Disastrous-Closing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$884

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.8%

Resolved

Trades

277

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 10-13 16:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 35% +$1,009

Politics

1% 50% -$116

Other

0% 25% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 03:15 UTC	3	$2.7K	2,290	2,278	+13	Up	+$1,869	03-06 03:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 02:30 UTC	5	$1.1K	1,412	1,238	+174	Up	+$712	03-06 02:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 03:05 UTC	2	$534	633	626	+7	Down	+$134	03-06 03:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 02:20 UTC	6	$476	676	525	+151	Up	+$174	03-06 02:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 02:10 UTC	6	$457	991	936	+56	Up	+$112	03-06 02:14
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 03:10 UTC	2	$438	2,074	0	+2,074	Down	-$438	03-06 03:12
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 03:00 UTC	3	$360	437	433	+3	Up	+$164	03-06 03:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 03:15 UTC	3	$357	3,313	0	+3,313	Up	-$357	03-06 03:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 02:45 UTC	6	$354	3,960	0	+3,960	Down	-$354	03-06 02:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 02:00 UTC	8	$353	694	393	+301	Down	+$104	03-06 02:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 03:00 UTC	2	$303	1,145	1,140	+6	Down	-$97	03-06 03:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 01:45 UTC	7	$224	294	292	+2	Up	+$117	03-06 01:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 03:30 UTC	1	$200	829	0	+829	Down	-$200	03-06 03:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 08:40 UTC	2	$175	152	152	+1	Down	+$126	03-06 08:45
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 03:05 UTC	1	$150	560	0	+560	Down	-$150	03-06 03:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 02:15 UTC	4	$143	211	211	+1	Up	+$95	03-06 02:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 08:45 UTC	5	$133	3,531	0	+3,531	Down	-$133	03-06 08:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 00:40 UTC	2	$121	107	107	+0	Down	+$91	03-06 00:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$117	117,350	0	+117,350	Yes	-$117	04-10 21:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 02:05 UTC	4	$101	617	20	+597	Up	-$99	03-06 02:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 01:35 UTC	5	$88	357	106	+251	Up	-$6	03-06 01:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 00:20 UTC	5	$80	458	96	+361	Up	-$28	03-06 00:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 15:15 UTC	2	$70	224	0	+224	Up	-$70	03-06 15:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 02:15 UTC	2	$67	420	0	+420	Down	-$67	03-06 02:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 00:45 UTC	2	$65	334	0	+334	Up	-$65	03-06 00:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 02:30 UTC	4	$63	387	71	+316	Down	-$43	03-06 02:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 01:50 UTC	2	$61	100	100	+0	Up	+$51	03-06 01:54
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 18:45 UTC	1	$61	654	0	+654	Down	-$61	03-06 18:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 00:05 UTC	6	$55	43	42	+1	Up	+$22	03-06 00:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	6	$52	31	31	+0	Down	+$8	10-01 21:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 16:27:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:25 UTC	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x80ba5f…
10-13 16:24:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:20 UTC	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa0af01…
10-13 16:20:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x7095ef…
10-13 16:19:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:20 UTC	Down	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xbcad4a…
10-13 16:19:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xcfda82…
10-07 15:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x9f6228…
10-07 15:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x5e630c…
10-02 01:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	353	0¢	$1	0xd6e6d6…
10-02 01:11:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x6de38e…
10-02 01:11:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xa2ff00…
10-02 01:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x659b79…
10-02 01:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x0816e3…
10-02 01:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xc059cb…
10-02 01:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x3839e3…
10-02 01:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x78b61b…
10-02 00:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	40	36¢	$15	0x7180d1…
10-02 00:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x268733…
10-02 00:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x3370a8…
10-02 00:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x28fd5b…
10-02 00:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xb23212…
10-02 00:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x2257dc…
10-02 00:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x0dab1d…
10-02 00:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xd97bd5…
10-02 00:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xac5f5b…
10-02 00:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xbd6894…
10-02 00:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	14	50¢	$7	0xd9ba53…
10-02 00:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	12	87¢	$11	0x5c97a7…
10-02 00:52:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x3a9fd5…
10-02 00:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	SELL	6	76¢	$4	0xc89ba3…
10-02 00:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x53a866…
10-02 00:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x839b28…
10-02 00:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x9087f6…
10-02 00:48:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x39c062…
10-02 00:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x49a275…
10-02 00:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x09b3b4…
10-02 00:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xfb6243…
10-02 00:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xb0c204…
10-02 00:37:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8PM ET	Down	SELL	4	87¢	$4	0x10c3f3…
10-02 00:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	14	79¢	$11	0xc8d493…
10-02 00:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	42	36¢	$15	0x4fcf9c…
10-02 00:36:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x2dee8f…
10-02 00:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x076bca…
10-02 00:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xbc339b…
10-02 00:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x8f8c76…
10-02 00:33:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x8ba5c8…
10-02 00:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x5e1d88…
10-02 00:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xe7e754…
10-02 00:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x3d0e0a…
10-02 00:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x7a41eb…
10-02 00:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x30358e…
10-02 00:26:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x190e04…
10-02 00:26:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x1b9d7f…
10-02 00:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x6db2d4…
10-02 00:25:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	14	74¢	$10	0xefb91f…
10-02 00:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x0db1fc…
10-02 00:23:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xe39a46…
10-02 00:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x341ecd…
10-02 00:22:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	4	91¢	$3	0x37ba9e…
10-02 00:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xc47357…
10-02 00:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x23d212…
10-02 00:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x171af7…
10-02 00:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	23	40¢	$9	0x7139d9…
10-02 00:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x0a2c3e…
10-02 00:09:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x912e36…
10-02 00:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x03d975…
10-02 00:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x5bd8fe…
10-02 00:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	87	24¢	$21	0x3d16c9…
10-02 00:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x4a9015…
10-02 00:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xb3c8e5…
10-02 00:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x356c0b…
10-01 21:42:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x812b53…
10-01 21:41:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xa0d0f5…
10-01 21:41:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x04f787…
10-01 21:41:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x377f1b…
10-01 21:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	31	94¢	$30	0xff442b…
10-01 21:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x5bea26…
10-01 21:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x1ac27b…
10-01 21:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x227ee5…
10-01 21:35:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xa0adae…
10-01 21:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x08628f…
10-01 21:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xdb55bc…
10-01 21:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xbf2936…
10-01 21:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x36b849…
10-01 21:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xfb00b3…
10-01 21:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0xb18888…
10-01 21:25:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xcf24f4…
10-01 20:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0xe3efa2…
10-01 20:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x4ffff6…
10-01 20:54:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xd51ea7…
10-01 20:54:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x33626d…
10-01 20:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xadf587…
05-12 11:09:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8f9ed4…
05-12 11:09:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	98	3¢	$3	0x0a6a53…
05-12 11:08:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x6e8f49…
05-12 11:07:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	77	3¢	$2	0x705c17…
05-12 11:07:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb04df2…
05-12 11:07:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6b5cf7…
05-12 11:06:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x64cd2c…
05-12 11:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7af996…
05-12 11:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x992d8d…