Dutiful-Observation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$108

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.65K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-21

last 10-24 07:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Politics

54% 88% +$34

Tech

32% 80% -$135

Other

14% 40% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	4	$289	163	155	+8	No	-$7	06-12 15:54
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	8	$285	172	172	+0	Yes	+$2	06-06 10:17
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	2	$237	124	124	+0	No	+$10	05-28 04:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	4	$224	114	114	+0	No	+$4	05-27 05:45
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$217	120	120	+0	No	+$3	05-26 14:42
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	4	$169	190	190	+0	Yes	-$168	07-02 16:40
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$162	56	108	-52	No	$0	05-24 07:51
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	1	$157	166	0	+166	No	+$8	06-18 10:14
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	3	$152	104	52	+52	No	+$2	04-11 11:06
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	1	$145	147	0	+147	No	+$2	06-06 19:58
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	1	$140	157	0	+157	No	+$17	06-17 15:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	1	$137	143	0	+143	No	+$5	05-31 07:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	1	$124	137	0	+137	No	+$14	05-28 07:03
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	1	$100	106	0	+106	No	+$6	06-26 08:39
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	3	$52	55	0	+55	Yes	+$3	05-07 16:00
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$51	51	0	+51	No	+$0	03-21 03:30
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$11	11	11	+0	No	-$9	09-26 01:59
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	10-24 07:57
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	2	$1	10	0	+10	No	-$1	07-31 08:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 07:57:50	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xeab271…
09-26 01:59:09	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0xbff7d2…
09-23 04:29:59	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x6afb58…
07-31 08:04:33	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xb289ac…
07-31 05:35:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xc1552d…
07-02 16:40:59	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	SELL	190	0¢	$0	0x471651…
06-30 16:51:37	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	170	89¢	$150	0x032edd…
06-30 16:49:59	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x235353…
06-30 16:47:32	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xa6905e…
06-26 08:39:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x491bbe…
06-18 10:14:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	BUY	166	95¢	$157	0x4418bb…
06-17 15:02:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	157	89¢	$140	0xe6d8e8…
06-12 15:54:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xe106b5…
06-12 15:53:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x07cff9…
06-12 13:29:34	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	155	91¢	$141	0x65e286…
06-10 09:53:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	155	95¢	$147	0x2592f1…
06-06 19:58:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	147	98¢	$145	0xf936e8…
06-06 10:17:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	84¢	$83	0x1c036b…
06-06 04:58:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	83¢	$60	0xd331c3…
06-01 20:57:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	82¢	$25	0x9228e2…
06-01 20:57:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	82¢	$27	0x1018a6…
06-01 20:52:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x0a4469…
06-01 20:52:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	82¢	$27	0xf08912…
06-01 20:39:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	82¢	$12	0x6c9eaf…
06-01 20:39:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x1a7b3a…
05-31 07:00:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	143	96¢	$137	0x07f9c3…
05-28 07:03:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	BUY	137	90¢	$124	0x426075…
05-28 04:11:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	SELL	124	100¢	$124	0x71d4bc…
05-27 07:40:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	124	92¢	$114	0xef29e9…
05-27 05:45:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x2306d5…
05-26 16:34:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	64	96¢	$62	0x4e2135…
05-26 16:15:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x39c19c…
05-26 16:14:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	44	97¢	$43	0x9c6f22…
05-26 14:42:10	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	120	92¢	$110	0xecb22f…
05-24 07:51:52	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	89¢	$107	0x87e627…
05-24 07:51:31	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	108	98¢	$107	0xcd973d…
05-15 01:54:54	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x515db9…
05-07 16:00:38	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$8	0x7dd523…
05-07 15:46:29	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x5db4f6…
05-07 15:27:21	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x5eb82a…
04-11 11:06:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0x326948…
04-02 11:27:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x8030f3…
04-01 11:06:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	53	97¢	$51	0xf05f3e…
03-21 03:30:01	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0xfcb514…