Lumbering-Graduation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.70K

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

38.8%

Resolved

5,374

Trades

92,353

lifetime

Volume

$569.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$47

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 03:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 48% -$4,685

Other

0% 80% -$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 1070 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	No	+50	$34	83¢	$42	+$7	10-09 00:21
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	+5	$1	83¢	$4	+$3	10-09 06:58
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	+5	$4	17¢	$1	-$3	10-09 06:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 09:35 UTC	358	$3.4K	6,544	0	+6,544	Down	-$47	06-18 09:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 09:00 UTC	283	$2.6K	4,984	0	+4,984	Down	-$29	06-18 09:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 18:00 UTC	410	$2.6K	5,093	0	+5,093	Up	+$9	04-14 18:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-14 15:15 UTC	481	$2.5K	5,035	0	+5,035	Up	+$13	03-14 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	231	$2.5K	4,902	0	+4,902	Up	-$7	05-25 04:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-12 02:00 UTC	390	$2.4K	4,616	0	+4,616	Down	-$62	03-12 02:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 09:45 UTC	190	$2.3K	4,365	0	+4,365	Down	-$47	06-18 09:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	344	$2.2K	4,466	0	+4,466	Up	-$13	05-26 13:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 09:15 UTC	248	$2.2K	4,219	0	+4,219	Up	$0	06-18 09:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 13:15 UTC	396	$2.1K	4,145	0	+4,145	Up	-$144	02-20 13:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 03:45 UTC	640	$2.1K	4,340	0	+4,340	Up	-$6	01-08 04:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-12 03:15 UTC	286	$2.0K	3,966	0	+3,966	Up	-$25	03-12 03:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 20:45 UTC	181	$2.0K	4,051	0	+4,051	Up	-$29	03-28 20:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-11 01:15 UTC	338	$2.0K	3,875	0	+3,875	Up	-$56	03-11 01:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	249	$2.0K	3,644	0	+3,644	Up	-$159	05-25 04:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 12:30 UTC	599	$1.9K	3,830	0	+3,830	Up	-$19	02-20 12:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 04:30 UTC	322	$1.9K	3,742	0	+3,742	Up	-$32	02-20 04:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 09:30 UTC	202	$1.8K	3,510	0	+3,510	Up	+$1	06-18 09:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-14 14:45 UTC	284	$1.7K	3,423	2	+3,421	Down	-$33	03-14 15:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 23:10 UTC	333	$1.7K	3,426	0	+3,426	Up	-$2	04-10 23:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 22:00 UTC	218	$1.7K	3,300	0	+3,300	Up	-$14	04-10 22:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-22 17:15 UTC	194	$1.7K	3,312	0	+3,312	Down	-$15	03-22 17:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	223	$1.6K	3,174	0	+3,174	Up	-$6	05-26 14:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 00:00 UTC	227	$1.6K	3,085	0	+3,085	Down	-$50	03-01 00:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 09:25 UTC	121	$1.6K	3,134	0	+3,134	Down	+$11	06-18 09:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 07:15 UTC	213	$1.6K	3,064	0	+3,064	Up	+$13	06-28 07:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 23:45 UTC	205	$1.5K	3,122	0	+3,122	Down	+$55	01-05 23:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-22 14:00 UTC	127	$1.5K	2,898	0	+2,898	Up	-$172	03-22 14:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 07:45 UTC	180	$1.5K	2,801	0	+2,801	Down	-$71	03-23 08:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 02:00 UTC	198	$1.5K	2,885	0	+2,885	Up	-$37	04-15 02:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 03:14:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf8bc56…
10-21 05:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xc9f4ba…
10-21 05:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xabf6c3…
10-21 05:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x7b59a9…
10-21 05:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0xe61d10…
10-21 05:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xdf5083…
10-21 05:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x7c88e4…
10-21 05:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xd4372a…
10-21 05:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x09edd8…
10-21 05:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x20387f…
10-21 05:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x788c78…
10-21 05:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xe34f0f…
10-21 05:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xd153eb…
10-21 05:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0xb2ff77…
10-21 05:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x6dbaf5…
10-21 05:07:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x403296…
10-21 05:07:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	15	38¢	$6	0xde08e4…
10-21 05:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xa591cc…
10-21 05:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x37670f…
10-21 05:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x1d2908…
10-21 05:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x12008f…
10-21 05:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x0df0bb…
10-21 04:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0xea5163…
10-21 04:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x81b5c2…
10-21 04:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x268377…
10-21 04:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x6d6c26…
10-21 04:38:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xd79bd2…
10-21 04:38:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0xa87aa2…
10-21 04:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0xa884d9…
10-21 04:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x42600b…
10-21 04:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0xacea83…
10-21 04:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x6ea6d8…
10-21 04:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x094edf…
10-21 04:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0xfb1e17…
10-21 04:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xd6d1dc…
10-21 04:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x66908f…
10-21 04:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0xafbf9e…
10-21 04:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x0c926b…
10-21 04:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xaf533c…
10-21 04:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0xdc1056…
10-21 04:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0xf768d5…
10-21 04:06:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xfd6534…
10-21 03:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x2a8ce6…
10-21 03:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x913a84…
10-21 03:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x419d67…
10-21 03:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x596100…
10-21 03:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x67b95c…
10-21 03:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0x46d930…
10-21 03:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0xb6ff8f…
10-21 03:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x7467d7…
10-21 03:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x80f50b…
10-21 03:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x3f76f8…
10-21 03:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	15	17¢	$3	0x510d42…
10-21 03:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	0	39¢	$0	0xe2d3ca…
10-21 03:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd2ee90…
10-21 03:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb41e5b…
10-21 03:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x9c67c8…
10-21 03:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0x4e04ab…
10-21 03:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x1fa319…
10-21 03:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xce81d7…
10-21 03:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0x123572…
10-21 03:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0xede9af…
10-21 03:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x5f37a9…
10-21 03:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0xd08ff7…
10-21 03:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x466955…
10-21 02:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x20fa20…
10-21 02:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x7b41fb…
10-21 02:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x4f150a…
10-21 02:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x4dbe36…
10-21 02:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0xfa0464…
10-21 02:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xa79821…
10-21 02:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x344327…
10-21 02:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0xd2f9df…
10-21 02:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xba9a49…
10-21 02:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xf0636a…
10-21 02:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xaa87a9…
10-21 02:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x71d0b7…
10-21 02:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0xaba141…
10-21 01:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0x104b96…
10-21 01:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	40¢	$1	0xe1b03a…
10-21 01:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x524f8c…
10-21 01:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0x38aa30…
10-21 01:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x3e1d75…
10-21 01:23:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x11c05a…
10-21 01:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xf62065…
10-21 01:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x2b4510…
10-21 01:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x807fdd…
10-21 01:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xb6ad7e…
10-21 01:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x7a760e…
10-21 01:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0xbfcbe4…
10-21 01:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	38¢	$1	0x54edb1…
10-21 01:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x06d035…
10-21 01:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0xbb9899…
10-21 01:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x28ae4e…
10-21 00:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x963ced…
10-21 00:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	6¢	$1	0xc82cad…
10-21 00:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xcf754d…
10-21 00:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0x97992f…
10-21 00:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x8bcea6…
10-21 00:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x59efec…