Muddy-Pollutant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$593

Unrealized P&L

+$53

Hit rate

81.2%

Resolved

1,282

Trades

2,853

lifetime

Volume

$59.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$675

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 11-06 07:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

71% 77% +$123

Crypto

25% 63% +$376

Politics

3% 70% +$77

Tech

0% 100% +$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+220	$169	87¢	$192	+$23	10-25 06:44
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?	Yes	+150	$120	92¢	$138	+$18	11-01 05:01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+167	$90	74¢	$122	+$32	10-24 02:57
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by November 30?	Yes	+69	$62	91¢	$63	+$1	11-01 04:59
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Yes	+50	$42	99¢	$50	+$7	10-28 05:05
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	No	+101	$77	38¢	$39	-$38	11-01 04:55
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un by November 30?	No	+31	$28	94¢	$29	+$1	11-01 18:49
Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	+20	$19	96¢	$19	+$1	11-06 07:31
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+20	$10	88¢	$18	+$8	10-30 18:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+5	$4	76¢	$4	+$0	10-26 15:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in denver on april 6 2026 59forbelow	9	$668	464	261	+203	No	+$36	04-04 23:25
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 2?	4	$550	350	350	+0	No	+$150	05-02 14:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 15:05 UTC	14	$537	310	286	+24	Down	+$24	04-15 15:08
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 28?	8	$523	342	259	+83	No	$0	04-28 20:15
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 19 2026?	2	$496	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$504	10-20 08:31
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	1	$470	500	0	+500	No	+$30	03-29 03:43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$466	530	0	+530	Yes	+$64	10-22 01:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 00:20 UTC	10	$454	550	0	+550	Down	+$46	04-16 00:22
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 29?	5	$450	234	234	+0	No	+$18	04-29 14:10
highest temperature in beijing on april 20 2026 26c	1	$427	436	0	+436	No	+$9	04-18 06:19
highest temperature in wellington on april 15 2026 16c	10	$389	230	228	+2	No	-$8	04-14 16:26
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 28?	7	$349	406	0	+406	Yes	-$349	04-28 13:04
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 260 279	5	$310	360	0	+360	No	+$50	04-10 11:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 02:25 UTC	3	$299	310	0	+310	Up	+$11	04-22 02:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:15 UTC	2	$298	310	0	+310	Down	+$2	04-15 11:19
highest temperature in paris on april 3 2026 8corbelow	1	$294	300	0	+300	No	+$6	04-01 15:30
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	4	$290	151	151	+1	No	+$12	04-22 15:54
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 26?	19	$284	252	149	+103	No	+$26	04-25 02:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:30 UTC	1	$282	300	0	+300	Up	+$18	04-15 11:31
highest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 18c	4	$266	291	0	+291	No	+$25	04-22 23:58
donald trump of truth social posts april 7 april 14 120 139	1	$261	267	0	+267	Yes	+$6	04-14 11:48
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	1	$261	290	0	+290	No	+$29	04-03 12:56
highest temperature in moscow on april 19 2026 7c	3	$260	280	0	+280	No	+$20	04-19 09:36
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 28?	1	$259	263	0	+263	Yes	-$259	04-28 08:08
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 23?	2	$251	133	133	+0	No	+$12	10-23 05:23
highest temperature in shanghai on april 20 2026 18c	4	$241	123	123	+0	No	+$5	04-20 06:05
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of October 19 2026?	5	$237	210	210	+0	No	+$124	10-21 13:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 14:30 UTC	5	$236	200	100	+100	Down	+$60	04-15 14:34
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 23?	1	$236	262	0	+262	No	+$26	10-22 01:21
wti up or down on april 13 2026	4	$225	230	0	+230	Up	+$5	04-13 14:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 07:31:55	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xd06da5…
11-05 08:06:31	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $130 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x197c5b…
11-05 07:30:03	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xaf4c99…
11-05 07:25:13	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $132.50 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xfd3f84…
11-04 12:24:31	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 4?	Up	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xc2c6a4…
11-03 04:55:37	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x132208…
11-03 04:44:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x34fdce…
11-03 04:44:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x4bcdf7…
11-03 04:21:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x8d57c9…
11-01 18:49:07	Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un by November 30?	No	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0x7badd4…
11-01 05:01:33	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?	Yes	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0x5bb152…
11-01 04:59:42	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by November 30?	Yes	BUY	69	89¢	$62	0x11abcc…
11-01 04:57:09	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x91cb3a…
11-01 04:55:25	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	101	76¢	$77	0xfdab52…
11-01 04:37:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x920eb5…
11-01 04:25:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on November 1?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x7c8589…
11-01 04:12:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 1?	Yes	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0x8ea6fd…
10-31 06:19:27	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xecfec0…
10-31 06:08:52	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x9fa2dd…
10-30 18:40:46	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x139251…
10-30 17:32:07	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	No	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0xc20e57…
10-30 03:18:36	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	95	94¢	$89	0x1ac2e3…
10-30 03:18:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	27	78¢	$21	0x584642…
10-30 03:13:00	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xef708c…
10-30 03:12:31	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	No	BUY	44	80¢	$35	0xf70fc5…
10-30 00:21:51	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	No	BUY	98	10¢	$10	0x36ea0e…
10-30 00:20:33	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	No	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xe4c13a…
10-29 22:55:43	Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xa6292c…
10-29 22:19:01	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xd936e0…
10-29 05:24:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 29?	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x1da7f1…
10-29 05:20:58	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xb61dc2…
10-29 01:05:46	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0e3e53…
10-29 01:05:44	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x922ea0…
10-29 01:03:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0xf40f36…
10-29 01:02:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xbf7ace…
10-29 00:56:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x6db741…
10-29 00:53:28	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x23bca0…
10-29 00:49:11	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x5acfe9…
10-28 19:07:38	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	No	BUY	79	88¢	$70	0x70de43…
10-28 10:24:40	Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0x2b9b58…
10-28 09:29:05	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x4b7150…
10-28 05:05:53	Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Yes	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0xdbd022…
10-28 05:05:53	Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Yes	BUY	17	85¢	$14	0x478aab…
10-28 05:05:53	Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x21ac5d…
10-28 03:49:44	Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xae62a6…
10-28 03:48:49	Will the Republican Party win the FL-21 House seat?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x8357b9…
10-27 15:08:12	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0x279190…
10-27 15:07:24	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	82	50¢	$41	0x20e968…
10-27 05:04:23	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9a323b…
10-27 00:22:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	78	94¢	$73	0xb2ca23…
10-26 19:47:42	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x9c6e91…
10-26 19:21:14	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x1187b7…
10-26 19:09:23	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x1a3608…
10-26 18:57:06	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x309aa4…
10-26 18:54:32	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	73¢	$9	0x3da237…
10-26 18:53:00	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x307107…
10-26 15:43:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x0ce642…
10-26 04:44:26	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	No	BUY	123	18¢	$22	0x38c4de…
10-26 04:42:44	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0x3a4e0b…
10-26 01:53:56	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xdd5cee…
10-26 01:49:50	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	No	BUY	82	87¢	$71	0x6e5317…
10-25 18:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	25	78¢	$20	0x1687cf…
10-25 14:53:18	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x463fae…
10-25 06:44:05	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	77¢	$169	0x9bd56e…
10-25 06:22:26	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	45	99¢	$44	0x4b194c…
10-25 06:21:23	LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	T1	BUY	101	88¢	$89	0x849b1f…
10-25 06:05:26	StarCraft II: ByuN vs Lambo (BO3) - IntoTheTV x SOOP SC2 League Premier Group C	ByuN	BUY	101	79¢	$80	0x6b2d0e…
10-25 05:36:20	StarCraft II: Clem vs Classic (BO3) - IntoTheTV x SOOP SC2 League Premier Group D	Clem	BUY	45	83¢	$37	0xc055d2…
10-25 05:35:59	StarCraft II: Clem vs Classic (BO3) - IntoTheTV x SOOP SC2 League Premier Group D	Clem	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xe33880…
10-25 04:36:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	70	79¢	$56	0x2f0472…
10-25 04:32:20	Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	Yes	BUY	60	23¢	$14	0x38b0de…
10-25 04:21:24	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xa1ad82…
10-25 04:13:06	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0xbaa008…
10-25 04:01:51	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x0bc106…
10-25 03:59:54	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	17¢	$15	0xf462db…
10-25 03:59:15	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x852df2…
10-24 19:04:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x82f546…
10-24 13:33:50	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x49665b…
10-24 02:57:39	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	54¢	$90	0x6f20e4…
10-24 02:36:12	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x96f2a5…
10-23 17:37:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 24?	No	BUY	90	94¢	$85	0x82f877…
10-23 17:36:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24?	No	BUY	90	94¢	$85	0xdc88bc…
10-23 17:29:57	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x915b26…
10-23 10:40:51	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 25?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x2a4f59…
10-23 06:28:50	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 23?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x30938f…
10-23 05:23:08	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 23?	No	SELL	133	99¢	$132	0x23cf7f…
10-22 17:07:48	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	216	36¢	$78	0xfafe1b…
10-22 16:59:23	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 21?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x957aa6…
10-22 06:45:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8cb285…
10-22 06:45:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x7378f2…
10-22 06:41:57	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 22?	No	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0x21ffa1…
10-22 06:39:02	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 22?	No	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0x3be561…
10-22 06:38:53	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 22?	No	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xc51d27…
10-22 06:38:32	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 22?	No	SELL	117	3¢	$4	0x3021dd…
10-22 01:59:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	530	88¢	$466	0x368f9d…
10-22 01:34:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 22?	No	BUY	191	76¢	$146	0x0df27f…
10-22 01:21:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 23?	No	BUY	262	90¢	$236	0xf07beb…
10-22 01:17:32	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 23?	No	BUY	235	83¢	$195	0x9ccba9…
10-22 01:16:29	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 23?	No	BUY	133	90¢	$120	0xb58d1b…
10-22 01:15:27	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd929f9…