Likely-Midnight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$61

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

87.5%

Resolved

1,019

Trades

1,527

lifetime

Volume

$10.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 10-31 02:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 87% +$22

Other

12% 28% -$124

Politics

7% 23% +$162

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes		+22	$2	5¢	$1	-$1	06-03 11:21
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		+45	$1	2¢	$1	$0	08-26 12:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$414	507	507	+0	Yes	+$194	04-07 22:47
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$110	286	286	+0	No	+$4	05-24 04:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 21:45 UTC	1	$80	84	0	+84	Down	-$80	04-11 21:49
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 3?	4	$61	41	41	+0	Yes	+$3	05-03 19:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$50	62	62	+0	Yes	+$40	06-14 22:36
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 09:20 UTC	2	$47	50	0	+50	Up	+$3	04-11 09:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$43	75	75	+0	No	+$13	05-24 04:38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1?	4	$41	31	26	+5	No	+$10	05-01 16:08
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 01:00 UTC	1	$36	38	0	+38	Up	+$2	04-12 01:02
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 22:55 UTC	1	$36	38	0	+38	Up	+$2	04-11 22:57
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 00:05 UTC	9	$36	38	0	+38	Up	+$2	04-12 00:07
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 23:10 UTC	2	$36	38	0	+38	Up	+$2	04-11 23:13
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 22:05 UTC	1	$36	38	0	+38	Up	+$2	04-11 22:07
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 23:10 UTC	1	$36	38	0	+38	Up	+$2	04-11 23:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 21:50 UTC	1	$36	38	0	+38	Up	+$2	04-11 21:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 02:25 UTC	1	$36	38	0	+38	Up	+$2	04-12 02:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 02:40 UTC	1	$36	38	0	+38	Up	+$2	04-12 02:42
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 01:00 UTC	1	$35	38	0	+38	Down	-$35	04-12 01:02
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 23:40 UTC	6	$35	37	0	+37	Up	+$2	04-10 23:44
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 23:20 UTC	1	$34	36	0	+36	Up	+$2	04-11 23:24
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 03:50 UTC	1	$34	36	0	+36	Up	+$2	04-12 03:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 23:20 UTC	1	$34	36	0	+36	Up	+$2	04-11 23:24
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 4?	7	$34	79	79	+0	No	-$18	05-04 14:05
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 03:45 UTC	1	$34	36	0	+36	Down	-$34	04-12 03:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 01:50 UTC	2	$34	36	0	+36	Up	+$2	04-12 01:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 02:10 UTC	2	$34	36	0	+36	Up	+$2	04-12 02:12
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 22:15 UTC	1	$33	36	0	+36	Up	+$3	04-11 22:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 00:20 UTC	1	$33	36	0	+36	Up	+$3	04-12 00:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 00:05 UTC	1	$32	36	0	+36	Up	+$4	04-12 00:07
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 4?	7	$32	49	49	+0	Yes	-$6	05-04 14:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 02:19:10	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x63cd70…
10-31 02:19:07	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $6.5B by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xf62a46…
10-30 04:21:25	Will Pete Hegseth be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x3e347c…
10-28 02:18:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x7b462c…
10-25 06:19:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x877a2d…
10-23 03:17:53	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x06644a…
10-22 03:19:20	Will AP call US Senate control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x63139f…
10-22 03:19:18	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x1eaffb…
10-20 07:21:34	Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0x6a4a95…
10-20 07:21:19	Will Warsh say "Pressure" or "Stagflation" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x9e4aa7…
10-20 05:18:45	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0xaf990a…
10-19 07:18:56	Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xc502d1…
10-19 01:18:14	Will AP call US House control by November 5, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0xa16ce2…
10-18 07:19:18	Will Pete Hegseth be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x3a706a…
10-18 07:19:15	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$2	0x72c2f9…
10-18 01:18:39	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0xd4d8cb…
10-17 09:18:41	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x02df2a…
10-17 07:39:57	will grand theft auto vi launch trailer get between 34 and 36 million views on day 2	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x0c0549…
10-16 11:20:58	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $6.5B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x4f41ec…
10-14 16:47:39	will ap call us house control by november 5	No	BUY	14	11¢	$2	0x0bcc16…
10-14 10:48:19	will ap call us house control by november 5	No	BUY	14	11¢	$2	0x334143…
10-11 20:19:07	Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0xdbab11…
10-04 08:33:40	Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0xdc6982…
09-30 08:34:08	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x7be6f8…
09-26 08:25:33	Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$2	0x4e1dd1…
09-26 08:25:29	Will "Heart of the Beast" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	52	3¢	$2	0x675c55…
09-22 08:24:51	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$2	0xdfa8f4…
09-21 08:18:44	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xbeaab5…
09-21 06:19:01	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x4fbeba…
09-21 04:18:43	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	SELL	9	50¢	$4	0xf5fc87…
09-20 22:18:58	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x3a0a64…
09-20 16:19:36	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x4ecce8…
09-19 10:20:04	Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe485af…
09-19 10:19:47	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x23896b…
09-19 10:19:41	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?	No	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x99e116…
09-18 08:18:37	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$2	0xe0b94b…
09-17 22:18:28	Will SPD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 2-5%?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xcd375c…
09-17 14:16:36	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4b6bd1…
09-12 20:49:40	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	770	0¢	$1	0x0b4176…
09-12 20:44:22	Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xfb8f17…
09-12 19:47:15	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xfc9e3e…
09-10 18:30:25	Will Manchester United FC vs. Sabah FK end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x580336…
09-10 18:30:15	Will Sabah FK win on 2026-09-10?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x37078b…
09-09 18:03:40	Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Viking FK end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xad3ea2…
09-09 18:03:06	Will Viking FK win on 2026-09-09?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x91a20c…
09-09 18:02:12	Will FC Barcelona vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x3ea1c5…
09-08 21:13:31	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xa6e4ad…
09-06 14:19:28	Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x07b792…
08-30 15:20:52	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x4c7964…
08-26 12:37:34	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x2e2939…
08-10 16:17:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0x803a18…
08-10 14:47:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x6c1956…
08-10 14:42:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3e3cd3…
07-23 14:08:36	wta badosa udvardy 2026 07 23	Panna Udvardy	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x4a2dd8…
07-23 14:04:27	atp etcheve buse 2026 07 24	Ignacio Buse	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xc406e2…
07-22 22:17:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x537490…
07-22 22:17:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5e13a2…
07-17 15:04:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 15:00 UTC	Up	SELL	19	13¢	$2	0x987ab8…
07-17 15:02:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xe05a1e…
07-17 15:02:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 15:00 UTC	Up	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xbd1eab…
07-17 15:00:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb8bed7…
07-17 14:53:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 14:50 UTC	Down	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x07ac36…
07-17 14:52:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 14:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1fa1ce…
06-19 22:45:40	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd9d543…
06-14 22:36:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	62	73¢	$45	0xf3f482…
06-06 20:00:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xbb23d2…
06-06 19:52:22	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe34550…
06-06 13:47:30	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x3f55cf…
06-06 13:47:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe777b7…
06-05 23:12:49	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3298d6…
06-05 23:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x90a7c1…
06-05 23:11:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xccdca1…
06-05 23:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xeed848…
06-05 23:10:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xfcea87…
06-04 22:41:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 22:40 UTC	Down	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0xc64165…
06-04 22:41:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x12942b…
06-03 11:21:44	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x568396…
06-02 20:06:29	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 2?	Yes	BUY	134	1¢	$1	0x40316e…
06-02 09:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x40eaca…
06-01 21:30:15	Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xa3c16b…
05-29 20:57:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x7907f8…
05-29 20:56:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xc4e4c4…
05-28 21:19:13	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x04b0a4…
05-28 20:10:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0x9a97b8…
05-28 20:10:23	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xfa0d05…
05-28 20:07:53	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0x44b0e6…
05-28 20:07:13	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x4500d8…
05-28 20:07:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0xacc9ba…
05-28 13:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xd6d56d…
05-27 22:36:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xad50f5…
05-27 22:36:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x925fdb…
05-27 22:36:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x570d75…
05-27 21:42:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x184e67…
05-27 12:41:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x35cb70…
05-27 12:40:57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x34a99b…
05-26 11:55:32	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0x5b1fed…
05-26 11:55:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xbfe0f0…
05-26 11:51:13	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x035c04…
05-26 11:51:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x0b5b5d…
05-25 20:34:11	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or higher on May 27?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xba25f6…