Near-Season — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

-$93

Hit rate

60.1%

Resolved

285

Trades

5,099

lifetime

Volume

$59.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$502

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 07-21 10:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

44% — —

Crypto

29% 52% $-22

Other

27% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 470 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes		+575	$500	74¢	$422	$-78	07-07 17:40
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	Yes		+207	$95	38¢	$80	$-15	07-11 04:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	3	$4.1K	2,130	2,130	+0	open	—	06-13 06:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$4.1K	2,409	2,409	+0	open	—	05-24 14:59
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	4	$4.0K	2,062	2,062	+0	open	—	06-08 01:55
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	4	$3.7K	1,900	1,900	+0	open	—	07-19 02:46
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	7	$2.4K	2,409	314	+2,095	open	—	05-31 03:19
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	1	$2.0K	2,056	0	+2,056	open	—	06-08 19:42
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	7	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	07-20 07:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$1.7K	1,333	1,333	+0	open	—	06-14 10:27
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	5	$1.5K	832	832	+0	open	—	07-01 14:04
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	6	$1.3K	800	800	+0	open	—	07-20 00:53
will russia capture kupiansk by september 30 2026	6	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	07-16 19:34
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?	2	$1.0K	532	532	+0	open	—	07-04 07:54
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$1.0K	0	1,493	-1,493	open	—	05-28 15:10
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	1	$1000	1,107	0	+1,107	open	—	07-03 17:47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$993	714	714	+0	open	—	05-29 20:18
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$839	576	576	+0	open	—	06-25 11:24
btc updown 5m 1780808400	1	$800	1,205	0	+1,205	open	—	06-07 05:00
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	11	$751	852	202	+650	open	—	07-19 18:29
israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026	2	$614	319	319	+0	open	—	06-24 11:42
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	3	$536	800	0	+800	open	—	07-20 07:30
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	3	$527	670	95	+575	open	—	07-13 02:55
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	1	$500	611	0	+611	open	—	06-20 14:16
will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	1	$500	537	0	+537	open	—	06-20 13:59
will ethereum reach 1800 in july 2026	1	$500	556	0	+556	open	—	07-03 20:55
will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by december 31 547	18	$493	503	503	+0	open	—	07-17 16:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$448	250	250	+0	open	—	04-26 14:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	9	$431	400	400	+0	open	—	07-18 10:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	11	$419	1,841	1,941	-100	open	—	05-09 15:39
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	7	$322	173	173	+0	open	—	07-09 02:08
btc updown 5m 1780808100	1	$300	521	0	+521	open	—	06-07 04:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 10:20:58	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	306	9¢	$28	0x9b63bf…
07-20 07:45:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x2519fe…
07-20 07:30:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x4a2348…
07-20 06:10:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	400	67¢	$268	0xdbd32f…
07-20 05:20:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0x0a5436…
07-20 00:53:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	800	85¢	$680	0x3dfb17…
07-19 22:41:19	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x712e30…
07-19 18:29:51	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xf671d5…
07-19 17:15:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	144	82¢	$118	0xcd33ea…
07-19 17:07:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	56	82¢	$46	0x6dde94…
07-19 17:07:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xb8deec…
07-19 14:55:10	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 19	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xe3a968…
07-19 14:54:48	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 19	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe93e20…
07-19 10:34:55	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 19	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xd45cd2…
07-19 08:58:43	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 19	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x728449…
07-19 06:31:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x3b9ee9…
07-19 05:34:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x0d4b1f…
07-19 05:04:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0x7e9a30…
07-19 04:26:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xccddf0…
07-19 04:11:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x3fb5f1…
07-19 02:46:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	498	100¢	$498	0xa6d338…
07-19 02:16:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5a6486…
07-19 02:12:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	1,397	100¢	$1,395	0x449823…
07-18 18:12:42	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	Yes	SELL	130	16¢	$21	0xebddaf…
07-18 15:26:25	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x4adf26…
07-18 10:51:34	will russia capture mala tokmachka by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	266	26¢	$69	0x99b7e9…
07-18 10:29:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x31b001…
07-18 10:29:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0xe6987a…
07-17 23:52:46	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x8c5685…
07-17 21:35:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	195	83¢	$162	0x7dcc9c…
07-17 21:35:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x377adf…
07-17 16:52:09	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x71b867…
07-17 16:47:19	will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by december 31 547	No	SELL	200	46¢	$92	0xa816c0…
07-17 16:07:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	200	14¢	$28	0x91ed3e…
07-17 11:18:42	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x1a51ed…
07-17 11:17:57	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x17b620…
07-16 19:34:35	will russia capture kupiansk by september 30 2026	No	SELL	449	88¢	$395	0xe6cb0d…
07-16 18:16:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1,900	94¢	$1,786	0xd70dcf…
07-16 15:02:47	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x4010a1…
07-16 14:52:53	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x175fe2…
07-16 14:52:49	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xcb081a…
07-16 08:55:04	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$4	0x0d812b…
07-16 08:14:52	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$3	0x777ab6…
07-16 01:07:25	will deepseek ipo by march 31 2027 20260714175933545	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x874ee5…
07-16 01:06:28	will deepseek ipo by march 31 2027 20260714175933545	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x5e14d3…
07-15 22:22:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	48	12¢	$6	0x43fce2…
07-15 22:22:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	152	12¢	$18	0x3bb680…
07-15 21:51:50	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	17¢	$7	0x012c2f…
07-15 20:36:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	20¢	$40	0x360f56…
07-15 20:18:34	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	430	86¢	$370	0xf9db0e…
07-15 20:02:55	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 19	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x3e95ef…
07-15 19:48:59	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0xadc29d…
07-15 19:33:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	21¢	$42	0xd1b92e…
07-15 18:55:25	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x018b3b…
07-15 13:07:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x1dcc5f…
07-15 05:41:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	24¢	$48	0x704e48…
07-14 18:32:28	will russia capture mala tokmachka by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	14	32¢	$4	0xcfb3df…
07-14 18:18:05	will russia capture mala tokmachka by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x4e234a…
07-14 18:16:47	will russia capture mala tokmachka by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x5877be…
07-14 18:16:47	will russia capture mala tokmachka by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0x43bb6b…
07-14 17:06:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0xfec9db…
07-14 17:06:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	60¢	$180	0xfec9db…
07-14 13:27:38	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	171	10¢	$17	0xf94201…
07-14 12:29:14	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x160a6b…
07-14 11:21:56	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xf4ddb0…
07-14 05:53:31	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x771a18…
07-14 05:14:53	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x54b3ca…
07-14 05:07:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0x864812…
07-14 04:51:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0xc583a2…
07-13 20:49:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	26¢	$23	0xe6e4a2…
07-13 15:06:02	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x18562c…
07-13 14:28:41	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	102	70¢	$71	0x06e5cb…
07-13 14:07:07	will russia capture kupiansk by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x319d4e…
07-13 02:55:29	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	95	11¢	$10	0x612ef6…
07-13 02:40:32	will russia capture kupiansk by september 30 2026	No	SELL	30	88¢	$26	0xec74f0…
07-13 02:37:58	will russia capture kupiansk by september 30 2026	No	SELL	104	88¢	$92	0x566dc4…
07-13 00:50:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0xa0df6b…
07-12 13:21:44	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	SELL	31	92¢	$28	0x0f9bab…
07-12 13:06:01	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	SELL	69	92¢	$64	0xc0505b…
07-12 11:44:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xd7692a…
07-12 10:39:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	25¢	$13	0x04b1b1…
07-12 06:12:56	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	10¢	$50	0x23a3af…
07-12 05:41:10	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x511cfa…
07-12 04:46:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xb8dd43…
07-12 04:44:40	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	278	37¢	$103	0x73bde2…
07-12 01:22:46	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0xecd3e8…
07-12 01:19:26	will russia capture kupiansk by september 30 2026	No	SELL	16	89¢	$14	0x936f83…
07-12 00:54:10	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	86	20¢	$17	0x41b5d2…
07-12 00:52:25	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x4c2f77…
07-12 00:42:11	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	Yes	SELL	59	11¢	$6	0x2d6cf4…
07-11 22:36:25	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0x025f5f…
07-11 18:57:43	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x79f480…
07-11 14:16:58	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x6730e1…
07-11 14:13:47	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	194	31¢	$60	0xe36d41…
07-11 13:15:56	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	Yes	BUY	75	59¢	$44	0x98fa14…
07-11 13:12:13	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xc86c98…
07-11 12:55:53	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xacd610…
07-11 11:55:26	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	188	18¢	$34	0xb9586f…
07-11 11:45:49	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0xe0db13…
07-11 09:14:56	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	95	17¢	$16	0xe903cc…