Optimal-Milk-Hole — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$2.35K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.4%

Resolved (90d)

2,401

Trades (90d)

12,747

14,292 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$99.5K

$103.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-16

last 10-07 06:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 51% -$2,170

Other

4% 55% -$220

Sports

1% 59% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 3942 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	60	$909	1,312	0	+1,312	Up	+$402	09-23 12:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	2	$829	465	465	+0	Up	+$29	10-06 17:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	2	$300	565	0	+565	Down	-$300	10-06 17:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 13:55 UTC	8	$287	373	0	+373	Up	+$86	09-24 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	29	$284	6,423	0	+6,423	Up	-$56	09-22 16:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	28	$280	498	0	+498	Down	-$243	09-22 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	28	$280	627	0	+627	Down	-$155	09-22 17:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	27	$257	507	0	+507	Down	+$110	09-22 16:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 13:45 UTC	13	$255	418	0	+418	Down	-$255	09-24 13:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	25	$250	2,666	0	+2,666	Up	+$31	09-22 17:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 14:30 UTC	18	$243	330	0	+330	Up	+$87	09-25 14:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 14:20 UTC	6	$236	317	0	+317	Up	+$81	09-25 14:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 00:25 UTC	19	$235	398	0	+398	Up	-$235	09-25 00:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	14	$235	359	0	+359	Up	-$99	09-22 16:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	23	$230	2,393	0	+2,393	Down	-$32	09-22 17:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	75	$228	390	0	+390	Up	-$36	09-24 06:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 14:40 UTC	7	$227	299	0	+299	Down	+$72	09-25 14:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 16:20 UTC	11	$225	396	0	+396	Up	+$170	09-24 16:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 16:25 UTC	11	$224	280	0	+280	Up	+$57	09-25 16:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 17:20 UTC	6	$216	312	0	+312	Down	+$96	09-24 17:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 15:50 UTC	10	$216	310	0	+310	Up	-$216	09-25 15:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 17:25 UTC	2	$214	272	0	+272	Down	+$58	09-25 17:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	8	$207	286	0	+286	Up	+$79	09-23 17:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	13	$206	560	0	+560	Down	-$206	09-23 23:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	21	$206	2,548	0	+2,548	Down	-$133	09-22 17:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 15:00 UTC	13	$206	304	0	+304	Down	-$206	09-25 15:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 14:40 UTC	11	$203	335	0	+335	Down	-$203	09-24 14:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	33	$202	353	0	+353	Down	+$152	09-23 04:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	1	$200	230	0	+230	Up	+$30	10-06 14:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 15:05 UTC	13	$198	401	0	+401	Up	+$203	09-25 15:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 06:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0xf97774…
10-06 17:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x4ca8a8…
10-06 17:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	392	51¢	$200	0xc58d2e…
10-06 17:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x17e39a…
10-06 17:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	193	52¢	$100	0x2a0c60…
10-06 17:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	SELL	465	92¢	$429	0x35d8be…
10-06 17:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	465	86¢	$400	0xd0f129…
10-06 15:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0xa90f2c…
10-06 15:06:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	98	71¢	$70	0x2b3723…
10-06 14:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0xdc92e7…
10-06 14:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0x71dee4…
10-06 11:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x1956eb…
10-06 11:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	113	84¢	$95	0xa8addd…
10-06 11:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x73312b…
10-06 11:09:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x627e31…
10-06 11:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x32702f…
10-06 10:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x991373…
10-03 21:54:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 21:55 UTC	Down	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x8d8dc4…
10-02 23:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x215383…
10-02 22:39:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x6b8e30…
10-02 22:24:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x531c05…
10-02 21:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xe54962…
10-02 20:08:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xda478f…
10-02 19:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x816a21…
10-02 19:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0xa7df84…
10-02 19:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xbeadf3…
10-02 19:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xe53dd2…
10-02 19:01:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x6af984…
10-02 19:01:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x00cc03…
10-02 18:46:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	44	80¢	$35	0x43ac60…
10-02 18:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xfc57b3…
10-02 18:24:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x07f6fb…
10-02 18:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x3febce…
10-02 18:02:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xc21748…
10-02 17:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x05780a…
10-02 17:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x8ca4c8…
10-02 17:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x083f0b…
10-02 17:29:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x4caad0…
10-02 17:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0xdbe212…
10-02 17:14:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x7473a7…
10-02 17:07:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x0982bb…
10-02 16:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	39	93¢	$37	0xdd9189…
10-02 16:41:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x084b6b…
10-02 16:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xae1d40…
10-02 16:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x4381eb…
10-02 16:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xcdce5b…
10-02 16:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0xe63f25…
10-02 16:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x465c8c…
10-02 16:07:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xe9e1fa…
10-02 16:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x908c9e…
10-02 15:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x888ab0…
10-02 15:54:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x2acccc…
10-02 15:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x92664a…
10-02 15:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x9c906c…
10-02 15:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xe5b7a6…
10-02 15:22:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xa48207…
10-02 15:19:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	35	58¢	$20	0x149474…
10-02 14:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xd1f935…
10-02 14:51:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x828d96…
10-02 14:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x8a3ef1…
10-02 14:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xd5e571…
10-02 14:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x37a1ff…
10-02 14:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	133	38¢	$50	0x41f89e…
10-02 14:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xb5795a…
10-02 14:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x7fdc46…
10-02 14:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x8ac6ef…
10-02 14:21:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0xc8edf7…
10-02 14:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x45fd7a…
10-02 14:15:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xdba346…
10-02 14:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x2f6e7b…
10-02 13:49:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x5aaf59…
10-02 13:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x089850…
10-02 13:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x5a34a3…
10-02 13:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x3ffee6…
10-02 13:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x170ed8…
10-02 13:06:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	59	84¢	$50	0x3cedb6…
10-02 13:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	59	80¢	$47	0xefbbb6…
10-02 12:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0xd02e4c…
10-02 12:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xf6e63a…
10-02 12:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x9c6569…
10-02 12:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x68755c…
10-02 12:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0xbaedcd…
10-02 11:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x3e8981…
10-02 11:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x8d4bab…
10-02 11:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x4279cf…
10-02 10:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x50186a…
10-02 10:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x774805…
10-02 09:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x0ca2f4…
10-02 07:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	78	61¢	$47	0x56e0f8…
10-02 07:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x433402…
10-02 06:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	36	76¢	$27	0x54f283…
10-02 06:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0xbfb5fe…
10-02 06:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x9a6877…
10-02 05:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x0b71de…
10-02 04:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x539970…
10-02 04:37:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0xad0e9e…
10-02 03:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xb77277…
10-02 03:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xe97073…
10-02 02:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	126	40¢	$50	0x483a52…
10-02 02:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	134	37¢	$50	0x175703…