Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$75

Unrealized P&L

+$16

Hit rate

61.5%

Resolved

Trades

260

lifetime

Volume

$3.73K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$352

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 10-28 15:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Other

42% 43% -$138

Politics

30% 86% +$130

Tech

24% 35% -$36

Sports

3% 50% -$25

Crypto

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+133	$121	96¢	$128	+$7	10-26 23:00
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+70	$60	97¢	$67	+$7	10-26 16:06
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+47	$37	86¢	$40	+$3	07-31 19:41
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+32	$30	98¢	$31	+$1	10-26 20:36
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	+32	$30	94¢	$30	+$0	10-28 17:27
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Yes	+32	$31	94¢	$30	-$1	10-27 20:30
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+16	$15	99¢	$15	+$0	10-19 19:52
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+12	$12	94¢	$11	-$1	10-28 15:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	5	$215	212	212	+0	No	+$154	04-26 12:03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	8	$178	99	99	+0	open	—	10-27 00:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	7	$125	65	65	+0	Yes	+$3	10-07 11:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	3	$123	64	64	+0	open	—	10-28 00:00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	4	$121	133	0	+133	open	—	10-26 23:00
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	2	$118	96	96	+0	Yes	+$74	07-31 16:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	6	$118	60	60	+0	Yes	+$2	10-09 05:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	5	$92	47	47	+0	Yes	+$2	10-18 09:00
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	5	$91	47	47	+0	Yes	+$1	10-15 07:00
will meta dip to 690 by october 12 2026	6	$91	51	51	+0	No	+$1	10-15 01:00
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	3	$91	67	35	+32	open	—	10-27 20:30
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	2	$84	57	57	+0	open	—	07-10 18:30
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	4	$69	45	33	+12	open	—	10-28 15:56
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$65	253	253	+0	No	+$25	07-11 18:35
Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $6.5B and $8B at market close on IPO day?	4	$63	56	56	+0	Yes	-$4	07-30 01:00
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	4	$62	77	77	+0	No	+$2	08-01 23:00
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	4	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	10-10 23:00
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	2	$61	117	117	+0	Yes	-$12	08-05 09:00
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$60	70	0	+70	open	—	10-26 16:06
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	3	$59	36	36	+0	open	—	10-28 00:00
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?	6	$57	45	45	+0	Yes	-$10	08-07 14:00
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	5	$57	130	130	+0	No	-$57	07-01 03:57
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$50	1,111	0	+1,111	No	-$50	06-12 15:51
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	6	$47	279	279	+0	No	-$8	08-06 19:00
ms quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 3	11	$47	216	207	+9	Yes	-$17	04-06 19:35
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	2	$42	23	23	+0	open	—	06-10 20:20
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	2	$42	24	24	+0	open	—	06-10 20:21
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$41	230	222	+8	Yes	+$4	04-12 17:25
will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	2	$41	23	23	+0	No	+$3	08-10 19:00
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	1	$41	340	0	+340	No	-$41	06-08 14:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 17:31:46	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xfda6db…
10-28 17:31:43	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x7a06b5…
10-28 17:27:53	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x5475b4…
10-28 17:05:59	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	92¢	$15	0x67eb1d…
10-28 15:56:32	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x1748e1…
10-28 15:32:26	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xea452b…
10-28 00:00:44	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	33	85¢	$28	0x4a5bfc…
10-28 00:00:30	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	79¢	$10	0x24a2bf…
10-28 00:00:30	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	79¢	$18	0x07d435…
10-28 00:00:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	64	98¢	$63	0xc0e7fb…
10-27 23:56:45	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	85¢	$30	0xb4bc60…
10-27 23:56:45	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x20f704…
10-27 23:11:30	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xf880f6…
10-27 20:30:59	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xea77e7…
10-27 00:00:35	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Yes	SELL	35	86¢	$30	0x3264d4…
10-27 00:00:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x6453f9…
10-27 00:00:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	39	88¢	$34	0x635d5a…
10-27 00:00:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x569e31…
10-26 23:00:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	33	92¢	$31	0x83b17f…
10-26 22:02:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xf316b2…
10-26 21:07:06	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Yes	BUY	35	88¢	$31	0xd45ce8…
10-26 20:36:41	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x84fa38…
10-26 19:41:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xaf4bc8…
10-26 19:34:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xcd4a0f…
10-26 19:30:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	9	92¢	$9	0xa60f75…
10-26 19:13:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x22132a…
10-26 19:06:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x0ef96a…
10-26 18:04:42	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	31	95¢	$29	0x80a0ec…
10-26 16:30:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x46b1ad…
10-26 16:09:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xd238a3…
10-26 16:06:20	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0xd39dad…
10-26 16:05:35	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October?	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0xe83fc8…
10-26 15:11:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0xdde54b…
10-26 15:03:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x7d2b21…
10-26 15:02:21	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x1dd305…
10-19 19:52:44	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0xabdbd9…
10-19 17:05:20	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0x7be824…
10-19 15:47:20	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xb2f930…
10-18 09:00:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x90ef1a…
10-18 07:00:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xcde9c6…
10-16 17:04:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xa50f9b…
10-16 15:37:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xee4914…
10-16 14:10:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x43e257…
10-15 20:33:14	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $710 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$6	0x505e5e…
10-15 20:31:17	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $710 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc6ff06…
10-15 07:00:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x63d274…
10-15 05:00:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0x45dc8b…
10-15 01:00:22	will meta dip to 690 by october 12 2026	No	SELL	19	91¢	$18	0x763b55…
10-15 01:00:08	will meta dip to 690 by october 12 2026	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x390ec3…
10-14 01:00:34	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x9542ca…
10-14 01:00:21	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 14?	Yes	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x1134d0…
10-14 01:00:09	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 14?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x52e10d…
10-13 14:14:02	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x7d416d…
10-13 11:11:28	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $690 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0xf50227…
10-13 01:50:08	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $690 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x7b8919…
10-12 23:19:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0xc6b68a…
10-12 22:27:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x96f6a2…
10-12 19:06:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x2504e8…
10-12 17:00:27	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $690 Week of October 12 2026?	No	SELL	17	82¢	$14	0xdd3a46…
10-12 17:00:14	NATO downs another Russian drone by October 15?	No	SELL	18	68¢	$12	0x276eb1…
10-12 16:59:26	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $690 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x8ac5e3…
10-12 15:01:45	NATO downs another Russian drone by October 15?	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xd25112…
10-12 14:00:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x013f93…
10-10 23:00:10	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xe7fa24…
10-10 21:00:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x6e79d4…
10-10 03:22:23	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xcdabd9…
10-09 23:05:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0xbd090b…
10-09 23:00:26	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	16	54¢	$9	0xe9d4fb…
10-09 23:00:14	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x4c2fff…
10-09 22:10:01	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0x1582cd…
10-09 19:01:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0x64c361…
10-09 14:11:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x6e449e…
10-09 05:00:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0x2a9f4a…
10-09 03:00:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$13	0x29a898…
10-08 23:00:15	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x609250…
10-08 15:00:14	Will Meta (META) finish week of October 5 above $750?	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x91093a…
10-08 14:06:23	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $192 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xcae074…
10-08 13:22:03	Will Meta (META) finish week of October 5 above $750?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0x9615b6…
10-08 01:03:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	14	97¢	$13	0xd90d4f…
10-07 23:00:16	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	59¢	$11	0x66b244…
10-07 21:24:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x697e66…
10-07 20:21:35	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	86¢	$15	0xa83471…
10-07 19:10:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x66fbd3…
10-07 19:00:15	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 5 2026?	No	SELL	17	82¢	$14	0x963970…
10-07 18:46:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x1276e5…
10-07 18:21:57	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x9b7342…
10-07 15:00:13	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x412ac7…
10-07 11:00:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0xdc4bb4…
10-07 09:16:36	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x5ef35f…
10-07 09:00:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xb1705d…
10-07 09:00:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x8d0cc2…
10-06 23:03:40	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x924579…
10-06 19:00:09	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Yes	SELL	17	62¢	$10	0xfb7ac0…
10-06 09:51:04	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 14?	Yes	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0x30b6bf…
10-04 14:42:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x44386d…
10-04 05:37:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x2cd339…
10-03 19:49:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x86c6d4…
10-03 18:17:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x0af684…
10-03 13:50:59	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Yes	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0xc7160b…
09-04 15:00:09	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?	Yes	SELL	16	87¢	$14	0x46f8c7…