Murky-Premise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$143

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

89.8%

Resolved

110

Trades

254

lifetime

Volume

$3.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-04

last 06-23 03:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 94% $-143

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No		-10	$-9	94¢	$-9	$-0	06-23 03:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	1	$170	183	0	+183	Up	$-170	05-06 05:03
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	1	$98	112	0	+112	Down	+$14	05-06 04:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	1	$98	102	0	+102	Down	+$4	05-06 04:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	1	$98	99	0	+99	Up	+$1	05-06 04:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	1	$85	94	0	+94	Down	+$9	05-06 04:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	1	$85	89	0	+89	Down	+$4	05-06 04:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	1	$78	84	0	+84	Down	+$6	05-06 04:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	1	$78	79	0	+79	Up	+$1	05-06 04:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	1	$74	75	0	+75	Up	+$1	05-06 03:24
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	7	$73	75	0	+75	open	—	05-09 05:03
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	7	$73	74	0	+74	Down	+$1	05-09 04:54
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	6	$66	66	66	+0	Down	$-64	05-09 05:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	1	$65	68	0	+68	Down	+$3	05-06 04:03
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	5	$65	68	0	+68	Up	+$3	05-09 04:44
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	5	$65	66	0	+66	Down	+$1	05-09 04:29
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	5	$65	67	0	+67	open	—	05-09 04:48
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	5	$65	66	0	+66	Down	+$1	05-09 04:33
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	5	$65	66	0	+66	open	—	05-09 05:18
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	6	$60	62	0	+62	Up	+$2	05-09 04:03
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	6	$60	64	0	+64	Down	+$4	05-09 04:14
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	5	$56	58	0	+58	Up	+$2	05-09 03:54
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	5	$56	58	0	+58	Down	+$2	05-09 04:59
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	4	$52	56	0	+56	Down	+$4	05-09 03:42
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	4	$52	53	0	+53	open	—	05-09 05:23
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	6	$51	52	0	+52	Down	+$1	05-09 03:33
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	2	$50	51	0	+51	Down	+$1	05-06 04:14
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	5	$47	48	0	+48	Up	+$1	05-09 03:29
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	4	$43	44	0	+44	Up	+$1	05-09 03:04
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	4	$43	45	0	+45	Down	+$2	05-09 03:14
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	4	$43	44	0	+44	Down	+$1	05-09 03:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-23 03:08:28	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x78b7b9…
05-18 01:03:56	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x547ca3…
05-18 00:54:57	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xae97d9…
05-18 00:49:58	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x9d3cb5…
05-18 00:44:41	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x4c8af1…
05-18 00:38:49	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x4b3759…
05-18 00:34:21	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x51e902…
05-18 00:34:20	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xa1333c…
05-18 00:21:47	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xb10e88…
05-18 00:08:50	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x268575…
05-18 00:08:24	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x89e340…
05-18 00:02:13	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xb9efd9…
05-13 05:54:35	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xf63dcd…
05-13 05:49:46	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0xd04d45…
05-13 05:39:09	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x9a9f53…
05-13 05:39:04	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x47a3c8…
05-13 05:34:52	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x9923ee…
05-13 05:29:37	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0xe41fe0…
05-13 05:19:31	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xc77d65…
05-13 05:09:57	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x000f71…
05-13 05:09:47	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0xef278b…
05-13 05:09:33	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0xbe156e…
05-13 05:03:38	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x334884…
05-13 05:02:29	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x925191…
05-13 04:59:50	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x977300…
05-13 04:54:25	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xb19347…
05-13 04:54:21	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x67ff52…
05-12 03:46:59	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x58505a…
05-12 03:44:31	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xe5f3ca…
05-12 03:44:06	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x0dd4de…
05-12 03:39:45	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xb52093…
05-12 03:23:32	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x0133c6…
05-12 03:13:20	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x59297f…
05-12 03:13:08	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xe9fb4a…
05-12 03:08:08	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x49610e…
05-12 03:04:30	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x65ab01…
05-12 03:04:21	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xc36abf…
05-12 03:04:17	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0xc21e97…
05-12 02:59:48	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x94b642…
05-12 02:59:30	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x557a22…
05-12 02:52:29	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xc3a1a3…
05-12 02:38:39	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd946f0…
05-12 02:29:40	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xf834bf…
05-12 02:23:27	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xbd6380…
05-12 02:14:53	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x717130…
05-12 02:14:37	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x408c81…
05-09 05:29:45	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	66	1¢	$1	0x6482d5…
05-09 05:29:19	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x3dd96d…
05-09 05:29:14	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xda670b…
05-09 05:29:14	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xacc5bf…
05-09 05:29:10	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xcb2bd8…
05-09 05:29:10	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x551ff7…
05-09 05:23:31	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x633d04…
05-09 05:22:47	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x402d01…
05-09 05:22:43	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x254a08…
05-09 05:22:22	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0xd8d381…
05-09 05:18:42	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xf6e39f…
05-09 05:18:38	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x3892f8…
05-09 05:18:35	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xbfb9b4…
05-09 05:18:33	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xf75a45…
05-09 05:18:28	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x81cdce…
05-09 05:09:50	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	27	49¢	$13	0xb9f89d…
05-09 05:03:20	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x4a0136…
05-09 05:03:16	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xfc0b04…
05-09 05:03:02	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd84649…
05-09 05:02:43	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x9a1d09…
05-09 05:02:11	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x19a34e…
05-09 05:01:40	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x5c58e1…
05-09 05:01:21	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x95a997…
05-09 04:59:13	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0xad0e58…
05-09 04:59:02	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xdfb0a2…
05-09 04:58:50	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xc1dc8c…
05-09 04:58:47	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x01bf87…
05-09 04:58:43	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xe7947c…
05-09 04:54:36	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x110054…
05-09 04:54:33	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xe73cca…
05-09 04:54:24	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xb55283…
05-09 04:54:21	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x7fc542…
05-09 04:54:17	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x3983f2…
05-09 04:54:15	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x977992…
05-09 04:54:14	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xa45ea9…
05-09 04:48:11	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xf3fde9…
05-09 04:48:08	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x029b06…
05-09 04:48:01	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x3dcd9b…
05-09 04:47:35	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x8a3a9b…
05-09 04:47:01	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x8d055e…
05-09 04:44:36	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xbef1d1…
05-09 04:44:29	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x632ffa…
05-09 04:44:26	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x066ed6…
05-09 04:43:05	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x3071e8…
05-09 04:42:56	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xe2ca7d…
05-09 04:38:37	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x597a1e…
05-09 04:37:55	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xc76d27…
05-09 04:33:45	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x9500bb…
05-09 04:33:14	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x9bc4b3…
05-09 04:33:03	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x2f17f4…
05-09 04:32:37	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x7adb91…
05-09 04:32:32	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x2d95b0…
05-09 04:29:38	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x2262ab…
05-09 04:29:33	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xc6b0bf…