Likely-Difficulty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$175

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.9%

Resolved

Trades

529

lifetime

Volume

$2.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-04 08:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

87% 30% -$240

Politics

9% 58% +$36

Tech

2% 50% +$10

Pop-Culture

2% 100% +$19

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-04).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx up or down on january 8 2026	66	$503	522	417	+105	Up	+$2	01-08 19:38
spx up or down on january 2 2026	38	$302	1,260	422	+838	Up	+$61	01-02 20:52
spx up or down on january 7 2026	35	$256	427	250	+177	Down	+$149	01-07 20:17
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	21	$249	383	383	+0	No	+$59	07-19 19:27
spx up or down on january 5 2026	15	$140	4,486	0	+4,486	Up	-$140	01-05 19:40
spx up or down on january 15 2026	48	$104	2,035	450	+1,585	Up	-$38	01-15 20:42
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	16	$97	2,384	2,384	+0	No	-$75	05-28 14:31
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	12	$83	755	0	+755	No	-$83	07-24 17:06
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	5	$68	70	70	+0	Yes	+$24	01-16 12:34
Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?	2	$58	46	46	+0	Yes	+$9	07-21 16:37
spx hit 7000 high jan 2026	13	$54	235	54	+181	Yes	+$8	01-28 11:21
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?	3	$52	38	38	+0	No	+$10	07-24 07:36
gc up or down on january 8 2026	14	$50	72	35	+37	Down	-$5	01-09 01:02
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?	6	$47	151	151	+0	Yes	+$19	07-28 15:36
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$44	50	50	+0	No	+$22	01-16 12:31
will the us next strike iran on january 14 2026 et 369	6	$42	139	139	+0	No	-$4	01-15 00:17
spx up or down on january 21 2026	12	$41	908	5	+903	Up	-$40	01-21 19:41
will warsh say inflation 40 times during july press conference 20260720204109029	3	$37	32	32	+0	No	+$7	07-25 03:26
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	6	$37	205	0	+205	No	-$37	07-24 16:07
will warsh say recession during july press conference 20260720204109052	3	$32	67	67	+0	No	-$4	07-23 20:16
trump out as president by march 31	2	$25	400	400	+0	No	-$1	01-22 09:59
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?	2	$24	100	100	+0	No	-$8	07-23 19:18
spx up or down on january 26 2026	12	$22	590	590	+0	Up	-$6	01-26 19:53
gc up or down on january 7 2026	3	$22	734	0	+734	Down	-$22	01-07 18:20
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	3	$21	20	20	+0	No	+$11	01-16 11:52
googl above 350 on january 30 2026	2	$21	40	40	+0	No	+$2	01-16 11:55
will the us next strike iran on january 15 2026 et 421	3	$19	70	70	+0	No	-$15	01-15 16:02
spx up or down on july 29 2026	6	$18	15	15	+0	Down	+$5	07-29 14:52
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$18	45	45	+0	No	+$3	06-20 20:49
googl above 360 on january 30 2026	2	$17	125	100	+25	No	-$3	01-18 14:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 08:36:23	spx up or down on august 4 2026	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x11d3c4…
07-31 13:14:05	Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x3d321b…
07-30 19:16:33	Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $9.5B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x0cafa2…
07-30 18:10:20	spx up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xaec98c…
07-30 18:00:17	spx up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xaab183…
07-30 17:46:50	spx up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xf49af5…
07-30 17:35:59	Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $9.5B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	55	1¢	$1	0x8cf597…
07-30 14:05:42	Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $9.5B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x646c1b…
07-29 14:52:20	spx up or down on july 29 2026	Down	SELL	15	77¢	$12	0x8c111a…
07-29 13:52:32	spx up or down on july 29 2026	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xe58a73…
07-29 13:37:21	spx up or down on july 29 2026	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xab528c…
07-29 13:35:51	Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $8B and $9.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	30	30¢	$9	0xe93ee6…
07-29 13:31:11	spx up or down on july 29 2026	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x516b08…
07-29 07:57:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xb90ec5…
07-29 07:52:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 29?	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xf2017e…
07-28 17:01:25	will trump say supreme court during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556641	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x189c84…
07-28 15:36:49	Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x85d8ff…
07-28 12:51:32	will trump say worker during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556647	Yes	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0xd8ef92…
07-28 01:01:12	Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x87e437…
07-27 22:46:15	will trump say military during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556645	Yes	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x157d40…
07-27 20:44:36	Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $8B and $9.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x436192…
07-27 17:18:40	Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x85c450…
07-27 17:18:36	Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x86faf0…
07-27 14:31:27	spx up or down on july 27 2026	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xb936ba…
07-27 14:19:16	spx up or down on july 27 2026	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xe2799d…
07-27 14:12:07	spx up or down on july 27 2026	Down	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x7afb8d…
07-27 14:06:30	spx up or down on july 27 2026	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xaad1fa…
07-27 14:03:36	spx up or down on july 27 2026	Down	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0xd49c30…
07-27 14:03:28	spx up or down on july 27 2026	Down	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x82f466…
07-27 13:31:46	spx up or down on july 27 2026	Down	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x4726f3…
07-27 13:31:22	Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?	Yes	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0x056f18…
07-26 21:45:33	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x59ea3c…
07-26 21:45:18	Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the #1 US song this week?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xc34269…
07-26 19:58:40	Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xd25d5e…
07-26 19:43:22	Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xd74af3…
07-26 19:35:22	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xe991f4…
07-26 19:34:34	Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the #1 US song this week?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x150927…
07-26 19:14:54	greater manchester mayoral election restore receives 10 first preference votes 20260713192957526	Yes	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0x3e338e…
07-26 18:59:22	will trump say military during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556645	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x7d5b45…
07-26 18:58:54	will trump say worker during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556647	Yes	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x7a2798…
07-26 17:18:30	greater manchester mayoral election restore receives 10 first preference votes 20260713192957526	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x3a18bf…
07-26 17:01:45	Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $9.5B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xdb8efc…
07-26 17:00:54	Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $8B and $9.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x67bf50…
07-26 17:00:31	Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $9.5B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x7a88be…
07-25 19:42:25	Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?	Yes	SELL	84	17¢	$14	0x0719fa…
07-25 03:26:33	will warsh say inflation 40 times during july press conference 20260720204109029	No	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x1d3f86…
07-24 17:06:25	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	120	4¢	$4	0xe0ea0e…
07-24 16:07:28	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	28	15¢	$4	0x29090f…
07-24 07:36:33	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?	No	SELL	38	83¢	$31	0x26c8a2…
07-24 00:51:24	Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0xa72a89…
07-23 21:29:12	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	27	3¢	$1	0xc20823…
07-23 21:29:10	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0xc2a668…
07-23 20:27:00	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xaeb0d9…
07-23 20:26:34	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xf2bf10…
07-23 20:22:03	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xec4cd8…
07-23 20:18:09	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x075ecc…
07-23 20:16:27	will warsh say recession during july press conference 20260720204109052	Yes	SELL	67	21¢	$14	0x37ed2f…
07-23 19:18:43	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	66	21¢	$14	0x3608c7…
07-23 19:18:12	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xecd0b6…
07-23 19:17:12	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xe5e43e…
07-22 14:22:13	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?	No	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0x52b56a…
07-22 13:42:52	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?	No	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0xb1fc8e…
07-22 12:04:36	yevhen khmara appointed as ukrainian minister of defence by july 31 20260716170825742	Yes	SELL	134	3¢	$4	0xa7e9f2…
07-22 11:16:30	andrii sybiha appointed as ukrainian minister of foreign affairs by july 31 20260716170642931	Yes	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0x7a8db4…
07-22 10:52:18	andrii sybiha appointed as ukrainian minister of foreign affairs by july 31 20260716170642931	Yes	BUY	70	5¢	$4	0x0a6762…
07-22 10:50:46	yevhen khmara appointed as ukrainian minister of defence by july 31 20260716170825742	Yes	BUY	134	10¢	$13	0xcf7784…
07-22 09:56:52	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xd2c0ad…
07-22 08:23:19	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x6ab211…
07-22 06:49:24	will warsh say inflation 40 times during july press conference 20260720204109029	No	SELL	30	69¢	$21	0xe81b28…
07-22 06:26:27	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xa34ad9…
07-22 05:54:52	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	46	16¢	$7	0x30aee4…
07-22 05:54:01	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	230	12¢	$27	0x031487…
07-21 22:22:43	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	29	22¢	$6	0xf9922a…
07-21 22:10:30	Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x96b752…
07-21 19:45:22	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x7ca412…
07-21 18:20:22	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x4e190d…
07-21 18:19:49	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?	Yes	BUY	81	28¢	$23	0x9cd650…
07-21 17:46:48	Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?	Yes	BUY	145	10¢	$14	0xd18b00…
07-21 17:21:37	will warsh say recession during july press conference 20260720204109052	Yes	BUY	12	27¢	$3	0x7102e2…
07-21 17:21:15	will warsh say recession during july press conference 20260720204109052	Yes	BUY	55	27¢	$15	0xf1e479…
07-21 17:09:30	will warsh say inflation 40 times during july press conference 20260720204109029	No	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0x693afb…
07-21 16:37:31	Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?	Yes	SELL	46	73¢	$34	0x415200…
07-21 15:26:46	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	331	1¢	$3	0x831f71…
07-21 15:12:57	Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?	Yes	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x1a5452…
07-21 14:27:37	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0x86181f…
07-21 14:25:00	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x31c99b…
07-19 19:27:48	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	156	43¢	$66	0xfa3f52…
07-18 04:00:06	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	34	47¢	$16	0xc08847…
07-17 19:17:37	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x542947…
07-17 19:13:16	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x9cef40…
07-17 18:28:22	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	331	2¢	$8	0x41ddff…
07-17 18:15:40	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	37	36¢	$13	0x965bbe…
07-17 14:32:58	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xe9db72…
07-17 14:30:34	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x5bb0cc…
07-17 14:30:04	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	37	37¢	$14	0x35ab28…
07-17 14:17:15	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	38	37¢	$14	0x5d1d17…
07-17 14:06:46	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	45	37¢	$17	0x0bd957…
07-17 14:00:15	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	55	37¢	$20	0xa54c42…
07-17 13:47:06	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xcdaf16…
07-17 13:38:58	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x5b5cab…