Familiar-Barometer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$89

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.0%

Resolved

499

Trades

989

lifetime

Volume

$6.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-23

last 08-24 13:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 68% -$89

Other

0% 67% +$0

Tech

0% 0% $0

Sports

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 03:50 UTC	4	$153	98	97	+1	Up	-$24	04-24 03:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 21:35 UTC	2	$137	72	72	+0	Up	+$1	04-15 21:38
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 03:55 UTC	5	$127	92	90	+2	Up	+$1	04-24 04:00
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 03:35 UTC	2	$108	60	59	+1	Up	+$6	04-24 03:38
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 03:30 UTC	2	$100	52	52	+0	Down	+$2	04-24 03:34
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 03:25 UTC	2	$91	55	54	+1	Up	+$8	04-24 03:26
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	4	$86	48	48	+0	Down	+$6	05-28 13:44
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 03:20 UTC	2	$84	42	42	+0	Down	+$0	04-24 03:23
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 03:45 UTC	2	$83	44	44	+0	Up	+$3	04-24 03:48
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	2	$82	44	44	+0	Down	+$2	05-29 07:44
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 21:45 UTC	2	$77	39	39	+0	Up	+$0	04-15 21:49
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 04:00 UTC	2	$76	44	43	+1	Down	+$11	04-24 04:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	4	$66	52	48	+3	Down	-$14	05-29 22:35
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 21:20 UTC	2	$66	35	34	+0	Up	+$3	04-22 21:25
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 21:10 UTC	2	$64	34	33	+0	Up	+$3	04-22 21:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 22:15 UTC	2	$54	27	27	+0	Down	+$0	04-16 22:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$47	27	27	+0	Down	+$7	05-28 15:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 22:00 UTC	2	$44	22	22	+0	Up	$0	04-16 22:02
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 04:10 UTC	1	$43	47	0	+47	Down	-$43	04-24 04:13
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	6	$33	22	22	+0	Up	-$3	06-01 19:20
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	6	$32	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	05-29 20:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	4	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	05-28 13:24
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 00:05 UTC	2	$30	21	20	+1	Up	+$11	04-11 00:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	6	$30	16	16	+0	Up	+$0	05-29 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 22:50 UTC	2	$29	20	20	+1	Up	+$10	04-13 22:53
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 00:40 UTC	2	$29	22	21	+1	Down	+$10	04-11 00:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	2	$28	19	19	+0	Down	+$8	05-29 18:45
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 15:10 UTC	2	$28	19	18	+1	Up	+$9	04-11 15:15
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 01:30 UTC	2	$27	18	18	+1	Up	+$8	04-13 01:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	2	$27	18	18	+0	Up	+$7	05-30 07:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-24 13:26:12	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 13:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9f70c4…
08-24 13:24:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 13:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6ef327…
08-24 13:23:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 13:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xaa23ab…
07-21 15:12:51	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xc03a7b…
07-21 15:09:10	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 15:05 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe3841a…
07-21 15:06:21	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 15:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe77366…
06-26 14:26:44	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 14:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xa7157f…
06-26 14:19:31	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 14:15 UTC	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa970ff…
06-26 14:19:10	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	71¢	$2	0x8366a5…
06-26 14:16:24	Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xef865b…
06-04 19:40:03	Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x00fb76…
06-04 19:39:24	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 19:35 UTC	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x099417…
06-04 19:36:10	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 19:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x11aeec…
06-04 19:29:27	Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6d0512…
06-04 19:28:24	Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x233d7c…
06-04 11:12:58	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xd123c2…
06-04 11:09:52	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 11:05 UTC	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x5a43cb…
06-04 11:07:18	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x2f3527…
06-04 09:08:57	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 09:05 UTC	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8e0756…
06-04 09:08:37	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1e248a…
06-04 09:03:10	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 09:00 UTC	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9d9a7f…
06-04 09:02:51	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6459bf…
06-04 08:59:46	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 08:55 UTC	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x864816…
06-04 08:57:19	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 08:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xfb7191…
06-04 07:33:34	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 07:30 UTC	Up	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x5b4179…
06-04 07:32:13	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x8262f5…
06-04 07:25:01	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 07:20 UTC	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x0e2554…
06-04 07:22:51	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x3c375d…
06-04 07:18:01	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 07:15 UTC	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x9b1883…
06-04 07:17:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xa6b434…
06-02 13:12:17	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-02 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xf189e5…
06-02 13:09:01	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x67cd35…
06-02 13:05:03	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xc8ba2a…
06-02 13:03:41	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xfa89e9…
06-02 12:59:32	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x851ac4…
06-02 12:57:45	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x604f99…
06-02 12:54:31	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xcea57b…
06-02 12:52:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x27e357…
06-02 12:49:23	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x07618e…
06-02 12:48:38	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x08102c…
06-02 12:40:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xcead50…
06-02 12:39:12	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb9a82f…
06-02 12:35:06	Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xa06b98…
06-02 12:34:32	Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x398f09…
06-02 12:30:06	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x60c8ff…
06-02 12:28:30	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xbec174…
06-02 12:18:53	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x97b14f…
06-02 12:18:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x63140c…
06-02 12:17:51	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x9f1aa0…
06-02 12:17:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x0984dd…
06-02 12:13:57	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x753b79…
06-02 12:12:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xf3fa58…
06-02 12:09:48	Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x932f03…
06-02 12:09:12	Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xdda2a1…
06-02 12:05:07	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xd77b34…
06-02 12:02:15	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x8e2915…
06-02 11:58:14	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x647f82…
06-02 11:57:07	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x628fe0…
06-02 11:54:52	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x418668…
06-02 11:54:42	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7747c3…
06-02 08:02:30	Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x517007…
06-02 07:59:33	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x08d696…
06-02 07:57:22	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x21997b…
06-02 07:54:10	XRP Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdf2cc1…
06-02 07:53:54	XRP Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x29915b…
06-02 07:53:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xc2f19c…
06-01 20:08:21	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xa2d406…
06-01 20:00:01	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xe39d7c…
06-01 19:57:50	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x6e3c1f…
06-01 19:54:44	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x507a1a…
06-01 19:52:38	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x325a59…
06-01 19:49:34	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9e2874…
06-01 19:48:17	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7546a2…
06-01 19:45:00	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x67c00d…
06-01 19:44:46	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7f1469…
06-01 19:39:08	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x1e401e…
06-01 19:37:18	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x2c4169…
06-01 19:34:05	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x8ec639…
06-01 19:33:07	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x53afe2…
06-01 19:32:43	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0xc18b19…
06-01 19:32:04	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xff0310…
06-01 19:24:56	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xd823fc…
06-01 19:22:16	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x131405…
06-01 19:20:00	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x39d430…
06-01 19:19:51	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xd5789d…
06-01 19:19:32	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0x7d3f86…
06-01 19:18:03	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0xe6d4e1…
06-01 19:17:38	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0x494100…
06-01 19:17:22	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xc87d2d…
06-01 19:12:48	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xae6b1b…
06-01 19:09:54	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x75bee6…
06-01 19:07:29	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x26d7bc…
06-01 19:04:13	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x1830c6…
06-01 19:02:11	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xe4503e…
06-01 18:54:04	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	4	97¢	$3	0x6cef92…
06-01 18:50:57	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x869444…
06-01 18:48:46	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x60a4bb…
06-01 18:48:33	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0x64bf3f…
06-01 18:47:16	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xcfae20…
06-01 18:44:51	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x670148…