Guilty-Socialist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$302

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

63.2%

Resolved

8,367

Trades

12,620

lifetime

Volume

$64.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$31

1 position

First seen

2026-01-14

last 11-06 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 196 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 57% +$290

Other

8% 54% +$52

Sports

0% 31% -$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 292 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	—	+32	$25	99¢	$31	+$6	11-06 16:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur	10	$1.7K	1,693	1,693	+0	Alex de Minaur	+$5	10-26 16:20
Erste Bank Open: Luca Van Assche vs Learner Tien	8	$1.3K	1,651	1,651	+0	Learner Tien	+$29	10-26 20:23
Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik vs Lukas Neumayer	2	$514	281	281	+0	Jakub Mensik	+$3	10-26 17:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 13:15 UTC	37	$295	0	590	-590	Down	+$0	01-23 13:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 13:30 UTC	43	$248	0	508	-508	Up	-$6	01-23 13:42
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 12:15 UTC	50	$205	220	216	+3	Up	-$13	02-22 12:19
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan	7	$202	650	570	+80	Adrian Mannarino	+$11	10-25 15:53
wta annli noskova 2026 09 04	1	$198	201	0	+201	Linda Noskova	+$3	09-04 22:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-27 14:45 UTC	15	$167	165	136	+29	Up	-$44	02-27 14:57
Ljubljana: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Ekaterine Gorgodze	28	$159	138	138	+0	Ekaterine Gorgodze	+$2	09-15 13:40
Ljubljana: Weronika Falkowska vs Kristina Novak	28	$152	246	246	+0	Weronika Falkowska	+$2	09-15 15:51
Set 1 Winner: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan	2	$137	75	75	+0	Adrian Mannarino	+$12	10-25 15:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 14:45 UTC	24	$125	0	252	-252	Up	-$1	01-23 14:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 22:45 UTC	22	$119	0	234	-234	Down	+$2	01-20 22:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 09:45 UTC	12	$113	109	107	+2	Up	+$3	01-20 09:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-21 21:00 UTC	25	$103	147	145	+2	Up	-$32	02-21 21:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 23:45 UTC	11	$102	132	54	+77	Down	-$33	01-19 23:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-27 10:15 UTC	10	$102	119	78	+41	Down	-$6	02-27 10:26
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Titouan Droguet	8	$101	145	145	+0	Lukas Neumayer	+$8	10-25 13:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 12:00 UTC	10	$98	96	94	+2	Up	+$1	01-20 12:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 21:00 UTC	3	$96	91	70	+21	Down	-$3	01-24 21:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 19:00 UTC	17	$93	73	34	+38	Down	+$6	01-27 19:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 16:45 UTC	25	$89	0	179	-179	Down	$0	01-23 16:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 12:45 UTC	4	$87	60	30	+30	Up	+$1	03-28 12:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-27 12:00 UTC	5	$84	89	59	+30	Down	-$8	02-27 12:10
Lyon Open: Ugo Humbert vs Corentin Moutet	16	$82	80	80	+0	Corentin Moutet	+$3	10-20 15:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-27 12:15 UTC	5	$79	89	59	+30	Down	-$9	02-27 12:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-27 15:15 UTC	15	$76	91	54	+36	Up	+$2	02-27 15:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-27 18:30 UTC	11	$75	83	54	+29	Down	-$39	02-27 18:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-18 18:15 UTC	11	$75	104	103	+1	Up	+$2	01-18 18:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 16:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xe3d7af…
11-06 16:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xb37a45…
11-06 16:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x994e53…
11-06 16:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xf67c4e…
11-06 16:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xf61623…
11-06 16:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xd44561…
11-06 16:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x5e7aa5…
11-06 16:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xa86645…
11-06 16:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x013f87…
11-06 16:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x8c7b5d…
11-06 16:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x1ebac9…
11-06 16:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x3babca…
11-06 15:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x465823…
11-06 15:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xfaddb1…
11-06 15:35:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xe256bb…
11-06 15:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x22bf08…
11-06 15:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x793d4d…
11-06 15:20:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x2e3be2…
11-06 15:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x87cbfc…
11-06 15:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xe26c71…
11-06 15:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xa84bd7…
11-06 15:06:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xe097d9…
11-06 15:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x2cab3c…
11-06 15:06:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x1a631a…
11-06 15:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xd1d2f2…
11-06 15:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x1e2446…
11-06 14:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x7252a0…
11-06 14:50:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x228d78…
11-06 14:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xc14895…
11-06 14:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x490ed6…
11-06 14:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xfeafee…
11-06 14:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x8c4c0d…
11-06 14:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x52f6f2…
11-06 14:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x37d4a6…
11-06 14:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xee22dc…
11-06 14:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x927c1d…
11-06 14:07:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$5	0x7adfb4…
11-06 13:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x40821b…
11-06 13:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x48f066…
11-06 13:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x12c9cd…
11-06 13:35:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x1c76fa…
11-06 13:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	58¢	$4	0xf19226…
11-06 13:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xd9cc6d…
11-06 13:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x529836…
11-06 13:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xe6f779…
11-06 13:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xb539f2…
11-06 13:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xae4fbf…
11-06 13:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x22c414…
11-06 12:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x127800…
11-06 12:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x5960c8…
11-06 12:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x3f869c…
11-06 12:21:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x8fa1c0…
11-06 12:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0x76c23a…
11-06 12:05:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0x96d6f6…
11-06 12:05:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x77da08…
11-06 12:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xd5ee24…
11-06 12:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x4cc571…
11-06 12:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x496b1e…
11-06 12:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xb7fe0a…
11-06 11:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xec4a1a…
11-06 11:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x97dd1d…
11-06 11:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x318e1a…
11-06 10:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xddf7dc…
11-06 09:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2287ee…
11-06 09:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x196ecb…
11-06 09:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x54d622…
11-06 08:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xc46ed4…
11-06 08:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xb9dac8…
11-06 08:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x8071ba…
11-06 08:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x09545e…
11-06 08:25:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x0930f3…
11-06 08:21:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb9b81f…
11-06 08:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x7866f3…
11-06 08:05:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x631d7d…
11-06 07:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x2a0ffe…
11-06 07:50:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xc8b945…
11-06 07:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x83756e…
11-06 07:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xb10720…
11-06 07:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x86de41…
11-06 07:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xbb2e33…
11-06 07:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x316ba9…
11-06 07:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x206976…
11-06 07:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x161ff0…
11-06 07:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x9aae60…
11-06 07:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x169d0c…
11-06 07:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9eef92…
11-06 07:15:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x1eeb4e…
11-06 07:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$4	0xc9b00e…
11-06 06:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe324c6…
11-06 06:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xd862e0…
11-06 06:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x6e5f04…
11-06 06:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x68068d…
11-06 06:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x367105…
11-06 06:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x18fce6…
11-06 06:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x0d99f8…
11-06 06:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0b04de…
11-06 06:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0xd4b51a…
11-06 06:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x0902f9…
11-06 05:20:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x3d4442…
11-06 05:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xfebbe6…