Decisive-Orange — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

87.0%

Resolved

Trades

230

lifetime

Volume

$5.38K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-03

last 06-25 01:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

45% 50% +$0

Crypto

36% 100% +$4

Politics

11% — —

Sports

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes		+300	$7	2¢	$6	$-1	06-09 12:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6?	2	$402	203	203	+0	Yes	+$2	05-06 14:34
italy nordio reform referendum passes	8	$374	443	443	+0	open	—	03-23 11:15
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	4	$205	282	282	+0	open	—	03-23 11:27
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	8	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-03 04:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?	2	$198	100	100	+0	No	+$2	05-06 14:34
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$191	96	96	+0	open	—	04-13 07:55
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	9	$191	96	96	+0	open	—	03-31 03:06
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	3	$184	100	150	-50	open	—	05-14 06:06
will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	8	$164	82	82	+0	open	—	03-23 07:50
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	8	$153	77	77	+0	open	—	04-17 04:55
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	8	$151	87	64	+23	open	—	04-27 14:08
Will Solana reach $160 in April?	8	$149	75	75	+0	open	—	04-28 14:28
will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	2	$124	100	100	+0	open	—	03-31 02:07
spx opens up or down on march 23 2026	4	$119	150	150	+0	open	—	03-23 08:56
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	4	$114	400	400	+0	open	—	03-23 11:16
will zai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	4	$106	53	53	+0	open	—	03-23 07:51
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	4	$106	53	53	+0	open	—	05-30 13:52
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	4	$106	53	53	+0	open	—	05-14 04:43
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	4	$102	51	51	+0	No	$-0	04-22 12:03
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	6	$92	46	46	+0	open	—	03-23 07:53
Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	4	$86	43	43	+0	open	—	04-07 04:47
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	3	$85	56	29	+27	open	—	04-23 18:49
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$82	41	41	+0	open	—	04-22 12:04
will sweet dreams of joy viva verdi win best original song at the 98th academy awards	4	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	03-16 05:18
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	7	$73	46	46	+0	open	—	04-10 05:26
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	2	$68	50	50	+0	open	—	04-03 04:08
hood up or down on april 13 2026	3	$59	50	50	+0	open	—	04-13 08:20
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	03-02 14:11
Will Solange Couto win Big Brother Brasil 26?	2	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	03-19 12:13
will the secret agent win best picture at the 98th academy awards 938	2	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	03-02 14:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 01:12:25	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$5	0xce8e73…
06-09 12:32:37	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0xd52286…
06-08 11:11:52	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	400	2¢	$8	0xd6f8a5…
06-07 11:40:06	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xe26ba5…
06-07 11:36:18	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$8	0x73ad44…
05-30 13:52:06	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x1ff79c…
05-29 16:55:19	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	208	2¢	$3	0x60f38d…
05-28 17:26:00	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x339958…
05-28 13:56:28	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x165099…
05-28 12:53:30	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xda447f…
05-28 08:20:51	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	180	1¢	$3	0xa16638…
05-28 06:31:09	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x3bc5b4…
05-28 05:42:06	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xdf3f1b…
05-27 07:47:19	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd29f72…
05-27 05:25:48	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xfc4bb0…
05-14 06:06:58	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	125	72¢	$90	0x82f4c5…
05-14 06:04:47	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x1dd464…
05-14 05:57:10	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xcec8be…
05-14 04:43:00	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x3b9e74…
05-14 00:30:02	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xfd21df…
05-11 13:50:33	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x10a463…
05-07 15:36:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xf57a99…
05-06 21:36:32	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x5888d6…
05-06 14:34:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xec13b8…
05-06 14:34:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6?	Yes	SELL	203	99¢	$202	0xb5e274…
05-06 09:44:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0xd3e40f…
05-06 09:41:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x7e41dd…
05-06 07:37:26	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xb47378…
05-03 05:23:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x642dce…
05-03 04:29:18	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x270b2b…
04-28 14:28:06	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x4944ce…
04-27 14:08:04	Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x4d4176…
04-27 13:52:34	Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xba1b97…
04-23 18:49:28	Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xd17769…
04-23 02:23:52	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1ad549…
04-22 14:04:10	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 82000 on april 22	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x6f36a3…
04-22 12:22:04	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x962442…
04-22 12:04:54	Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x826dd8…
04-22 12:04:28	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x3c6c89…
04-22 12:03:58	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x43a633…
04-21 04:44:44	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xbcfd6c…
04-19 09:31:16	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf168a2…
04-19 09:18:04	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x789784…
04-19 05:19:02	Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x187baf…
04-17 09:27:18	ethereum above 2500 on april 17	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xe0b73d…
04-17 04:57:16	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xe99d88…
04-17 04:56:44	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xada293…
04-17 04:55:52	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xef9813…
04-17 04:55:04	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x42b971…
04-17 04:54:32	Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xb6103c…
04-15 20:09:46	Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x45b3cb…
04-15 13:08:50	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xb6eb49…
04-15 12:24:38	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xf33abd…
04-15 06:36:12	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6ce7b0…
04-13 18:59:09	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x9966a8…
04-13 10:16:13	Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x4d185d…
04-13 08:20:03	hood up or down on april 13 2026	Down	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0xe5c2f4…
04-13 08:01:01	highest temperature in ankara on april 13 2026 12c	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x3eab35…
04-13 07:57:19	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x0a98a7…
04-13 07:56:53	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x741265…
04-13 07:55:53	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x8f21a4…
04-13 07:55:25	Will Chaiany Andrade win Big Brother Brasil 26?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x2fd4b4…
04-13 07:40:35	highest temperature in ankara on april 13 2026 12c	Yes	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0x4a8db3…
04-13 07:31:29	hood up or down on april 13 2026	Down	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xe98f87…
04-13 07:31:09	hood up or down on april 13 2026	Down	BUY	43	59¢	$25	0x1334aa…
04-13 07:22:29	highest temperature in ankara on april 13 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0xd7c8db…
04-11 22:21:29	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xda8cc4…
04-11 05:29:59	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xcabd96…
04-10 13:52:37	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x78fd08…
04-10 06:18:27	Will Chaiany Andrade win Big Brother Brasil 26?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x906b0a…
04-10 05:26:21	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0xd7e5e9…
04-10 05:19:07	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x092c56…
04-10 05:13:59	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	13	79¢	$10	0x6420a7…
04-10 05:13:49	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0x1eb5c5…
04-10 05:13:31	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x717c40…
04-10 05:08:25	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xda500f…
04-10 04:56:01	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xc44e25…
04-10 04:55:39	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xce1a3d…
04-10 04:54:23	will sergio garcia win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x12a3c6…
04-10 04:52:25	Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x5b6fa6…
04-10 03:10:09	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	BUY	46	79¢	$36	0x8ef428…
04-08 13:14:27	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xae577b…
04-07 22:11:39	will sergio garcia win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x723145…
04-07 09:12:29	Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x6c2023…
04-07 06:37:21	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x962b5c…
04-07 06:18:59	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	Yes	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0x9f47ea…
04-07 06:17:05	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x379321…
04-07 06:06:43	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 40 64	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x688875…
04-07 06:03:27	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x3bed1e…
04-07 05:52:41	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 40 64	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x9f4fa8…
04-07 05:03:13	bitcoin above 74k on april 7	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xccc5be…
04-07 04:49:05	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x4323fc…
04-07 04:48:43	Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x690296…
04-07 04:47:17	Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x070902…
04-07 04:44:53	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xac1a9e…
04-05 21:19:39	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x501d0c…
04-03 20:51:55	Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x236563…
04-03 13:17:41	donald trump of truth social posts march 31 april 7 100 119	Yes	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0xb8e90a…
04-03 10:50:53	Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa5f507…
04-03 10:44:15	donald trump of truth social posts march 31 april 7 80 99	Yes	SELL	43	44¢	$19	0xaa2586…