Realized P&L
-$1.68K
Unrealized P&L
+$254
Hit rate
54.4%
Resolved
1,071
Trades
7,893
lifetime
Volume
$82.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$823
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 11:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 212 days
Categories
Other
49% 44% -$1,692
Politics
42% 51% +$58
Sports
4% 50% -$206
Tech
3% 62% +$63
Crypto
2% 43% +$94
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
73 active days in 12wk • peak 673 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +337 $140 98¢ $329 +$189 09-30 14:19
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? No +50 $41 100¢ $50 +$9 09-24 18:27
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026? Yes +50 $10 94¢ $47 +$38 10-25 11:32
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +57 $41 72¢ $41 +$0 10-28 10:47
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? No +30 $28 90¢ $27 -$1 10-28 00:54
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +30 $26 86¢ $26 $0 10-28 08:24
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? No +20 $18 92¢ $18 +$0 10-28 00:31
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No +20 $18 87¢ $17 $0 10-28 08:49
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? No +20 $2 86¢ $17 +$15 10-05 08:03
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No +20 $16 86¢ $17 +$1 10-26 08:34
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $17 86¢ $17 +$0 10-28 08:20
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +20 $17 86¢ $17 $0 10-28 04:11
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +50 $10 33¢ $16 +$7 10-05 00:43
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +20 $16 80¢ $16 +$0 10-28 05:53
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +57 $17 28¢ $16 -$1 10-28 10:47
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +20 $16 80¢ $16 $0 10-27 23:03
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +20 $15 76¢ $15 +$0 10-28 09:43
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No +20 $16 76¢ $15 $0 10-28 04:05
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes +20 $15 74¢ $15 $0 10-28 11:14
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +20 $14 68¢ $14 $0 10-28 06:36
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? Yes +20 $18 62¢ $12 -$5 10-28 06:12
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +50 $11 23¢ $11 +$0 10-17 15:40
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? Yes +20 $11 53¢ $11 $0 10-26 01:01
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? No +9 $8 84¢ $8 +$0 10-28 12:30
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? No +20 $2 38¢ $8 +$5 10-28 06:12
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $6 32¢ $6 +$1 10-28 06:36
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? No +20 $5 26¢ $5 $0 10-28 11:14
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? No +7 $7 75¢ $5 -$2 10-27 23:27
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? Yes +20 $5 24¢ $5 -$1 10-28 09:43
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes +20 $5 24¢ $5 +$0 10-28 01:40