Naive-Bonnet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.05K

Unrealized P&L

+$20

Hit rate

52.7%

Resolved

1,134

Trades

2,447

lifetime

Volume

$108.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$44

Open exposure

$38

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-28 00:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 188 days

Categories

Other

72% 44% -$3,315

Sports

25% 44% -$1,709

Politics

2% 33% -$89

Crypto

0% 25% -$21

Tech

0% 100% +$81

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes		-325	-$42	6¢	$-21	+$21	09-14 13:40
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	Yes		+21	$12	57¢	$12	$0	10-28 16:42
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-28?	No	—	+14	$6	38¢	$5	-$1	10-28 16:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
epl tot mac 2026 02 01 draw	3	$1.5K	852	852	+0	Yes	+$205	02-01 20:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	4	$1.3K	700	1,000	-300	No	-$62	05-28 14:23
dota2 aur1 ty 2026 03 12	19	$1.3K	831	831	+0	Team Yandex	+$247	03-12 17:24
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08?	8	$1.1K	1,400	700	+700	Yes	-$350	05-08 19:15
nba orl okc 2026 02 03	1	$1.0K	1,300	0	+1,300	Thunder	+$268	02-03 23:51
Will Batrider be the most banned hero at BLAST Slam VII?	4	$978	500	500	+0	No	-$3	06-04 02:12
cs2 vit g2 2026 02 14	10	$960	600	600	+0	Vitality	+$0	02-14 15:00
cs2 mouz mglz 2026 03 19	12	$949	600	600	+0	TheMongolz	+$180	03-19 19:58
dota2 flc navi 2026 02 17	2	$922	500	500	+0	Team Falcons	+$76	02-17 22:39
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	16	$917	600	600	+0	Houston Astros	+$282	04-26 20:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	8	$897	601	751	-150	Yes	-$52	05-28 14:12
lol gen kt 2026 04 03	10	$859	1,073	0	+1,073	KT Rolster	-$285	04-03 10:21
nba den por 2026 02 20	4	$735	1,000	500	+500	Nuggets	+$235	02-21 03:03
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	15	$720	392	392	+0	No	+$1	06-03 02:44
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02?	2	$716	437	437	+0	No	+$157	05-02 16:49
mlb min kc 2026 04 02	19	$701	984	242	+742	Minnesota Twins	+$181	04-02 19:35
lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20	7	$690	1,000	500	+500	G2 Esports	+$110	03-20 14:37
fifwc ury cvi 2026 06 21 total 2pt5	3	$645	461	440	+21	Over	+$234	06-21 23:10
lal rea get 2026 03 02 rea	3	$644	500	500	+0	No	+$354	03-03 00:44
fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 btts	9	$635	421	421	+0	Yes	+$206	06-17 22:08
lal cel rea 2026 03 07 rea	5	$598	500	500	+0	Yes	-$42	03-06 20:15
dota2 liquid tundra 2026 03 12	15	$578	700	683	+17	Team Liquid	-$324	03-12 19:26
nba sac mem 2026 02 23	2	$565	500	500	+0	Kings	-$5	02-24 01:25
epl mun ful 2026 02 01 mun	2	$549	279	279	+0	Yes	+$9	02-01 18:16
fifwc che can 2026 06 24 corners total 8pt5	5	$545	420	420	+0	Over	+$66	06-24 20:46
fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	3	$545	372	330	+42	Over	+$114	06-20 18:43
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs	1	$544	800	0	+800	GamerLegion	+$256	05-16 18:17
ufc dan6 ben8 2026 01 31	2	$531	300	300	+0	Saint Denis	+$69	02-01 05:26
nhl stl utah 2026 04 16	2	$520	500	500	+0	Blues	+$0	04-17 00:12
fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 btts	2	$518	330	330	+0	Yes	+$142	06-20 22:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:42:04	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0x6aa692…
10-28 16:39:11	Will Malmo FF win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0x0cbf96…
10-28 16:34:22	Will Vasteraas SK win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x6ff820…
10-28 16:19:43	Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x83b143…
10-28 16:19:22	SG Dynamo Dresden vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x7b3124…
10-28 16:19:13	Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0x617aa1…
10-28 16:18:44	SC Paderborn 07 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xf00bee…
10-28 00:42:38	Wild vs. Utah	Wild	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0x69f9e6…
10-28 00:39:47	Wild vs. Utah: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x895060…
10-28 00:03:51	Spread: Knicks (-5.5)	Pistons	BUY	21	57¢	$12	0x98a2c3…
10-27 23:59:08	Kings vs. Blackhawks	Kings	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x40ee97…
10-27 23:58:12	Canadiens vs. Blues: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xeaed89…
10-27 23:54:23	Devils vs. Stars	Stars	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x85ea7b…
10-27 23:52:24	Bruins vs. Hurricanes	Bruins	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x510b27…
10-27 23:48:45	Islanders vs. Predators	Predators	BUY	23	52¢	$12	0xc6c8d5…
10-27 22:18:54	Spread: Celtics (-10.5)	Celtics	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x5da890…
10-27 22:00:33	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$19	0x5aff97…
10-27 21:58:03	Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)	SV Werder Bremen	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x6f6727…
10-27 21:57:36	Torino FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0x84dbc1…
10-27 21:03:41	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x9eac39…
10-27 20:56:54	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0xbb8cde…
10-27 20:56:41	Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x986f0d…
10-27 20:54:33	Torino FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	106	52¢	$55	0x23820a…
10-27 19:45:41	Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)	SV Werder Bremen	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x8d17c6…
10-27 19:45:23	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	17	46¢	$8	0x3d062b…
10-27 19:42:57	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x3f83d7…
10-27 19:37:42	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x59028f…
10-27 19:32:24	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xa50696…
10-27 19:32:14	AIK vs. IF Elfsborg: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xa214d1…
10-27 17:30:11	AIK vs. IF Elfsborg: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x4dcc89…
10-27 17:27:48	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0xc24046…
10-27 16:59:17	Rot-Weiss Essen vs. RB Leipzig: RB Leipzig O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	19	63¢	$12	0x27ff89…
10-27 16:58:44	Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x145f59…
10-27 16:57:42	Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe30d5e…
10-27 16:56:17	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x55f717…
10-27 13:01:53	Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)	Liquid	SELL	13	69¢	$9	0xc1f364…
10-27 11:12:23	Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)	Liquid	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0x12b521…
10-27 02:03:12	Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)	Nuggets	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x468588…
10-27 02:02:26	Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5	Over	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x9f57af…
10-27 01:29:35	Red Wings vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x34eecd…
10-27 00:04:45	Maple Leafs vs. Flames	Maple Leafs	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0xdbe141…
10-26 23:27:23	Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5	Under	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xaf4ee6…
10-26 23:25:12	Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5	Over	BUY	21	57¢	$12	0xbdbe08…
10-26 22:58:48	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5	Under	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0x25222a…
10-26 22:52:47	Spread: Hornets (-3.5)	Wizards	BUY	23	52¢	$12	0x9183c0…
10-26 21:53:23	Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)	CD Santa Clara	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc2234c…
10-26 18:47:59	Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	17	48¢	$8	0x94ec42…
10-26 18:31:27	Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)	CD Santa Clara	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xc8bdd5…
10-26 18:22:56	Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x066755…
10-26 15:15:11	Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0x5f8702…
10-26 15:07:45	Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x51c4a6…
10-26 02:12:24	Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 231.5	Under	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x68c4c6…
10-26 02:01:50	Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 6.5	Under	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xd88d0c…
10-26 01:51:29	Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5	Under	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x837083…
10-26 01:43:38	Avalanche vs. Predators: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x2f5d0b…
10-26 00:24:47	Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0xe43b01…
10-25 23:28:45	Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 231.5	Under	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0xf08a79…
10-25 21:59:27	Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5	Under	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xf73bed…
10-25 21:58:12	Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0x49e41c…
10-25 21:56:21	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x409a06…
10-25 21:54:36	Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 233.5	Under	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x98e842…
10-25 21:34:59	Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: AC Milan 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x836551…
10-25 21:33:20	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x822e3c…
10-25 21:06:06	Avalanche vs. Predators: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	19	63¢	$12	0x3015fa…
10-25 21:03:35	Islanders vs. Stars: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xa2ee1b…
10-25 20:53:14	Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5	Under	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xc551a5…
10-25 20:51:41	AZ vs. FC Twente: FC Twente O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xaacf88…
10-25 20:00:06	AZ vs. FC Twente: FC Twente O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x3d4427…
10-25 19:46:39	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x61e660…
10-25 19:29:42	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	23	53¢	$12	0xc790ba…
10-25 19:29:26	Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: AC Milan 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0xb38362…
10-25 17:51:03	Will AZ win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	17	42¢	$7	0x86163d…
10-25 17:50:48	AZ vs. FC Twente: AZ O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x94cfbb…
10-25 17:45:23	Struff vs. Griekspoor: Match O/U 23.5	Over	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xcdce1d…
10-25 17:40:20	Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$18	0xad043e…
10-25 16:13:00	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x698060…
10-25 16:02:18	AJ Auxerre vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x258a94…
10-25 16:02:08	Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x69ddac…
10-25 15:55:09	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$13	0x872274…
10-25 15:50:20	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xb26033…
10-25 15:49:39	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x883cfe…
10-25 14:40:45	Spread: Club Brugge (-1.5)	Club Brugge	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x9441e9…
10-25 14:32:32	RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd3d243…
10-25 14:32:21	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x3ea64a…
10-25 14:29:11	Struff vs. Griekspoor: Match O/U 23.5	Over	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xfb4641…
10-25 14:25:18	Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x927ce9…
10-25 14:17:33	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0xabac85…
10-25 14:00:15	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xeaf953…
10-25 13:47:38	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	18	61¢	$11	0x92782e…
10-25 13:41:33	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x4366c9…
10-25 13:37:26	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	22	59¢	$13	0x92fd49…
10-25 04:51:26	Medvedev vs. Basilashvili: Match O/U 21.5	Over	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0x75904a…
10-25 04:48:56	Game Spread: Elena Rybakina (-4.5) vs Leylah Fernandez (+4.5)	Leylah Fernandez	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x6b3884…
10-25 02:42:54	Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5	Under	SELL	14	96¢	$14	0x057d64…
10-25 02:28:44	Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5	Under	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xa0177a…
10-25 02:03:54	Spread: 76ers (-12.5)	Bucks	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xbfe950…
10-25 01:58:48	Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 230.5	Over	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x402061…
10-25 01:50:51	Predators vs. Penguins	Penguins	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x466e1a…
10-25 01:49:57	Predators vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5	Under	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x6a3bf4…
10-25 00:38:53	Rangers vs. Senators: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x7bd960…