Messy-Swing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$50

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

92.2%

Resolved

1,021

Trades

1,128

lifetime

Volume

$3.74K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 06-16 02:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 96% -$13

Other

19% 92% -$6

Politics

12% 62% -$28

Sports

3% 61% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% 67% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-16).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No		-10	-$3	14¢	$-1	+$1	06-07 19:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	9	$117	82	67	+15	Yes	+$10	04-07 23:39
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?	2	$80	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	05-16 21:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 06:30 UTC	3	$74	68	68	+0	Up	+$6	03-29 06:35
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	04-20 20:47
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies	1	$39	40	0	+40	Colorado Rockies	+$1	05-16 22:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	3	$34	21	20	+0	Yes	+$2	04-07 23:21
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$29	100	0	+100	No	-$29	05-19 18:34
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2	$26	16	16	+0	Yes	+$6	06-10 02:31
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	3	$25	17	17	+0	open	—	06-16 02:37
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 31 2026 112	1	$24	24	0	+24	Yes	+$0	03-31 19:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:15 UTC	3	$24	20	10	+10	Down	+$3	03-29 17:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 06:45 UTC	2	$22	30	15	+15	Up	-$4	03-29 06:48
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$21	16	16	+0	Yes	+$1	03-23 08:08
cs2 keyd 9z 2026 01 22	2	$19	10	10	+0	9z	+$1	01-22 15:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$18	14	14	+0	Yes	+$8	04-07 22:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	03-27 22:02
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by march 31 117 352	3	$17	20	20	+0	No	-$3	01-31 00:46
usisrael strike yemen by march 31	2	$17	10	10	+0	No	+$2	03-31 22:03
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	1	$16	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	04-04 16:12
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$16	20	20	+0	Yes	+$8	04-07 23:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 03:20 UTC	2	$15	10	10	+0	Up	+$2	04-08 03:24
kristi noem out by march 31	4	$15	13	8	+5	Yes	-$1	03-05 19:23
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 15:20 UTC	4	$14	10	5	+5	Down	-$1	03-16 15:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 06:40 UTC	2	$12	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	03-29 06:45
cs2 sng2 forzer 2026 01 20	2	$11	6	6	+0	Sangal	+$1	01-20 17:23
cbb penn colmb 2026 01 30	2	$11	6	6	+0	Columbia Lions	+$1	01-31 01:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 02:35 UTC	2	$11	9	9	+0	Up	+$1	03-16 02:36
iran leadership change by march 31	4	$11	128	32	+96	No	-$6	03-27 22:51
cs2 mouzn bmb 2026 01 20	2	$10	5	5	+0	MOUZ NXT	+$1	01-20 14:17
dota2 liquid mouz 2026 01 20	2	$10	5	5	+0	MOUZ	+$0	01-20 15:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 02:42:24	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa050a9…
06-16 02:41:57	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x26e6e1…
06-16 02:41:48	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa00cc3…
06-16 02:41:42	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x124028…
06-16 02:41:31	Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x526f0e…
06-16 02:40:49	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xf875bb…
06-16 02:37:16	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	17	60¢	$10	0xb240f3…
06-10 02:33:01	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xcb7585…
06-10 02:31:12	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x6cad0f…
06-07 19:15:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xe1c80c…
06-07 19:15:03	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0xd0c103…
06-07 19:14:21	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xfa2493…
06-07 19:12:43	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0x7106fb…
05-28 23:08:25	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x7cb0b4…
05-27 22:50:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x23795f…
05-27 22:50:26	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xf156e3…
05-21 15:16:54	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5404eb…
05-21 15:16:30	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	454	0¢	$1	0x451428…
05-20 15:16:41	Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x3f02a6…
05-20 15:15:54	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xfad7e6…
05-19 18:34:16	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x2578cd…
05-16 22:01:01	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x385828…
05-16 21:49:07	UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)	Daniel Barez	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x912646…
05-16 21:47:46	Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x00557e…
05-16 19:00:16	Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x1e458e…
05-14 10:46:04	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	1	47¢	$0	0x5bb64f…
05-14 09:54:30	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x418699…
05-14 09:42:13	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x82de8f…
05-13 23:51:14	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0xc14363…
05-13 20:12:45	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xcee30e…
04-27 12:24:14	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xba3b2c…
04-27 12:24:08	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x24f44f…
04-27 12:19:22	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x8b77e7…
04-27 10:54:36	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe15ec7…
04-27 10:54:30	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xadc57c…
04-27 10:30:10	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x714889…
04-27 10:29:42	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xeebc59…
04-27 10:19:10	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x950656…
04-27 10:14:48	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1a2082…
04-27 10:14:30	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x18b504…
04-27 10:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x761ef8…
04-27 10:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x42ce3d…
04-27 10:04:12	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x5eac6f…
04-27 09:59:16	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xc5139c…
04-27 09:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf97a88…
04-27 09:54:16	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0f7f44…
04-27 09:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x3ec4e3…
04-27 09:49:52	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1a7359…
04-27 09:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x0ca215…
04-27 09:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x9ab13b…
04-27 09:44:10	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x214474…
04-27 09:39:50	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x996680…
04-27 09:39:06	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x4b50ca…
04-27 09:34:10	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x4a8f16…
04-27 09:29:44	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7e360d…
04-27 09:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe066e3…
04-27 09:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x419791…
04-27 09:24:18	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf255d9…
04-27 09:19:22	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xab79ca…
04-27 09:19:06	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9b4929…
04-27 09:14:42	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x238a09…
04-27 09:09:42	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x83ee2e…
04-27 09:09:12	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7788f6…
04-27 09:04:54	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9ffb26…
04-27 09:04:34	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf35ccc…
04-27 08:59:20	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x51c759…
04-27 08:59:12	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5ef895…
04-27 08:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb1970b…
04-27 08:54:12	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc3c06d…
04-27 08:49:18	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb451a5…
04-27 08:49:12	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x08f95f…
04-27 08:44:38	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb8be98…
04-27 08:39:16	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd06316…
04-27 08:34:54	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8f68ac…
04-27 08:34:14	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x648b22…
04-27 08:29:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb9386e…
04-27 08:29:10	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x4907c6…
04-27 08:24:50	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xc3c716…
04-27 08:24:10	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8a0f68…
04-27 08:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x46ab51…
04-27 08:19:26	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x435986…
04-27 08:09:52	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4c09d5…
04-27 08:05:00	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfadd50…
04-27 08:04:28	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe3a98e…
04-27 07:59:24	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa69609…
04-27 07:59:08	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa44e3f…
04-27 07:54:40	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x5ab2da…
04-27 07:54:24	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x51429a…
04-27 07:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa20e3c…
04-27 07:49:24	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x13e83d…
04-27 07:44:46	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe0ab35…
04-27 07:44:40	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x62b665…
04-27 07:39:20	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x8930a0…
04-27 07:39:16	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x0b9af7…
04-27 07:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb6412d…
04-27 07:34:16	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2a17c6…
04-27 07:24:20	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xc3a3b5…
04-27 07:24:14	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfe6d99…
04-27 07:19:10	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9752da…
04-27 07:14:56	XRP Up or Down - April 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x951b39…