Vivacious-Walrus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

70.2%

Resolved

121

Trades

2,381

lifetime

Volume

$6.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-17 15:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

70% — —

Crypto

26% 40% $-34

Other

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 126 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes		+20	$1	5¢	$1	$-0	06-15 05:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	94	$457	14,544	13,001	+1,543	open	—	01-26 23:02
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	111	$326	8,290	7,690	+600	open	—	02-18 22:02
us strikes iran by january 27 2026 458 884 547 617 932	86	$313	11,471	10,255	+1,216	open	—	01-27 21:25
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	139	$269	556	526	+30	open	—	03-29 22:18
us strikes iran by january 28 2026 117 856 648 735 438	63	$200	7,000	7,915	-915	open	—	01-28 20:41
us strikes iran by january 25 2026 759 796 449	33	$180	6,101	6,101	+0	open	—	01-25 19:20
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	57	$159	2,489	2,389	+100	open	—	02-09 22:46
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	91	$137	4,100	3,600	+500	open	—	02-19 20:19
usisrael strike yemen by march 31	40	$125	166	146	+20	open	—	03-29 19:09
will iran strike israel on march 10	20	$123	1,437	77	+1,360	open	—	03-16 21:20
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	2	$115	100	100	+0	open	—	02-28 07:30
will israel strike lebanon on february 5 2026	40	$100	116	116	+0	open	—	02-05 15:07
will israel strike lebanon on february 1 2026	12	$96	60	60	+0	open	—	02-01 11:18
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	82	$89	3,100	2,900	+200	open	—	02-20 22:22
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$83	74	74	+0	open	—	02-28 07:37
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	17	$80	70	70	+0	open	—	03-08 05:52
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	24	$75	275	60	+215	open	—	02-14 13:41
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	70	$75	2,095	1,695	+400	open	—	03-23 20:53
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	22	$72	216	91	+125	open	—	04-03 09:39
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	23	$69	720	320	+400	open	—	02-27 23:03
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	11	$69	1,250	1,200	+50	open	—	01-23 23:28
will israel strike lebanon on march 8 2026	6	$68	35	35	+0	open	—	03-07 13:39
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	24	$60	1,800	1,600	+200	open	—	02-23 21:26
will uae strike iran by march 31	9	$58	55	55	+0	open	—	03-11 06:45
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 4 546	4	$57	30	30	+0	open	—	03-04 13:39
us strikes iran by january 24 2026 318	12	$56	1,500	1,550	-50	open	—	01-24 23:15
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	6	$54	50	50	+0	open	—	03-01 14:06
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	8	$53	35	35	+0	open	—	03-04 13:37
will israel strike lebanon on february 8 2026	21	$50	85	85	+0	open	—	02-08 22:00
will israel strike lebanon on january 31 2026	9	$48	290	40	+250	open	—	01-31 19:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 15:27:44	btc updown 5m 1781709900	Up	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xbcef82…
06-17 15:03:10	btc updown 5m 1781708400	Down	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x9c0829…
06-17 14:43:07	btc updown 5m 1781707200	Down	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xe55103…
06-17 14:28:35	btc updown 5m 1781706300	Up	BUY	16	11¢	$2	0xe48089…
06-17 14:22:29	btc updown 5m 1781706000	Up	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0xa8c6f6…
06-17 14:03:50	btc updown 5m 1781704800	Up	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x432e91…
06-17 13:58:56	btc updown 5m 1781704500	Up	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x72e749…
06-17 09:08:17	btc updown 5m 1781687100	Up	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0xcd6a65…
06-17 08:13:01	btc updown 5m 1781683800	Up	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0x786825…
06-16 16:13:40	btc updown 5m 1781626200	Up	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xc18dff…
06-16 16:03:08	btc updown 5m 1781625600	Down	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x770aa3…
06-16 15:37:38	btc updown 5m 1781624100	Down	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xdeb884…
06-16 15:33:31	btc updown 5m 1781623800	Down	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0x7aaebf…
06-16 14:38:16	btc updown 5m 1781620500	Down	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x60dfc6…
06-16 12:58:19	btc updown 5m 1781614500	Down	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x7112bd…
06-15 22:53:01	btc updown 5m 1781563800	Down	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x1d926f…
06-15 22:38:28	btc updown 5m 1781562900	Down	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x54d278…
06-15 19:58:25	btc updown 5m 1781553300	Up	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x1b3b55…
06-15 19:32:06	btc updown 5m 1781551800	Down	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x1048cc…
06-15 19:26:57	btc updown 5m 1781551500	Down	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0xa55595…
06-15 16:10:01	btc updown 5m 1781539500	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$11	0xbc5af7…
06-15 16:08:16	btc updown 5m 1781539500	Up	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x27d3f7…
06-15 15:53:39	btc updown 5m 1781538600	Down	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0xc8955a…
06-15 14:43:28	btc updown 5m 1781534400	Down	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xaa1e68…
06-15 11:28:24	btc updown 5m 1781522700	Up	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x6dc7de…
06-15 05:16:54	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x04630f…
06-14 23:47:57	btc updown 5m 1781480700	Down	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x101745…
06-14 23:43:48	btc updown 5m 1781480400	Up	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xaf1a89…
06-14 23:17:13	btc updown 5m 1781478900	Down	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0x21a828…
06-14 23:11:37	btc updown 5m 1781478600	Down	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0xa89299…
06-14 22:58:37	btc updown 5m 1781477700	Up	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xa5ef30…
06-14 21:58:24	btc updown 5m 1781474100	Up	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0xdaf44c…
06-14 21:33:45	btc updown 5m 1781472600	Down	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x08c2d8…
06-14 21:27:09	btc updown 5m 1781472300	Down	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xa730ce…
06-13 21:58:55	btc updown 5m 1781387700	Up	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x902c73…
06-13 21:52:19	btc updown 5m 1781387400	Up	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0xe4db38…
06-13 21:47:34	btc updown 5m 1781387100	Up	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xd0ea09…
06-12 17:04:57	btc updown 5m 1781283600	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa21889…
06-12 17:04:57	btc updown 5m 1781283600	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x93cd59…
06-12 17:04:57	btc updown 5m 1781283600	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x3ba20e…
06-12 17:02:43	btc updown 5m 1781283600	Up	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xfc1366…
06-12 16:58:22	btc updown 5m 1781283300	Down	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0x2290c6…
06-12 16:48:30	btc updown 5m 1781282700	Down	BUY	16	11¢	$2	0x33a47b…
06-12 16:28:33	btc updown 5m 1781281500	Down	BUY	14	12¢	$2	0xf3f6e3…
06-12 16:03:57	btc updown 5m 1781280000	Down	BUY	16	11¢	$2	0x6bc2f5…
06-12 14:34:55	btc updown 5m 1781274600	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$11	0x704e9d…
06-12 14:33:45	btc updown 5m 1781274600	Up	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xcf6cd0…
06-10 20:04:48	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4ad959…
06-10 18:31:45	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0xf6616e…
06-10 17:18:42	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xa8a4be…
06-10 16:55:31	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x7a194e…
06-10 16:52:55	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x234cd2…
06-10 15:56:37	btc updown 5m 1781106900	Up	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x55c585…
06-10 05:22:49	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xa662c9…
06-09 21:30:34	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x481a46…
06-09 19:30:45	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xcf8933…
06-09 19:09:52	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x67477b…
06-08 12:16:54	btc updown 5m 1780920900	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x49577f…
06-08 02:10:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	21	52¢	$11	0xce7306…
06-08 01:54:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x1aaaa3…
06-07 21:10:31	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x0b9920…
06-07 20:20:37	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x57d5bc…
06-07 19:21:31	btc updown 5m 1780860000	Down	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x4bcf94…
06-07 19:11:18	btc updown 5m 1780859400	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0xc8f905…
06-07 18:59:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xdbff95…
06-05 16:21:28	btc updown 5m 1780676400	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x79c0ec…
06-05 12:11:07	btc updown 5m 1780661400	Down	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x844e56…
06-05 08:41:51	btc updown 5m 1780648800	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x0e482f…
06-05 06:38:00	btc updown 5m 1780641300	Down	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0xcfd4f1…
06-05 06:38:00	btc updown 5m 1780641300	Down	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0x579f7b…
06-05 06:38:00	btc updown 5m 1780641300	Down	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x3fec56…
06-05 06:36:58	btc updown 5m 1780641300	Down	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xab46e1…
06-05 04:12:36	btc updown 5m 1780632600	Up	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xfbd3e0…
06-05 04:12:36	btc updown 5m 1780632600	Up	SELL	17	40¢	$7	0xd09231…
06-05 04:11:30	btc updown 5m 1780632600	Up	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x3f46ae…
06-05 03:46:48	btc updown 5m 1780631100	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0xd23aed…
06-05 03:31:13	btc updown 5m 1780630200	Down	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x26ce88…
06-04 12:28:04	btc updown 5m 1780575900	Up	SELL	18	40¢	$7	0x974d35…
06-04 12:26:43	btc updown 5m 1780575900	Up	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x7e4da2…
06-04 08:24:42	btc updown 5m 1780561200	Up	SELL	13	40¢	$5	0x355f09…
06-04 08:24:42	btc updown 5m 1780561200	Up	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x252968…
06-04 08:21:34	btc updown 5m 1780561200	Up	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x0ce8a6…
06-03 04:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0xa0e901…
06-02 14:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0xbc23dc…
06-02 14:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	38	6¢	$2	0x8f262b…
06-01 18:27:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x1bd8a6…
06-01 16:57:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x58949a…
06-01 16:47:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x9c40cf…
06-01 15:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	18	40¢	$7	0x5db074…
06-01 15:37:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x37cd53…
05-29 16:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x2f8249…
05-29 15:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0xd83e51…
05-27 15:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x0d483c…
05-27 15:22:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x8df16a…
05-27 14:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x992d31…
05-26 18:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0xd460ca…
05-26 18:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x95716b…
05-24 14:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x8a9b71…
05-24 14:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x954e6f…
05-24 10:37:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x24d908…