Curvy-Bifocals — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.3%

Resolved

Trades

180

lifetime

Volume

$1.67K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 05-16 05:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 47% +$2

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 100 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET	4	$132	111	111	+0	Up	+$26	05-13 03:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2AM ET	2	$113	73	73	+0	Down	+$33	05-12 07:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9PM ET	4	$89	87	87	+0	Up	+$7	05-13 01:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	4	$77	57	57	+0	Up	+$17	05-11 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	4	$76	94	94	+0	Down	+$15	05-11 10:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7PM ET	2	$73	43	43	+0	Down	+$13	05-12 00:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8PM ET	2	$56	36	36	+0	Down	+$16	05-12 01:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12AM ET	1	$54	129	0	+129	Down	$-54	05-13 04:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	12	$52	174	9	+165	Up	$-42	05-13 03:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	6	$50	36	36	+0	Up	+$6	05-11 09:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5AM ET	4	$45	32	32	+0	Down	+$19	05-12 10:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	4	$44	27	27	+0	Down	+$2	05-11 08:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4AM ET	3	$40	14	37	-23	Down	+$12	05-12 09:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$39	215	215	+0	open	—	05-10 22:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	2	$35	21	21	+0	Up	+$5	05-11 11:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9PM ET	2	$34	24	24	+0	Down	+$14	05-12 02:04
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	1	$33	88	0	+88	open	—	05-16 05:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	3	$30	28	28	+0	Down	+$18	05-11 04:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	4	$28	45	20	+25	Up	+$2	05-11 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	2	$28	23	23	+0	Up	+$8	05-12 12:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET	3	$26	16	16	+0	Down	+$6	05-12 14:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	5	$25	104	4	+100	Down	$-19	05-12 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12AM ET	1	$25	47	0	+47	Up	$-25	05-12 04:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	3	$24	18	18	-0	Down	+$11	05-11 04:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	3	$20	70	0	+70	Up	$-20	05-12 14:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	4	$20	17	17	+0	Down	+$8	05-11 03:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	2	$18	22	22	+0	Up	+$6	05-11 03:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11PM ET	2	$17	11	11	+0	Down	+$5	05-12 04:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5PM ET	2	$16	11	11	+0	Up	+$6	05-12 23:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7AM ET	2	$15	23	0	+23	Up	$-15	05-12 11:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 05:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	Up	BUY	88	38¢	$33	0xf64c76…
05-13 04:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	129	42¢	$54	0xf079a4…
05-13 03:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0xdc32cb…
05-13 03:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0x923c13…
05-13 03:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x920af5…
05-13 03:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x4e606f…
05-13 03:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	24	11¢	$3	0x273243…
05-13 03:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xd42d8e…
05-13 03:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x2a3257…
05-13 03:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xad2232…
05-13 03:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xd5e0ac…
05-13 03:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x5d6481…
05-13 03:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	51¢	$5	0x8097c6…
05-13 03:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x22ea56…
05-13 03:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	83	91¢	$76	0xa5178f…
05-13 03:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET	Down	SELL	28	10¢	$3	0x6c3788…
05-13 03:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	28	47¢	$13	0x7f072b…
05-13 03:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	83	48¢	$40	0x318c91…
05-13 02:56:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x6e6563…
05-13 02:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x8c681f…
05-13 01:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0x60a941…
05-13 01:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x83387c…
05-13 01:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x683f04…
05-13 01:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0xae5dc0…
05-13 00:14:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xe8ede6…
05-13 00:13:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x90e05f…
05-13 00:13:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xe2a336…
05-13 00:13:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd1c458…
05-13 00:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xecabcc…
05-12 23:26:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x90928a…
05-12 23:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x55ca46…
05-12 23:07:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5PM ET	Up	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x68a00a…
05-12 21:35:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x931687…
05-12 21:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x6c20be…
05-12 14:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xcfdcfb…
05-12 14:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x64eb81…
05-12 14:13:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x5742fe…
05-12 14:12:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xc129f9…
05-12 14:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xefd80a…
05-12 13:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xc3ba07…
05-12 13:08:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x69bdc5…
05-12 12:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	Down	SELL	23	76¢	$18	0xeed18f…
05-12 12:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x95ae47…
05-12 11:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xa383a8…
05-12 11:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x639dc5…
05-12 10:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5AM ET	Down	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x02b3a2…
05-12 09:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x5acf6d…
05-12 09:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xeacfcc…
05-12 09:04:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xada031…
05-12 09:03:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0xef0e7b…
05-12 08:52:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xed7dd8…
05-12 08:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xf2d65a…
05-12 07:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xbbfbd8…
05-12 07:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x119126…
05-12 07:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2AM ET	Down	SELL	73	100¢	$73	0xefb9d6…
05-12 06:01:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	73	54¢	$40	0x6705de…
05-12 05:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x8a518f…
05-12 05:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	71	21¢	$15	0x50237d…
05-12 05:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xbe2665…
05-12 05:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	Down	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0xa107d5…
05-12 05:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xaff7db…
05-12 04:03:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x7a5130…
05-12 04:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11PM ET	Down	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x075654…
05-12 03:04:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0xe1020f…
05-12 02:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xd0d8a5…
05-12 02:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10PM ET	Down	SELL	14	31¢	$4	0x55fef6…
05-12 02:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x0e8f10…
05-12 02:04:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x9750a3…
05-12 01:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xc21eec…
05-12 01:01:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8PM ET	Down	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x6120dd…
05-12 00:05:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xe0ca99…
05-12 00:02:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7PM ET	Down	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xc91d55…
05-11 23:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x0333fd…
05-11 23:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x47bd90…
05-11 23:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xf864b4…
05-11 23:16:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x613ea7…
05-11 23:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc275cd…
05-11 23:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x16aabd…
05-11 23:06:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x626df6…
05-11 13:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xdc02ad…
05-11 12:32:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0x61f921…
05-11 11:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xcfbd45…
05-11 11:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf37615…
05-11 11:23:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x6eb672…
05-11 11:22:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3b4958…
05-11 11:21:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xbe582c…
05-11 11:17:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x3371d3…
05-11 11:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xa2655b…
05-11 11:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb11364…
05-11 11:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xb6e466…
05-11 11:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xdcc25a…
05-11 11:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xac188a…
05-11 11:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x3d9363…
05-11 11:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x5bb133…
05-11 10:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x383701…
05-11 10:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x9fe726…
05-11 10:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	34	30¢	$10	0x547214…
05-11 10:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x3f222d…
05-11 09:15:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x39b4f9…
05-11 09:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x328ce3…