Optimistic-Men — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$50.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

68.8%

Resolved

127

Trades

3,464

lifetime

Volume

$299.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$86

Open exposure

$77

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-08 19:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

75% 79% +$1,859

Crypto

25% 50% +$48,956

Politics

0% 100% +$8

Sports

0% 71% -$2

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+37	$33	96¢	$35	+$2	10-08 19:54
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+34	$30	94¢	$32	+$2	10-08 19:57
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+11	$10	97¢	$10	+$0	08-25 10:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
atp alcaraz zverev 2026 01 30	96	$41.5K	44,450	41,400	+3,050	Alcaraz	+$4,731	01-30 08:50
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	873	$32.6K	880,118	4,746,522	-3,866,403	No	+$15,619	01-28 16:17
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	988	$31.2K	3,783,767	202,387	+3,581,380	Yes	-$24,323	01-28 13:27
will ethereum dip to 2200 january 26 1	51	$24.7K	28,274	28,274	+0	Yes	+$20,364	02-02 03:25
will jannik sinner win the 2026 australian open	52	$19.9K	175	40,288	-40,112	No	+$19,693	01-29 00:27
will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 australian open	54	$15.3K	27,055	19,615	+7,440	Yes	-$20,617	02-01 09:01
atp musetti djokovi 2026 01 28	13	$12.8K	10,000	10,000	-0	Djokovic	+$3,261	01-28 06:42
will novak djokovic win the 2026 australian open	43	$12.1K	61,357	49,977	+11,380	No	-$5,811	02-01 03:04
will ethereum dip to 2300 january 26 1	9	$11.7K	11,390	11,390	+0	Yes	+$11,014	01-31 18:53
wta sabalen rybakin 2026 01 31	43	$10.9K	16,633	5,653	+10,980	Rybakina	-$4,415	01-31 09:35
ethereum above 2400 on february 2	48	$7.7K	19,718	8,577	+11,141	No	+$4,294	02-02 05:52
atp djokovi sinner 2026 01 30	30	$6.6K	45,000	32,000	+13,000	Djokovic	+$9,707	01-30 12:46
will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	10	$6.5K	4,530	4,530	+0	Yes	+$1,675	02-04 16:45
will ethereum dip to 2400 january 26 1	3	$6.0K	5,767	5,767	+0	Yes	+$5,423	01-31 17:13
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	256	$4.9K	266,666	4,188,969	-3,922,303	No	+$4,399	01-28 13:30
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	271	$4.9K	614,164	4,289,717	-3,675,553	No	+$3,681	01-28 16:12
will alexander zverev win the 2026 australian open	67	$4.5K	3,500	39,674	-36,174	No	+$1,302	01-28 22:59
ethereum above 2500 on january 31	4	$4.4K	6,313	4,668	+1,645	No	+$4,755	01-31 16:48
atp spizzir wu 2026 01 22	10	$4.2K	6,120	1,120	+5,000	Spizzirri	-$3,256	01-22 07:17
will ethereum dip to 2600 in january 2026 489	35	$3.2K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	-$1,039	01-31 09:32
atp zverev tien 2026 01 27	3	$3.1K	9,000	0	+9,000	Zverev	-$3,060	01-27 02:52
will the price of ethereum be less than 2400 on february 2	4	$2.2K	4,305	4,305	+0	Yes	+$2,118	01-31 18:54
ethereum above 2400 on february 1	5	$2.1K	2,752	2,752	+0	No	+$2,024	01-31 18:43
atp shelton sinner 2026 01 28	10	$2.1K	20,000	10,000	+10,000	Sinner	-$880	01-28 09:45
will ethereum reach 2500 february 2 8	7	$1.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$1,387	02-05 08:49
will ethereum dip to 2500 january 26 1	2	$1.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$766	01-31 14:45
will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	14	$1.7K	2,003	2,003	+0	Yes	+$715	02-04 16:48
atp shapova cilic 2026 01 22	21	$1.4K	880	880	+0	Cilic	+$1	01-22 07:46
atp paul fokina 2026 01 23	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	Paul	-$10	01-22 10:01
atp tien borges 2026 01 23	4	$1.2K	955	955	+0	Tien	-$19	01-22 10:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 19:57:08	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0xa24d1c…
10-08 19:54:59	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	37	90¢	$33	0x600957…
10-08 19:53:54	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x143df2…
08-25 10:34:07	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xf8967a…
08-25 10:31:54	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x55b2be…
08-25 10:30:46	Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xea3e0b…
08-25 10:30:09	Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xd48427…
07-08 09:55:14	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	21	84¢	$18	0xa104bf…
07-08 09:54:49	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x704806…
07-08 09:52:46	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x6dfbe6…
07-08 09:52:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xbcae94…
06-29 16:23:43	Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x67ec8a…
06-29 16:23:19	Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x099799…
05-18 10:31:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xee6ea6…
05-18 10:30:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0x689cbe…
05-18 10:30:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x86912f…
05-18 10:29:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xbba270…
05-18 10:28:22	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x34bf42…
04-23 04:14:34	Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfa0592…
04-23 04:13:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xc5722f…
04-23 04:13:26	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xa8b3c9…
04-23 04:11:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x73b56e…
04-23 04:09:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd16e26…
03-19 12:26:47	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x0f4e39…
03-13 15:18:37	will clavicular be the top ranked chad by march 31	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x8d3c78…
03-13 15:17:31	will clavicular be irans next supreme leader by march 31st	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x63ec00…
03-13 15:16:23	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x184e5a…
03-13 15:16:13	us iran nuclear deal by march 31	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9b36b9…
03-13 15:15:59	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x873e7c…
03-13 15:15:53	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x88207e…
03-13 15:13:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xe1d487…
03-13 15:13:35	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x57e2d3…
03-13 15:13:23	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x543bd3…
03-13 15:11:27	will ethan hawke win best actor at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6ebbf9…
03-13 15:11:21	will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x9fdab5…
03-13 15:11:13	will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x06fcd8…
02-05 17:32:13	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x4b1d82…
02-05 08:49:15	will ethereum reach 2500 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	4,761	5¢	$245	0x328995…
02-05 01:24:15	will ethereum reach 2500 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	110	10¢	$11	0x8f72b2…
02-04 17:40:33	will ethereum reach 2500 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	129	10¢	$13	0x22dc7a…
02-04 16:48:23	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	0	58¢	$0	0x3e12ba…
02-04 16:45:25	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	3,141	90¢	$2,827	0xf7bbfc…
02-04 16:45:23	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	217	90¢	$195	0x92e7ad…
02-04 16:44:51	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	222	90¢	$200	0xa6d93b…
02-04 16:44:45	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	600	90¢	$543	0x90eb13…
02-04 16:44:45	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x70e784…
02-04 16:43:57	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	339	92¢	$312	0x19b7d5…
02-04 16:43:57	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x0ac343…
02-04 16:38:01	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	1,809	60¢	$1,085	0x628e89…
02-04 16:37:57	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0x9f6454…
02-04 16:37:19	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0xbdb1ca…
02-04 16:37:17	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0xa1f886…
02-04 16:22:53	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	33	60¢	$20	0x45fb09…
02-04 16:22:15	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0xe6904b…
02-03 22:34:32	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	630	42¢	$267	0x3f79f0…
02-03 22:22:30	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xa5fc01…
02-03 22:22:26	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x9e809f…
02-03 22:22:26	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x26e053…
02-03 22:22:26	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x238bd4…
02-03 22:22:26	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	540	25¢	$135	0x0af00b…
02-03 22:20:42	will ethereum reach 2500 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	40	34¢	$14	0xacabb4…
02-03 22:20:40	will ethereum reach 2500 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	137	34¢	$47	0xc1b842…
02-03 22:20:40	will ethereum reach 2500 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	500	34¢	$170	0x6e2f9b…
02-03 22:20:36	will ethereum reach 2500 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	4,323	33¢	$1,427	0x0220dd…
02-03 22:08:42	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xbcf037…
02-03 22:08:36	will ethereum dip to 2000 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	1,340	24¢	$321	0x92379a…
02-03 17:12:30	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	3,600	55¢	$1,980	0x89cd4e…
02-03 17:12:24	will ethereum dip to 2100 february 2 8	Yes	BUY	300	55¢	$165	0xb83162…
02-03 12:13:46	ethereum above 2500 on february 3	Yes	BUY	2,503	1¢	$25	0xe41d69…
02-02 19:07:08	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	166	0¢	$0	0x26282c…
02-02 18:54:52	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0x6f0238…
02-02 18:51:26	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x014105…
02-02 18:49:22	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0xddca17…
02-02 18:45:48	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	37	0¢	$0	0xad78eb…
02-02 18:42:06	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	27	0¢	$0	0xf737a8…
02-02 18:37:26	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x4ddf35…
02-02 18:34:16	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	33	0¢	$0	0x5e4f51…
02-02 18:33:20	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x7f6e49…
02-02 18:31:06	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0x4d8d52…
02-02 18:13:58	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	54	0¢	$0	0x0e6513…
02-02 18:11:08	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	265	0¢	$0	0x23226a…
02-02 18:04:32	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xdab250…
02-02 17:57:06	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	123	0¢	$0	0x809819…
02-02 17:55:00	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	43	0¢	$0	0x3bd27e…
02-02 17:39:46	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x36256c…
02-02 17:14:40	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x09b1ca…
02-02 17:13:18	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	150	0¢	$0	0x8ee6aa…
02-02 17:02:12	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x827ec2…
02-02 16:45:24	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$10	0xd7a1e8…
02-02 16:42:46	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa8d039…
02-02 16:42:42	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x79ae13…
02-02 16:39:28	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x580c4f…
02-02 16:36:12	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0xa348ad…
02-02 16:34:24	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x993bc2…
02-02 16:30:16	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	323	0¢	$0	0x3aac28…
02-02 16:27:46	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	70	0¢	$0	0xd8d76e…
02-02 16:26:04	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	4,548	0¢	$6	0x7a7791…
02-02 15:49:30	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	181	2¢	$3	0xbf4a00…
02-02 15:42:32	ethereum above 2500 on february 2	Yes	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0x5cb8c1…
02-02 05:52:26	ethereum above 2400 on february 2	Yes	BUY	403	6¢	$25	0x4428ca…