Dark-Processing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$46

Unrealized P&L

-$91

Hit rate

96.0%

Resolved

110

Trades

144

lifetime

Volume

$2.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-29 09:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Politics

37% 100% +$12

Other

30% 100% +$20

Tech

19% 100% +$2

Crypto

13% 97% -$79

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+107	$92	1¢	$1	-$91	10-27 18:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	2	$184	92	92	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 18:24
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	3	$178	97	97	+0	No	+$3	10-19 20:31
gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	3	$175	176	0	+176	No	+$1	06-26 04:37
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	1	$149	149	0	+149	Yes	+$0	06-08 20:39
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$125	138	0	+138	Yes	+$12	05-16 21:27
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	3	$123	64	64	+0	No	+$5	09-30 12:04
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$107	107	0	+107	Yes	+$1	10-26 00:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	1	$105	111	0	+111	No	+$6	05-20 01:31
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$92	107	0	+107	open	—	10-27 18:31
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$81	117	0	+117	No	-$81	07-23 11:50
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$77	78	0	+78	No	+$1	09-30 18:30
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	10-29 09:32
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	1	$54	54	0	+54	No	+$0	05-30 17:05
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	1	$52	53	0	+53	No	+$0	06-28 13:09
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	06-29 21:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	1	$45	47	0	+47	Yes	+$2	05-20 13:59
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	2	$45	23	23	+0	Yes	+$0	10-12 23:28
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$42	43	0	+43	Yes	+$0	05-25 13:04
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	06-28 13:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-15 13:15
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$29	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	05-09 11:21
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	3	$28	14	14	+0	Yes	+$0	09-30 14:05
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	1	$24	25	0	+25	No	+$0	06-08 08:29
will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	2	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	09-30 20:30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$22	22	0	+22	Yes	+$0	06-28 21:08
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	09-29 12:59
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	06-29 03:02
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	2	$19	9	9	+0	open	—	10-13 07:02
meta above 780 on january 30 2026	2	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	01-24 03:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	09-30 23:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:32:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x407a25…
10-28 08:15:28	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0xf794db…
10-28 04:46:53	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0xecddd2…
10-27 21:55:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0xcffda4…
10-27 18:31:30	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	107	86¢	$92	0x996a1b…
10-26 00:03:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	107	99¢	$107	0x3101d8…
10-19 20:31:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	21	93¢	$19	0xa354a9…
10-19 20:31:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	77	93¢	$72	0x10991b…
10-19 17:05:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	97	90¢	$87	0x3044d3…
10-17 23:22:48	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe40a9e…
10-16 16:52:37	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x22d6d3…
10-13 18:31:46	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0x5928fb…
10-13 07:02:25	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xeeac3f…
10-12 23:28:35	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0xdf492a…
10-12 20:26:02	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	97¢	$23	0x306b06…
10-11 12:35:10	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf4e54f…
10-09 15:55:00	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $60M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x299c97…
10-08 17:17:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x71b062…
10-08 15:35:57	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5bce7d…
10-05 18:24:26	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	92	100¢	$92	0x5ab24e…
10-04 23:40:10	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x4947c7…
10-04 17:15:17	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x146d06…
09-30 23:53:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xe418f0…
09-30 20:30:14	will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	14	84¢	$11	0xaf460f…
09-30 18:30:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x837d06…
09-30 14:05:47	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xfcf186…
09-30 12:04:36	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x2088de…
09-30 11:59:21	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x627018…
09-30 06:35:53	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x30e039…
09-29 12:59:18	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x6cceca…
09-28 17:04:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x10957c…
09-27 08:30:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6c1e7d…
09-27 02:03:36	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xadab3a…
09-25 15:01:09	will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	14	84¢	$11	0x725173…
09-25 00:23:11	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	64	91¢	$59	0xe3353d…
09-24 08:04:11	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbcbc8d…
07-23 11:50:39	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0x8b8439…
07-22 21:09:34	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	92	69¢	$64	0x714edb…
07-21 22:45:51	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x1ee253…
07-21 16:45:28	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x69e11c…
07-21 14:01:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$6	0x7e212f…
07-21 12:26:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4c5110…
07-16 18:06:53	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xf0450a…
07-16 12:57:02	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xcab56d…
06-29 21:19:02	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc9c4f4…
06-29 03:02:52	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x3b5645…
06-28 21:08:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xc60674…
06-28 13:36:31	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x305d78…
06-28 13:09:58	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$52	0xfcede0…
06-26 04:37:05	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9eea9b…
06-26 04:05:55	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xe821fe…
06-25 23:13:07	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	145	99¢	$144	0x5c6d65…
06-08 20:39:54	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x2766db…
06-08 08:29:13	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0x7d590d…
05-30 17:05:43	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0xf7ceaf…
05-25 13:04:45	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	43	100¢	$42	0x10e521…
05-25 02:33:30	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7fc4e2…
05-20 13:59:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	47	97¢	$45	0x854717…
05-20 01:31:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	111	95¢	$105	0x9fe01e…
05-18 06:14:58	Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd3b688…
05-16 21:27:04	Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	91¢	$125	0xfc4d77…
05-15 13:15:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x35be7b…
05-09 11:21:14	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0xc247a4…
05-08 07:23:32	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x119e92…
05-07 13:18:09	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x225ab7…
05-07 06:35:58	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x691dde…
05-06 15:37:33	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x602bef…
05-06 13:39:40	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3e5528…
04-16 00:02:00	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x52a302…
04-15 19:46:56	Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xe192b4…
04-15 19:00:40	Will XRP reach $2.20 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x460e09…
04-15 00:34:52	Will Solana dip to $20 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2daf4c…
04-14 23:58:34	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x68b1d3…
04-14 15:48:01	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x20a55b…
04-14 00:13:33	Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x49f7e0…
04-13 08:23:17	Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xa87857…
04-12 00:15:21	Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x84198b…
04-11 22:19:43	Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1c5cff…
04-11 13:11:35	Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x79f49b…
04-10 09:54:11	Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x674433…
04-10 06:29:27	Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc6358e…
04-10 06:05:05	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x58abb0…
04-08 22:48:19	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd84a8e…
04-07 02:10:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xab1683…
04-06 19:16:17	Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb225a9…
04-06 16:11:07	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x72007f…
04-06 00:05:11	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x313526…
04-05 23:16:45	will the reserve bank of india decrease the policy repo rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0999d5…
04-05 20:32:19	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3144bb…
03-28 14:55:01	will openai have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1ea0f2…
03-27 19:30:13	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x65e533…
03-27 03:15:57	will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x26df8c…
03-27 01:03:53	will xrp reach 2pt4 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x80b9c4…
03-26 21:48:03	will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x835973…
03-26 05:47:03	will openai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0d2dcd…
03-25 21:10:39	nflx above 140 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x99a645…
03-25 17:48:47	aapl above 210 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x75fa16…
03-25 06:07:45	will deepseek have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x98d24a…
03-24 23:59:27	will mistral have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x100ac9…
03-24 22:58:53	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x728387…