Tough-Hammer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40.0K

Unrealized P&L

-$123

Hit rate

94.7%

Resolved

1,481

Trades

19,021

lifetime

Volume

$19.7M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.04K

Open exposure

$3.56K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-27 03:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 274 days

Categories

Other

57% 88% -$75,478

Crypto

40% 96% +$30,020

Politics

3% 78% +$5,719

Sports

0% 33% -$286

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 306 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	-2,593	-$1,916	79¢	$-2049	-$133	10-02 12:25
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	+1,418	$1,413	100¢	$1.4K	+$3	10-26 17:42
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	+100	$93	100¢	$100	+$7	10-27 03:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	84	$574.0K	290,879	290,879	+0	Yes	+$3,565	06-26 00:51
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	159	$266.1K	133,850	133,850	+0	Yes	+$1,310	06-27 22:57
fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	2	$215.8K	108,018	108,018	+0	Under	+$0	06-30 03:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	80	$211.0K	123,784	116,413	+7,371	Yes	+$2,077	06-16 16:53
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	119	$169.2K	148,385	25,000	+123,385	Yes	+$4,130	06-28 03:48
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	81	$169.2K	85,112	85,112	+0	Yes	+$886	06-27 04:36
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	50	$144.3K	146,262	0	+146,262	Yes	+$1,943	06-23 17:28
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	9	$144.2K	73,045	73,045	+0	Yes	+$1,714	06-17 02:42
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	52	$141.1K	147,664	0	+147,664	Yes	+$6,541	06-25 02:36
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	44	$134.3K	144,618	0	+144,618	Yes	+$10,328	06-23 01:25
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	25	$128.6K	126,648	3,000	+123,648	Yes	+$1,079	06-22 02:53
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	77	$128.2K	133,067	0	+133,067	Yes	+$4,856	06-24 03:57
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	377	$126.1K	126,229	0	+126,229	Yes	+$126	06-28 21:03
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	225	$123.9K	127,411	127,411	+0	No	-$113,881	07-01 21:59
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	251	$123.8K	124,436	0	+124,436	Yes	+$598	06-23 05:01
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	17	$122.7K	122,873	0	+122,873	Yes	+$182	06-21 16:31
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	59	$121.1K	112,525	10,000	+102,525	Yes	+$1,381	06-26 20:58
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	126	$117.8K	121,347	0	+121,347	Yes	+$3,584	06-24 23:33
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	169	$117.1K	122,629	0	+122,629	Yes	+$5,575	07-01 03:54
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	150	$115.2K	94,701	20,823	+73,879	No	+$239	06-12 14:48
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	50	$112.0K	113,125	0	+113,125	Yes	+$1,136	06-16 23:49
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	31	$111.0K	111,665	0	+111,665	Yes	+$626	06-15 04:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	112	$110.8K	102,493	15,514	+86,980	No	+$2,222	05-31 21:38
bitcoin above 62k on march 12	83	$109.8K	58,482	51,527	+6,955	Yes	+$65	03-12 10:42
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	83	$109.8K	111,011	0	+111,011	Yes	+$1,191	06-15 01:03
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	496	$109.2K	109,404	0	+109,404	Yes	+$197	06-14 06:19
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	32	$104.3K	104,934	0	+104,934	Yes	+$662	06-23 00:14
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	40	$102.3K	104,085	0	+104,085	Yes	+$1,782	06-13 02:52
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	31	$101.5K	102,517	0	+102,517	Yes	+$1,003	06-24 20:52
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	32	$101.1K	101,241	0	+101,241	Yes	+$107	06-15 18:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 05:38:59	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x91c075…
10-27 03:41:53	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x8e8a45…
10-27 03:28:45	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	553	100¢	$550	0xecc03e…
10-27 03:27:51	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	648	99¢	$644	0x5f113b…
10-27 03:24:41	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	222	99¢	$221	0x31a0b9…
10-27 02:56:09	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0x55c2fb…
10-27 02:56:02	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	222	99¢	$221	0x12af31…
10-27 02:55:57	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$55	0x3cf7e7…
10-27 02:49:35	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x32192d…
10-27 02:35:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	No	SELL	574	98¢	$560	0x05736c…
10-27 02:17:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	223	100¢	$222	0xe7d980…
10-27 02:16:00	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	390	99¢	$388	0x2f641f…
10-27 02:13:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	No	SELL	300	98¢	$293	0x312678…
10-27 02:12:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	No	SELL	288	98¢	$281	0x4d2b76…
10-27 01:33:17	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	106	99¢	$105	0x75af3e…
10-27 01:28:59	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x73a3bb…
10-27 01:28:59	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0x1895a1…
10-27 01:28:08	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x4a8cfe…
10-27 01:28:08	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x41b478…
10-27 01:27:05	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0x3a4455…
10-27 01:22:18	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xe6e028…
10-27 01:22:06	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xeb2071…
10-27 01:22:05	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xa4d7a0…
10-27 01:22:05	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x8b38b5…
10-27 01:22:05	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x7b4159…
10-27 01:22:03	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x7b8faa…
10-27 01:22:03	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4b4e79…
10-27 01:21:06	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x1b11c0…
10-27 01:21:03	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x29eeb2…
10-27 00:33:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	214	98¢	$209	0xfe92c3…
10-27 00:32:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	384	98¢	$374	0x69ad9c…
10-27 00:31:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	314	97¢	$305	0x920c87…
10-27 00:31:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	250	97¢	$242	0x23d252…
10-26 23:50:17	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2c9f41…
10-26 23:30:51	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0x5ea973…
10-26 18:51:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	SELL	772	98¢	$754	0x89972e…
10-26 17:42:45	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xb77db4…
10-26 17:41:33	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x851c6a…
10-26 17:15:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	SELL	495	98¢	$483	0x452a5a…
10-26 17:09:30	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0xd8da1f…
10-26 17:01:05	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	555	100¢	$554	0xb14190…
10-26 16:56:17	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0xbb673e…
10-26 16:56:14	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x499053…
10-26 16:55:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	958	100¢	$956	0x4a74ed…
10-26 16:45:42	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	577	100¢	$574	0x24c386…
10-26 16:41:00	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x17c035…
10-26 16:35:32	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	513	100¢	$512	0x8cc9e7…
10-26 16:33:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x5854ed…
10-26 16:31:42	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1,208	100¢	$1,204	0x2de8af…
10-26 16:30:39	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1,208	100¢	$1,202	0x44dbd0…
10-26 16:11:59	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1,922	99¢	$1,903	0x6c8cd3…
10-26 16:11:57	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	4,284	98¢	$4,190	0xc713f9…
10-26 16:09:29	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	550	98¢	$537	0xa031df…
10-26 16:09:02	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1,102	100¢	$1,097	0xbd41de…
10-26 16:00:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	SELL	142	86¢	$122	0x6effe7…
10-26 15:59:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	SELL	1,145	86¢	$985	0xfb9d10…
10-26 15:52:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	SELL	64	87¢	$56	0xb78e1c…
10-26 15:44:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	SELL	594	88¢	$523	0xf32186…
10-26 15:43:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	BUY	1,272	98¢	$1,242	0x6ebed4…
10-26 15:42:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	BUY	644	88¢	$567	0x64184a…
10-26 15:42:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	BUY	1,301	88¢	$1,145	0x65565e…
10-26 03:09:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	1,841	100¢	$1,839	0xc0e4b6…
10-26 03:07:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x563f66…
10-26 03:07:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe7de37…
10-26 03:07:41	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x374ea8…
10-26 03:07:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x454d5f…
10-26 03:07:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x82d384…
10-26 03:07:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5c7d21…
10-26 03:06:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xae4488…
10-26 03:06:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xd9ff4d…
10-26 03:06:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x83a372…
10-26 03:06:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	371	100¢	$370	0x35a312…
10-26 02:48:39	Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	10,060	99¢	$9,969	0x39b6f6…
10-26 02:38:24	Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	125	97¢	$121	0x80103a…
10-26 02:38:02	Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x2a9312…
10-26 02:37:39	Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x06c695…
10-26 02:36:20	Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	1,000	97¢	$970	0x77eb32…
10-26 02:35:14	Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	146	96¢	$140	0xe5cff2…
10-26 02:31:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	4,970	99¢	$4,945	0xd1953c…
10-26 02:27:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	7,857	100¢	$7,841	0x38a0be…
10-26 02:27:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$45	0x3d3f17…
10-26 02:03:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0xcc29eb…
10-26 01:02:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	254	100¢	$253	0x6b2e0c…
10-26 01:00:00	Will Atlas FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xf60aed…
10-26 01:00:00	Will Atlas FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x054683…
10-26 00:57:21	Will Atlas FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x11c22a…
10-26 00:28:11	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x474657…
10-26 00:28:11	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	190	100¢	$190	0x27fab0…
10-26 00:23:50	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x855c24…
10-26 00:23:50	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x6544ed…
10-26 00:23:50	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x2c9c32…
10-26 00:21:47	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	84	100¢	$84	0xbda7a6…
10-26 00:04:15	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd4b48c…
10-26 00:03:41	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x02b283…
10-26 00:03:30	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x153ab3…
10-26 00:00:14	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	49	100¢	$49	0x6a97e5…
10-25 23:37:59	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	515	100¢	$514	0xebf4df…
10-25 22:42:00	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	228	100¢	$228	0x224f7f…
10-25 22:36:03	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	92	100¢	$92	0x213a26…
10-25 21:57:56	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xfa0725…