Hopeful-Quadrant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$25

Unrealized P&L

-$178

Hit rate

72.0%

Resolved

1,037

Trades

2,870

lifetime

Volume

$11.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$22

1 position

First seen

2026-04-05

last 10-01 06:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 78% -$166

Other

30% 29% -$17

Tech

19% 62% +$189

Politics

2% 33% +$19

Sports

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 591 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes		+592	$200	4¢	$22	-$178	10-01 06:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	13	$1.3K	912	585	+327	Yes	+$93	07-21 07:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$200	592	0	+592	open	—	10-01 06:14
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	3	$197	160	160	+0	open	—	10-01 06:13
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	5	$157	148	31	+117	Yes	+$22	06-27 02:11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	3	$130	233	0	+233	Yes	+$103	07-21 08:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 07:20 UTC	44	$108	239	0	+239	Up	-$11	08-01 07:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 09:00 UTC	47	$98	191	0	+191	Up	-$3	08-01 09:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 07:30 UTC	37	$97	202	0	+202	Down	-$2	08-01 07:34
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	4	$85	85	47	+38	Yes	-$27	06-27 13:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 19:15 UTC	28	$77	127	0	+127	Down	-$5	08-04 19:18
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	8	$57	91	32	+59	Yes	+$27	04-30 22:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 11:35 UTC	22	$56	105	0	+105	Up	-$1	08-01 11:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 18:20 UTC	27	$52	115	0	+115	Up	+$13	08-04 18:23
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$50	53	0	+53	Yes	+$3	07-24 18:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 11:50 UTC	22	$49	95	0	+95	Down	-$4	08-01 11:53
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 27?	4	$49	40	40	+0	Yes	+$29	08-27 08:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 06:15 UTC	9	$48	101	0	+101	Up	+$2	08-01 06:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 11:40 UTC	22	$48	95	0	+95	Down	-$3	08-01 11:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 21:15 UTC	21	$42	90	0	+90	Down	+$3	08-04 21:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:45 UTC	23	$42	85	0	+85	Down	+$8	08-05 21:49
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	05-15 18:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 04:45 UTC	17	$41	70	0	+70	Down	-$1	08-05 04:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 18:45 UTC	27	$40	110	0	+110	Up	+$10	08-04 18:47
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$40	32	32	+0	Yes	+$0	06-05 06:14
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$38	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-26 05:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 11:45 UTC	17	$37	76	0	+76	Up	-$2	08-01 11:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 18:50 UTC	21	$37	85	0	+85	Up	+$13	08-04 18:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 13:55 UTC	19	$37	71	0	+71	Up	-$2	08-05 13:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 07:25 UTC	15	$36	70	0	+70	Down	+$9	08-01 07:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 04:55 UTC	16	$35	70	0	+70	Up	-$20	08-05 04:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 06:14:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	442	23¢	$100	0xa03df5…
10-01 06:13:15	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	56¢	$89	0xf5e45e…
09-18 00:10:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0xe8e87d…
09-17 06:58:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 17?	No	BUY	9	37¢	$4	0xbfc98d…
09-16 08:01:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on September 16?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$2	0x048b0f…
09-14 23:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on September 15?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xe3b2fd…
09-14 06:40:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xc3984e…
09-14 06:40:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x755461…
09-14 06:12:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C or below on September 14?	No	BUY	13	42¢	$6	0xb01cc2…
09-14 05:02:37	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0xcb8360…
09-14 04:41:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 14?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x7458e1…
09-14 03:10:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x7b262a…
09-13 06:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x27611f…
09-13 05:46:09	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on September 13?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x8797cb…
09-13 05:42:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on September 13?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x67938c…
09-07 08:08:06	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc30dc3…
09-07 07:37:19	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on September 7?	No	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0xf50b80…
09-07 06:45:52	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xe9740d…
09-07 06:30:07	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd723c5…
09-07 06:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 7?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x8a0b02…
09-07 06:14:40	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 7?	No	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x5f928e…
09-07 06:09:30	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xaa04c4…
09-07 05:07:37	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on September 7?	No	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x6aad72…
09-07 04:52:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 7?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa447c8…
09-07 04:36:42	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 7?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x738b46…
09-07 04:05:39	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x250b55…
09-07 03:34:30	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 7?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x62ab49…
09-07 03:18:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 7?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4c4a3d…
09-07 03:13:33	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 7?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x8dd9f9…
09-07 02:37:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 7?	No	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x3ae6b3…
09-07 01:35:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 7?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x81df1c…
09-06 14:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 6?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5cb98c…
09-06 09:44:22	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 6?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x27e08f…
09-06 09:08:40	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 6?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x520d8a…
09-06 09:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 6?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x66fd78…
09-06 07:56:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$3	0x6bf2fe…
09-06 07:56:21	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 6?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$3	0x59e6c6…
09-06 07:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 6?	No	BUY	11	33¢	$3	0x1e6578…
09-06 07:09:45	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on September 6?	No	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x9404d8…
09-06 06:48:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on September 6?	No	BUY	10	35¢	$3	0xd6e77f…
09-06 02:50:03	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x88ab01…
09-06 02:08:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0xb2a21a…
09-06 01:53:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0x91b86a…
09-06 01:22:00	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x68336d…
09-06 00:30:06	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x636fa7…
09-06 00:19:43	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xe1c382…
09-05 23:27:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 6?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x277118…
09-05 23:02:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 6?	No	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0xb32206…
09-05 23:01:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 6?	No	BUY	9	40¢	$3	0x4efecc…
09-05 23:01:52	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x95c543…
09-05 23:01:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	46¢	$3	0x32ba11…
09-05 23:01:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 6?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$3	0xa1b2de…
09-05 22:41:07	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 6?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xc6042d…
09-05 21:28:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xef340c…
09-05 19:03:37	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	45¢	$3	0x0ff4c5…
09-05 09:47:06	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 5?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xbc7fe9…
09-05 09:46:45	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 5?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xa06819…
09-05 09:26:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 5?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6d089c…
09-05 09:26:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 5?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8c41bb…
09-05 08:35:04	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 5?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$4	0xcd71cd…
09-05 07:33:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x9dd2c0…
09-05 07:33:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 5?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x8d0bac…
09-05 07:33:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x102431…
09-05 07:23:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 5?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x62c29b…
09-05 07:23:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 5?	Yes	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x0b6d06…
09-05 07:08:00	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on September 5?	No	BUY	9	38¢	$3	0x93e66d…
09-05 07:07:34	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on September 5?	No	BUY	9	39¢	$3	0x8038d2…
09-05 06:52:31	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0xbff603…
09-05 06:52:28	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$2	0x63c397…
09-05 06:52:06	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x432f55…
09-05 06:52:03	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$1	0xdbce8a…
09-05 06:01:06	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x61faf1…
09-05 06:01:03	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	22	16¢	$4	0xaeecd9…
09-05 05:50:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x487e35…
09-05 05:50:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x9c7831…
09-05 05:49:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$1	0xfe2ece…
09-05 05:49:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	No	BUY	11	14¢	$1	0x567a5f…
09-05 05:40:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 5?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc70264…
09-05 05:39:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 5?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xf56d6d…
09-05 05:34:16	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 5?	No	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x92fc93…
09-05 05:30:01	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 5?	No	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0xe29a0f…
09-05 05:19:46	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xb68611…
09-05 05:18:49	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x838b10…
09-05 04:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 5?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x9b3f20…
09-05 04:59:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0x31d20f…
09-05 04:48:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0x353a6e…
09-05 04:48:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 5?	No	BUY	7	23¢	$1	0x0d8f11…
09-05 04:33:03	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0xc7f6ba…
09-05 04:17:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 5?	No	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x114c6a…
09-05 03:50:58	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$1	0xee2ad5…
09-05 03:46:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 5?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x3fbf64…
09-05 03:45:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 5?	No	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x803d0f…
09-05 03:30:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 5?	No	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xc264f0…
09-05 03:30:10	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0xd7ccfe…
09-05 03:30:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	4	42¢	$1	0x874233…
09-05 03:30:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$1	0x696654…
09-05 03:00:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xcedd78…
09-05 03:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x468213…
09-05 03:00:27	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 5?	No	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x383d59…
09-05 02:38:15	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 5?	No	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0x8dcbb4…