That-Fir — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$76

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.2%

Resolved

388

Trades

2,637

lifetime

Volume

$24.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 08-10 06:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

75% 75% $-75

Politics

16% — —

Sports

6% 79% $-0

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	41	$2.8K	2,800	2,800	+0	open	—	08-10 06:18
spx up or down on july 22 2026	22	$800	767	767	+0	open	—	07-22 19:27
spx opens up or down on july 22 2026	11	$669	500	400	+100	open	—	07-22 11:55
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	14	$581	500	500	+0	open	—	07-05 01:21
us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	28	$495	570	570	+0	open	—	07-17 03:50
spx up or down on july 8 2026	9	$408	581	581	+0	open	—	07-08 19:45
spy closes above 735 on july 9 2026	7	$389	300	300	+0	open	—	07-09 15:53
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	5	$373	400	400	+0	open	—	08-09 17:08
tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 22 2026 0pt5	12	$301	266	138	+128	open	—	07-22 20:36
iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	12	$253	300	250	+50	open	—	07-22 14:14
wti up or down on july 16 2026	2	$205	154	154	+0	open	—	07-16 14:55
gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193 839	7	$195	204	204	+0	open	—	07-07 19:42
wti closes above 79 on july 9 2026	4	$195	200	200	+0	open	—	07-09 15:52
spx up or down on july 21 2026	5	$191	200	100	+100	open	—	07-21 14:21
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	7	$188	150	150	+0	open	—	07-07 18:24
la28 olympics run as scheduled 20260721200040093	13	$162	100	80	+20	open	—	07-25 21:32
spy up or down on july 22 2026	5	$147	225	225	+0	open	—	07-22 15:33
iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	19	$139	200	180	+20	open	—	07-12 16:29
will openai launch a new consumer hardware product by october 31 2026	5	$132	170	20	+150	open	—	08-08 01:33
will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt4t by june 30 98	7	$114	60	60	+0	open	—	06-25 23:23
iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	5	$100	150	100	+50	open	—	07-22 01:18
will trump say grocery or dairy during michigan remarks 20260724162420361	4	$100	100	100	+0	open	—	07-27 16:48
Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	4	$99	100	100	+0	open	—	07-05 13:56
will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	3	$98	50	50	+0	open	—	06-26 16:05
will anthropic ipo by september 15 2026 415	10	$98	100	100	+0	open	—	07-25 12:02
will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by september 30 20260720194516250	2	$97	50	50	+0	open	—	07-23 13:13
nyc air quality index below 100 by july 18 20260717052446991	9	$96	118	118	+0	open	—	07-18 15:16
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?	11	$89	86	86	+0	open	—	08-08 17:12
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	1	$88	100	0	+100	open	—	08-08 03:25
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	3	$87	51	49	+2	open	—	07-04 05:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 06:18:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x9e040f…
08-10 06:00:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x0fb012…
08-10 06:00:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x51cd56…
08-10 06:00:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x0c2f05…
08-10 06:00:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x2fdb85…
08-10 06:00:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$1	0x963ae7…
08-10 06:00:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xa7db54…
08-10 05:46:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	83	95¢	$79	0x9897c9…
08-10 05:34:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	54	95¢	$52	0xd0a16f…
08-10 05:25:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	44	95¢	$42	0xdf742d…
08-10 05:25:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x2ea3c6…
08-10 01:33:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x12a270…
08-10 00:45:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x69930f…
08-10 00:42:52	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xbd4b1d…
08-09 23:39:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x367edd…
08-09 23:39:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x0d1349…
08-09 23:26:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	33	95¢	$32	0x0092e6…
08-09 22:30:31	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x7999f5…
08-09 22:29:46	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 21 20260808192512605	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xb918a6…
08-09 22:02:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	167	95¢	$158	0x6fb754…
08-09 21:51:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x04bf94…
08-09 21:22:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0x81c5b4…
08-09 21:21:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x69e728…
08-09 21:11:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	180	95¢	$171	0xfd431b…
08-09 21:10:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x68bd3e…
08-09 21:10:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xc2009c…
08-09 20:45:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x60c8f5…
08-09 20:45:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xa9eee4…
08-09 20:44:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0xee74a6…
08-09 20:43:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x52c421…
08-09 17:08:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$3	0x9aab8d…
08-09 15:37:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x36fdda…
08-09 12:38:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0xc09c78…
08-09 07:45:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	200	8¢	$16	0xbcafa4…
08-09 06:20:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xf7c4c7…
08-08 23:56:28	will sam rockwell be nominated for best actor at the 99th academy awards	Yes	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x611dc4…
08-08 22:52:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x658668…
08-08 22:27:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	113	90¢	$101	0xf260f0…
08-08 22:07:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	25	90¢	$22	0x38f78b…
08-08 22:06:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	62	90¢	$56	0x139e0b…
08-08 21:58:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x7cfe7d…
08-08 19:47:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x31d2fa…
08-08 19:47:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xc123fa…
08-08 19:39:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0x2a5ad4…
08-08 19:39:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x16586c…
08-08 17:36:52	will sam rockwell be nominated for best actor at the 99th academy awards	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xac66ca…
08-08 17:19:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0x058a65…
08-08 17:19:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0x808d28…
08-08 17:18:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	SELL	199	90¢	$179	0x4d85ca…
08-08 17:15:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x7b29f2…
08-08 17:15:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x3612d2…
08-08 17:12:52	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xa0334e…
08-08 03:25:18	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x3af48c…
08-08 01:33:15	will openai launch a new consumer hardware product by october 31 2026	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xd689fc…
08-08 01:12:46	will rodrygo finish in the top 3 of the 2026 ballon dor	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xfcd7ee…
08-08 00:58:04	will kai or speed be eliminated by falling 20260807142948637	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x6797de…
08-08 00:22:25	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xddb8b9…
08-07 13:30:13	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x70169c…
08-07 01:12:01	will openai launch a new consumer hardware product by october 31 2026	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x28dbd6…
08-06 18:42:47	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x136886…
08-05 20:22:35	will openai launch a new consumer hardware product by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xf5091b…
08-05 19:56:24	will trump say bitcoin crypto or cryptocurrency during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421460	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x319244…
08-05 19:48:54	will trump say bitcoin crypto or cryptocurrency during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421460	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x68af34…
08-04 03:07:11	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xc67342…
08-03 06:06:32	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x2e1779…
08-01 05:16:02	will byron buxton be traded by the 2026 mlb trade deadline 20260728182533466	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x07ab16…
08-01 05:15:03	will byron buxton be traded by the 2026 mlb trade deadline 20260728182533466	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x8ac0c2…
07-28 16:26:59	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x4b4fef…
07-28 16:05:34	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x2d4823…
07-27 17:46:34	will trump say save america during michigan remarks 20260724162420366	No	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0x71a519…
07-27 17:22:37	will trump say save america during michigan remarks 20260724162420366	No	SELL	38	15¢	$6	0x082694…
07-27 17:13:06	will trump say motor city during michigan remarks 20260724162420357	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x9850c1…
07-27 17:12:24	will trump say joe or biden 12 times during michigan remarks 20260724162420352	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x86abae…
07-27 17:03:00	will trump say save america during michigan remarks 20260724162420366	No	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x40b6fe…
07-27 17:02:39	will trump say motor city during michigan remarks 20260724162420357	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x7bb7d2…
07-27 16:48:12	will trump say grocery or dairy during michigan remarks 20260724162420361	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0x180a42…
07-27 16:44:55	will trump say usmca or nafta during michigan remarks 20260725221627587	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x7fe8d4…
07-27 16:33:13	will trump say grocery or dairy during michigan remarks 20260724162420361	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x4df4c8…
07-27 16:12:39	will trump say usmca or nafta during michigan remarks 20260725221627587	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xeb5bc5…
07-27 13:16:22	will trump say oil or gas 10 times during michigan remarks 20260724162420353	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x0db08e…
07-27 13:15:04	will trump say toyota during michigan remarks 20260724162420362	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x6ea09c…
07-27 01:43:27	will trump say transgender during michigan remarks 20260724162420367	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x2147c4…
07-27 00:01:12	will trump say transgender during michigan remarks 20260724162420367	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x5d54b7…
07-26 23:34:28	will trump say supreme court during michigan remarks 20260724162420375	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x127717…
07-26 23:29:03	will trump say grocery or dairy during michigan remarks 20260724162420361	Yes	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0xe4a258…
07-26 21:44:51	will trump say cuba or cuban this week 20260719005322441	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x8a5906…
07-26 21:20:01	will trump say grocery or dairy during michigan remarks 20260724162420361	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xf3d216…
07-26 20:55:25	will trump say cuba or cuban this week 20260719005322441	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xbcc9b0…
07-26 20:50:54	will trump say oil or gas 10 times during michigan remarks 20260724162420353	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x69a372…
07-26 20:44:42	will trump say toyota during michigan remarks 20260724162420362	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x26b0cf…
07-26 20:02:31	will anyone say horse during rick and morty e10 s9 20260721174118163	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xd88943…
07-26 19:50:04	will trump say supreme court during michigan remarks 20260724162420375	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xa5a0a7…
07-26 17:00:49	will anyone say horse during rick and morty e10 s9 20260721174118163	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x7192a2…
07-26 16:53:19	will anyone say horse during rick and morty e10 s9 20260721174118163	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x2f40ba…
07-26 09:45:49	will mrbeast say minecraft during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152723133	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x111581…
07-26 08:56:21	will mrbeast say minecraft during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152723133	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x3ce6c4…
07-25 21:32:06	la28 olympics run as scheduled 20260721200040093	Yes	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x407e98…
07-25 17:10:16	la28 olympics run as scheduled 20260721200040093	Yes	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0xe03b9f…
07-25 16:23:01	will mrbeast say subscriber during his next youtube video 20260702154826883	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x95be54…
07-25 16:13:00	will mrbeast say subscriber during his next youtube video 20260702154826883	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x1679d5…