Raw-Hybridisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.16K

Unrealized P&L

-$70

Hit rate

52.2%

Resolved

Trades

291

lifetime

Volume

$7.01K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 10-05 12:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Politics

49% 32% -$364

Other

36% 32% -$293

Crypto

8% 22% -$96

Tech

7% 20% -$411

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+200	$30	3¢	$6	-$24	09-05 17:51
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes		+200	$50	2¢	$4	-$46	10-05 12:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	15	$456	926	798	+128	No	+$216	04-02 18:13
will israel take military action in gaza on march 31 2026	11	$376	1,594	200	+1,394	Yes	-$176	04-02 15:49
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	6	$273	300	300	+0	Yes	+$75	04-09 11:31
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	7	$249	678	428	+250	No	+$29	04-16 18:56
will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	4	$242	409	409	+0	Yes	+$112	03-27 16:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$227	5,914	5,914	+0	Yes	-$10	04-07 13:49
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	6	$219	296	296	+0	No	+$19	03-31 15:08
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	3	$213	460	160	+300	No	-$37	04-09 15:32
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	8	$206	1,325	1,325	+0	No	+$16	04-02 11:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$190	200	200	+0	No	+$50	04-07 20:53
will iran strike oman again in march	4	$184	150	150	+0	No	+$115	04-05 09:49
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	13	$183	170	170	+0	No	+$83	04-03 08:47
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$166	855	0	+855	Yes	-$166	04-03 15:56
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	1	$150	429	0	+429	No	-$150	03-19 12:35
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	1	$150	227	0	+227	Yes	-$150	03-19 12:36
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$150	333	333	+0	No	+$50	04-22 12:31
bitboy convicted	3	$148	328	328	+0	No	+$48	03-31 13:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$139	273	273	+0	No	+$79	04-11 19:21
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$135	450	450	+0	No	+$35	04-07 05:28
gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	7	$126	609	0	+609	No	-$126	04-10 11:44
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	9	$124	350	350	+0	No	+$40	04-22 13:24
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	4	$123	150	150	+0	Yes	+$87	09-15 11:07
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	3	$118	420	366	+54	No	+$51	04-07 22:54
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	4	$113	759	0	+759	No	-$113	04-22 12:37
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	8	$104	4,508	0	+4,508	No	-$104	05-02 23:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	3	$100	135	135	+0	Up	$0	05-04 12:24
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	3	$98	590	0	+590	No	-$98	09-29 14:20
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	2	$96	126	126	+0	No	-$4	04-04 17:48
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	2	$95	77	77	+0	Yes	+$35	09-04 18:43
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	3	$85	5,096	0	+5,096	No	-$85	04-22 12:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 12:17:38	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x1b48fc…
10-02 15:43:50	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x78758e…
10-02 15:21:56	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xc9f783…
09-29 14:20:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	Yes	BUY	400	7¢	$29	0x097d71…
09-29 14:11:17	next us iran senior diplomatic meeting by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	227	12¢	$27	0xf543b4…
09-29 11:31:38	next us iran senior diplomatic meeting by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xa8f0d9…
09-29 09:45:21	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0xe540b7…
09-29 09:44:42	next us iran senior diplomatic meeting by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	53	12¢	$6	0x4953f5…
09-28 20:42:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x6aec80…
09-28 16:59:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	Yes	BUY	90	39¢	$35	0x8fbfb7…
09-15 11:07:18	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	70¢	$105	0xac6359…
09-14 16:25:40	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	12¢	$13	0x292047…
09-14 16:19:49	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0xa5b672…
09-14 15:02:51	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x13f7bf…
09-11 12:43:15	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xc5e53c…
09-10 18:09:00	LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	466	4¢	$20	0xbd417a…
09-10 17:08:07	LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	344	9¢	$30	0x7281c9…
09-10 12:05:46	LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	89	23¢	$20	0xb7e373…
09-08 17:05:30	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0x17d3c7…
09-08 12:40:18	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	Yes	BUY	130	30¢	$39	0x51b3b3…
09-05 17:51:57	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x0e3154…
09-04 18:43:36	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	85¢	$65	0x918bbc…
09-04 12:30:25	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0xe685b9…
09-01 22:19:31	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	5,210	0¢	$10	0xce4e13…
08-28 18:58:06	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	230	25¢	$58	0x818075…
08-28 13:51:03	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	99	10¢	$10	0x522903…
08-28 13:50:09	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x0af7c1…
05-08 15:54:45	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	300	10¢	$30	0xcaa510…
05-06 03:15:42	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xc2bb8b…
05-05 15:04:36	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xdf9c9e…
05-05 15:03:38	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xd12d60…
05-05 15:03:36	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xba3c4b…
05-05 15:03:36	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xb34899…
05-05 15:03:36	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x09f514…
05-05 11:06:20	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0xbe3799…
05-05 11:05:34	Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0x52422e…
05-05 11:00:12	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xe1f38f…
05-05 10:17:06	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	1¢	$4	0x285871…
05-05 07:46:06	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x2e8d44…
05-05 07:45:56	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0xb4d628…
05-05 07:09:30	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x069e60…
05-04 19:04:32	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xedd77b…
05-04 18:34:50	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xfb7578…
05-04 18:34:50	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xaba50d…
05-04 18:34:50	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xaa01de…
05-04 17:28:56	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xb1104b…
05-04 17:28:56	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xa6400f…
05-04 17:28:54	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	1¢	$1	0x21118a…
05-04 17:28:54	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x0a36b1…
05-04 13:22:14	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xc9039c…
05-04 12:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	135	37¢	$50	0xc00d11…
05-04 12:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x218537…
05-04 12:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x17167d…
05-04 12:01:10	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	4,000	0¢	$20	0xc96f9a…
05-04 09:07:06	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xfc43d5…
05-04 09:07:06	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xd2b381…
05-04 09:07:06	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xb63929…
05-04 09:07:06	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x9216a8…
05-04 09:07:06	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x86243b…
05-04 09:07:06	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x565ddb…
05-04 08:04:18	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x49dd70…
05-04 08:04:16	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xf968d9…
05-04 08:04:16	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa3a46d…
05-04 08:03:10	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	257	1¢	$3	0x7879e7…
05-04 08:03:10	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	1¢	$1	0x627237…
05-04 08:03:10	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x1b8124…
05-04 08:02:16	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xb959a0…
05-04 08:01:32	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	1¢	$1	0x8fdb50…
05-04 08:01:28	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	1¢	$0	0xcfb480…
05-04 08:01:28	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	1¢	$1	0xabffac…
05-04 04:46:48	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x5aec2d…
05-03 21:05:18	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	1¢	$1	0x2a0c48…
05-03 20:35:20	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	1¢	$0	0x4f3de6…
05-03 20:30:36	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x6989d2…
05-03 18:53:40	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd3b1b1…
05-03 18:53:40	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc88a97…
05-03 13:03:24	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xebb087…
05-02 23:18:52	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	2¢	$1	0x7e48b2…
05-02 23:18:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	327	2¢	$7	0x07d81f…
05-02 23:01:28	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xe51d0c…
05-02 22:58:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xe3f495…
05-02 22:58:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	2¢	$2	0x6f14c2…
05-02 22:58:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	490	2¢	$10	0x4c6ffd…
05-02 22:26:20	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	229	2¢	$5	0x25afc5…
05-02 09:01:02	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	BUY	562	9¢	$50	0xc47781…
05-02 08:59:24	Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	529	1¢	$5	0xec9651…
05-01 12:52:56	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,298	2¢	$80	0xbde5d1…
04-22 13:26:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0x054e71…
04-22 13:24:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	SELL	350	23¢	$82	0x59c9a3…
04-22 12:37:28	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	429	7¢	$30	0xccaeff…
04-22 12:37:16	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	1¢	$20	0xf6e9cc…
04-22 12:31:16	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	333	30¢	$100	0x8026aa…
04-22 10:43:32	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,296	1¢	$20	0x675870…
04-22 10:12:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	230	12¢	$28	0xc58bb9…
04-22 10:11:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x9f59a7…
04-22 10:11:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd1a8d5…
04-22 10:04:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x8c4d6a…
04-22 10:02:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0x67c738…
04-22 10:01:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	223	18¢	$40	0xd1f811…
04-22 10:01:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	223	18¢	$40	0xd6ccb6…