99	97	+1	Yes	+$29	04-26 10:17
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$165	0	1,600	-1,600	Yes	-$1,435	07-01 10:13
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	3	$158	0	880	-880	open	—	05-20 14:06
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$155	400	1,030	-630	No	+$51	04-15 11:24
will germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	8	$145	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$65	02-13 16:17
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1	$111	0	300	-300	No	+$111	01-14 02:09
Discord IPO before 2027?	2	$105	200	0	+200	open	—	07-01 10:32
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	1	$104	200	0	+200	open	—	06-13 05:28
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 26?	7	$101	73	71	+1	Yes	+$43	04-26 10:18
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28?	3	$100	100	100	+0	Yes	+$74	05-28 20:17
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 26?	4	$99	80	80	+0	Yes	+$61	04-26 10:18
highest temperature in atlanta on april 18 2026 86 87f	5	$86	109	48	+61	No	-$35	04-18 08:14
highest temperature in houston on april 19 2026 72 73f	6	$82	117	42	+75	No	-$39	04-19 10:05
highest temperature in chengdu on april 22 2026 23c	11	$82	62	61	+1	Yes	+$41	04-22 11:38
highest temperature in guangzhou on april 22 2026 30c	4	$78	59	57	+2	Yes	+$38	04-22 14:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 20:02:36	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	250	79¢	$198	0xf7d890…
08-19 21:12:06	Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	211	5¢	$11	0x320127…
08-06 16:31:09	Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	222	7¢	$16	0x6422fc…
08-05 22:06:33	Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	198	7¢	$14	0x7fbb9d…
08-05 08:44:41	Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	87	5¢	$4	0x3be55a…
07-14 22:06:01	Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0xb67a45…
07-12 03:26:04	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	870	15¢	$131	0xb8d255…
07-09 16:57:04	Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	851	5¢	$43	0xdf0675…
07-07 12:24:22	Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0x72ef50…
07-01 10:32:20	Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	144	52¢	$75	0xa864f0…
07-01 10:17:14	Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,592	4¢	$59	0xac88db…
07-01 10:14:35	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	870	19¢	$165	0x4de8e9…
07-01 10:13:58	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,600	10¢	$165	0xbc71f8…
07-01 10:10:32	Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x10965b…
06-30 02:52:19	Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0x8f2e24…
06-28 15:35:22	Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	140	5¢	$7	0xff0a80…
06-27 20:24:50	Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	56	52¢	$30	0xa949bd…
06-25 19:36:05	Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xaa66ed…
06-25 15:01:55	Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x4ef4d6…
06-15 09:30:10	Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	16¢	$4	0xc79ab0…
06-15 06:35:09	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	13	34¢	$5	0x74eeef…
06-15 06:35:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x176c27…
06-15 06:35:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x173e5f…
06-15 04:50:39	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x26fbba…
06-15 03:06:30	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x4519e2…
06-15 02:01:25	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0x1c5dda…
06-14 20:53:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xf8bf48…
06-14 20:53:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x24b36a…
06-14 20:32:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x2cd794…
06-14 20:17:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xbdcf6a…
06-14 20:06:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe248a6…
06-14 15:26:30	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	23	36¢	$8	0x9b519b…
06-14 14:35:57	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x5c6dce…
06-14 13:03:13	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0xbcf534…
06-14 12:38:55	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x79bfc1…
06-14 12:14:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x6d8298…
06-14 11:30:52	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x971b49…
06-14 11:30:52	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x71e6c1…
06-14 11:30:39	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xdf95d5…
06-14 11:30:39	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	14	45¢	$6	0x7066f2…
06-14 11:24:49	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x8f784a…
06-14 11:24:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x18ab0e…
06-14 11:24:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xbbfedc…
06-14 11:23:46	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xc2e44c…
06-14 11:23:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x656e19…
06-14 11:23:21	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x1583a0…
06-14 11:22:46	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x491157…
06-14 11:19:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x56d3bc…
06-14 10:51:06	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x69a661…
06-14 10:14:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x2f2692…
06-14 10:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3f14f7…
06-14 10:01:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x4143f3…
06-14 09:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xc6fb84…
06-14 09:57:09	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?	No	SELL	9	54¢	$5	0xc5e004…
06-14 09:57:09	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x2d8c6a…
06-14 09:57:09	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?	No	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x2d8c6a…
06-14 09:49:43	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xf8106c…
06-14 09:49:43	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf4764d…
06-14 09:49:43	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xd4beca…
06-14 09:45:24	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x28fc62…
06-14 09:43:04	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$0	0xdbd162…
06-14 09:43:03	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x00c5d5…
06-14 09:40:51	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0xed4885…
06-14 09:37:21	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14?	No	BUY	14	47¢	$7	0xea3e04…
06-14 09:10:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x826ba0…
06-14 09:07:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14?	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x616989…
06-14 09:07:09	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x5e22dd…
06-14 09:05:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xe19e78…
06-14 09:02:04	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xc6ce74…
06-14 09:01:25	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14?	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xeb8c8c…
06-14 09:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0xc4c06e…
06-14 08:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14?	No	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x58054c…
06-14 08:57:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0c12e1…
06-14 08:56:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14?	No	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x26c199…
06-14 08:54:04	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xa3588f…
06-14 08:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0xd676a6…
06-14 08:50:43	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x05daba…
06-14 08:46:00	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x9ee5ab…
06-14 08:45:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xdb7b41…
06-14 08:45:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb01e18…
06-14 08:44:18	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x8f12d2…
06-14 08:42:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0xfeb3dd…
06-14 08:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xd48b67…
06-14 08:39:51	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2b3915…
06-14 08:39:31	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x454b0f…
06-14 08:37:25	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14?	No	BUY	6	57¢	$4	0xe89a1b…
06-14 08:37:06	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14?	No	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0xebeb13…
06-14 08:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14?	No	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x6d75cb…
06-14 08:21:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x6223db…
06-14 08:19:52	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14?	No	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x9e7c83…
06-14 08:19:37	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14?	No	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0xf133a1…
06-14 08:18:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd293af…
06-14 08:17:31	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x30b9e8…
06-14 08:16:18	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	1	43¢	$0	0x0c303f…
06-14 08:16:15	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0xd3ca2b…
06-14 08:16:15	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x79aa8e…
06-14 08:15:31	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14?	No	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0x1348d7…
06-14 08:13:31	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x891adf…
06-14 08:12:36	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	14	41¢	$6	0xccedb6…
06-14 08:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x1fb742…