Astonishing-Bakery — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

50.0%

Resolved

Trades

271

lifetime

Volume

$8.76K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$13

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-02 00:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

55% — —

Politics

31% — —

Sports

12% 60% +$1

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No		+40	$10	24¢	$10	$-0	06-09 18:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		-32	$-5	10¢	$-3	+$2	06-02 00:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	14	$2.1K	2,321	2,321	+0	open	—	02-01 13:54
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$834	549	549	+0	open	—	03-28 09:07
jesus christ return before 2027 odds 5 monday night 12 1 am	12	$486	776	659	+117	open	—	02-16 06:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	9	$411	475	314	+161	open	—	05-23 22:14
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$250	153	153	+0	open	—	05-26 05:40
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	3	$246	132	132	+0	open	—	03-13 18:10
us strikes iraq by march 7	18	$245	540	540	+0	open	—	03-08 07:51
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	4	$222	462	462	+0	open	—	03-08 21:19
will the us seize an iranian oil tanker by feb 28	4	$220	341	0	+341	open	—	02-15 12:06
iran strike on israel by february 28	3	$210	306	306	+0	open	—	02-28 08:27
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	1	$200	297	0	+297	open	—	02-09 14:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$181	130	130	+0	open	—	04-16 19:47
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	3	$157	172	172	+0	open	—	02-27 14:30
rusixnat eng ire 2026 02 21 eng	8	$143	212	0	+212	open	—	02-15 08:22
will bill or hillary clinton be held in contempt of congress by feb 28	3	$127	364	0	+364	open	—	02-01 19:46
nothing ever happens israel edition	5	$115	162	162	+0	open	—	02-28 03:30
nba bos cha 2026 03 29	2	$110	143	0	+143	open	—	03-29 23:13
will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	3	$105	95	95	+0	open	—	03-07 08:09
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	2	$101	111	111	+0	open	—	03-08 21:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$100	62	62	+0	open	—	02-23 19:32
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$100	143	0	+143	open	—	02-13 20:25
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	1	$100	143	0	+143	open	—	01-27 21:46
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$93	125	125	+0	open	—	04-07 19:47
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$91	1,452	1,452	+0	open	—	04-14 18:17
rusixnat eng ire 2026 02 21 ire	5	$85	100	100	+0	open	—	02-16 00:37
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	2	$80	152	152	+0	open	—	02-26 07:57
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	3	$70	121	0	+121	open	—	03-02 10:04
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	3	$60	87	0	+87	open	—	03-09 15:12
will the oklahoma city thunder finish with the best record in the nba	7	$59	179	179	+0	open	—	04-04 22:05
will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota	1	$50	60	0	+60	open	—	01-09 22:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 18:56:48	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x509254…
06-02 00:18:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	44	23¢	$10	0x3c1d96…
05-29 15:56:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x5f32b1…
05-26 05:40:55	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	153	98¢	$150	0xc174e2…
05-25 08:36:27	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xbb3d8e…
05-23 22:14:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0xd4f04f…
05-23 22:03:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xa2de5c…
05-23 21:51:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x1510b8…
05-23 21:49:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	61	81¢	$50	0x1aeeba…
05-20 15:51:37	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xeb54ba…
05-19 03:22:12	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	SELL	31	54¢	$17	0xae926d…
05-17 13:24:54	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xc3d422…
05-17 13:24:06	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	153	65¢	$100	0x215e3d…
05-16 19:56:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	129	3¢	$4	0x9618bc…
05-12 03:52:35	Spread: Thunder (-10.5)	Thunder	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x540669…
05-12 03:49:21	Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	Thunder	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0x4562ed…
05-10 12:57:34	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x766019…
05-08 19:52:54	Spread: Thunder (-8.5)	Thunder	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x0ec7cb…
05-08 19:45:12	Spread: Thunder (-8.5)	Thunder	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xda45b5…
05-07 13:08:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x060d60…
05-04 19:42:10	Spread: Thunder (-16.5)	Thunder	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xb3fe1b…
04-18 22:56:56	nba hou lal 2026 04 18	Rockets	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x63d7b9…
04-16 19:47:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	100	74¢	$74	0x095dfd…
04-16 19:36:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x60ee10…
04-16 06:14:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xaaf221…
04-15 10:36:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	185	56¢	$104	0x0ff628…
04-14 18:17:14	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0x97a26e…
04-14 14:57:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x2e575d…
04-10 18:56:59	nba phx lal 2026 04 10	Suns	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xd95b20…
04-09 21:48:37	nba bos nyk 2026 04 09	Celtics	SELL	42	35¢	$15	0x3527af…
04-09 15:39:57	nba bos nyk 2026 04 09	Celtics	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x94b549…
04-08 20:56:43	nba por sas 2026 04 08	Spurs	SELL	16	59¢	$10	0xfb66df…
04-08 07:35:41	nba okc lac 2026 04 08	Thunder	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x9474a9…
04-08 07:35:29	nba por sas 2026 04 08	Spurs	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x473adf…
04-08 00:36:29	nba cha bos 2026 04 07	Celtics	SELL	15	44¢	$6	0xe56d25…
04-08 00:25:43	nba okc lal 2026 04 07 spread away 16pt5	Thunder	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x98b1f2…
04-07 23:26:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	30	34¢	$10	0xeef4ab…
04-07 22:29:55	nba okc lal 2026 04 07 spread away 16pt5	Thunder	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0xd0d21c…
04-07 22:27:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x1f207b…
04-07 19:47:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	125	40¢	$50	0xad5600…
04-07 12:01:17	nba cha bos 2026 04 07	Celtics	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x102f49…
04-07 12:00:19	nba bos nyk 2026 04 09	Celtics	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xf96e89…
04-04 22:05:57	will the oklahoma city thunder finish with the best record in the nba	No	SELL	29	8¢	$2	0x642c62…
04-04 21:15:05	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	113	1¢	$1	0xd0051f…
04-04 13:13:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	111	1¢	$1	0x08a902…
03-31 21:02:13	nba cle lal 2026 03 31	Lakers	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x0b5d3e…
03-31 08:36:25	nba bos mia 2026 04 01	Celtics	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x1aec09…
03-30 13:27:32	nba bos atl 2026 03 30	Celtics	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x2e3c70…
03-30 11:13:16	nba bos atl 2026 03 30	Celtics	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x93aa0a…
03-29 23:13:34	nba bos cha 2026 03 29	Celtics	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x42e304…
03-28 09:07:59	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	119	93¢	$111	0x3895d9…
03-27 19:43:09	nba bos cha 2026 03 29	Celtics	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x173167…
03-26 23:21:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xca6a28…
03-26 04:25:41	will the oklahoma city thunder finish with the best record in the nba	No	SELL	46	17¢	$8	0xd419bd…
03-26 04:17:21	will the oklahoma city thunder finish with the best record in the nba	No	SELL	35	17¢	$6	0x284760…
03-26 04:16:11	will the oklahoma city thunder finish with the best record in the nba	No	SELL	16	17¢	$3	0xe13d89…
03-26 01:25:07	will the oklahoma city thunder finish with the best record in the nba	No	SELL	53	17¢	$9	0xccd9b9…
03-25 14:04:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x85063a…
03-25 13:53:27	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	155	84¢	$130	0x8e07b9…
03-24 21:57:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xa247e1…
03-24 21:57:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x28fa81…
03-24 21:57:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x01d4f2…
03-24 21:56:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x16e2c6…
03-24 21:51:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xa7d989…
03-22 19:11:43	will russia capture rodynske by march 31	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xe35f68…
03-22 01:48:35	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x370cf5…
03-22 01:33:59	nba lal orl 2026 03 21	Lakers	SELL	16	12¢	$2	0x58ca58…
03-21 19:53:05	nba cle nop 2026 03 21	Cavaliers	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x3a7cb0…
03-21 19:50:13	nba lal orl 2026 03 21	Lakers	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x871ed1…
03-21 14:49:07	will russia capture rodynske by march 31	No	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x42d25a…
03-21 14:49:05	Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xdfc608…
03-20 15:43:47	nba por min 2026 03 20	Timberwolves	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xce64ad…
03-19 22:04:37	nba lal mia 2026 03 19	Lakers	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x12a647…
03-17 21:05:09	nba lal hou 2026 03 18	Lakers	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x5da600…
03-14 22:39:17	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xf8d746…
03-14 22:38:15	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xe95081…
03-13 18:10:57	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	274	63¢	$173	0x0d6e53…
03-13 18:10:53	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	132	95¢	$126	0x647192…
03-12 07:20:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0x71b8e6…
03-11 20:37:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x64db00…
03-10 20:43:45	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xe2c338…
03-10 20:02:23	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	121	91¢	$110	0x8517f7…
03-10 00:02:47	Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?	No	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xb05669…
03-09 21:27:53	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	SELL	77	15¢	$12	0x1dcc79…
03-09 21:10:11	nba nyk lac 2026 03 09	Knicks	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x221bf8…
03-09 20:04:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x82bea1…
03-09 15:12:41	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x1e6647…
03-09 05:16:39	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x16e3ac…
03-09 05:16:23	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x9a445b…
03-08 21:59:09	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xe45606…
03-08 21:58:51	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0x211e4a…
03-08 21:31:35	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	No	SELL	111	1¢	$1	0xae13b1…
03-08 21:27:35	nba nyk lal 2026 03 08	Knicks	SELL	26	22¢	$6	0xc17c2a…
03-08 21:19:03	will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	Yes	SELL	342	1¢	$2	0x490cdd…
03-08 21:09:29	will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	Yes	BUY	342	0¢	$1	0x449c55…
03-08 21:03:35	nba det mia 2026 03 08	Pistons	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x0d8888…
03-08 20:32:53	will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x334a7f…
03-08 20:17:41	nba nyk lal 2026 03 08	Knicks	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xf57066…
03-08 19:58:31	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x0ac69d…
03-08 10:13:21	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 12 278	No	SELL	31	21¢	$7	0xa03786…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	94	$219.3K	20,845	06-09 17:26
Frail-Possible 0x204f…5e14	72	$1.32M	7,892	05-27 03:03
Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9	72	$672.5K	3,362	05-21 02:08
Impartial-Shot 0x05c6…d823	72	$23.0K	166	06-01 08:56
Large-Cartoon 0xd727…ecce	71	$46.3K	223	05-26 08:46
Scornful-West 0x6d3c…d294	70	$1.90M	14,069	05-27 00:40
Lasting-Jar 0xf8c8…7c4c	67	$16.4K	1,825	05-26 14:30
Irresponsible-Autumn 0xd9e0…05f2	66	$665.7K	12,696	05-27 03:04