Trusting-Lecture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

Trades

5,970

lifetime

Volume

$8.73K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 05-28 19:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 53% $-16

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 550 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 74k on march 19	126	$311	720	714	+6	open	—	03-14 17:14
bitcoin above 74k on march 18	122	$275	749	744	+5	open	—	03-14 17:14
btc updown 15m 1773396000	86	$181	456	214	+242	open	—	03-13 10:10
bitcoin above 70k on march 18	112	$180	733	731	+3	open	—	03-16 07:55
ethereum up or down march 12 5am et	71	$166	246	260	-14	open	—	03-12 09:53
eth updown 15m 1773306000	55	$149	323	130	+193	open	—	03-12 09:11
will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	90	$143	167	167	+0	open	—	03-14 17:08
will bitcoin dip to 70k on march 14	94	$133	107	105	+1	open	—	03-14 17:04
ethereum above 2185 on april 9 2026 12pm et	10	$119	126	107	+19	open	—	04-09 15:30
bitcoin above 70k on march 16	80	$119	104	102	+1	open	—	03-14 17:05
eth updown 15m 1773307800	39	$116	152	89	+63	open	—	03-12 09:37
bitcoin up or down march 12 5am et	59	$108	172	181	-10	open	—	03-12 09:59
bitcoin above 74k on march 16	78	$106	142	140	+2	open	—	03-16 07:51
will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 16	67	$100	100	99	+2	open	—	03-16 07:48
will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on march 16	68	$99	144	140	+4	open	—	03-16 14:48
btc updown 5m 1775749800	21	$84	180	0	+180	open	—	04-09 15:53
btc updown 15m 1773398700	55	$83	105	102	+3	open	—	03-13 10:58
btc updown 5m 1773396000	33	$82	1,837	25	+1,811	open	—	03-13 10:04
ethereum up or down march 13 6am et	34	$76	69	66	+3	open	—	03-13 10:17
bitcoin above 76k on march 18	56	$74	62	61	+0	open	—	03-16 07:47
bitcoin above 74k on march 17	50	$70	41	41	+0	open	—	03-14 16:59
will bitcoin dip to 71k on march 16	56	$69	41	41	+0	open	—	03-16 07:52
btc updown 15m 1773406800	60	$66	80	57	+23	open	—	03-13 13:14
solana up or down on april 10 2026	4	$64	76	76	+0	open	—	04-09 16:34
bitcoin above 68k on march 16	51	$62	37	36	+0	open	—	03-14 16:58
btc updown 15m 1773389700	37	$54	83	57	+26	open	—	03-13 08:27
will solana reach 85 on april 10	2	$52	50	50	+0	open	—	04-10 09:52
bitcoin up or down march 17 2026 5am et	31	$52	47	47	+1	open	—	03-17 09:55
btc updown 15m 1773393300	23	$51	73	31	+41	open	—	03-13 09:27
bitcoin up or down march 14 12pm et	26	$51	44	43	+1	open	—	03-14 16:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-28 19:32:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xa71854…
05-28 19:27:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	22	4¢	$1	0xa250f3…
05-28 18:10:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xbdee15…
05-20 01:42:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xb91093…
05-20 01:39:54	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xa9312d…
05-20 01:39:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xfe8f00…
05-20 01:38:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xa1512b…
05-18 08:37:11	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x84ed20…
05-18 08:36:32	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x82937e…
05-18 08:34:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET	Up	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xf695a4…
05-18 07:49:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x332fcd…
05-18 07:48:09	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x31bb8d…
05-18 01:07:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x8e88ff…
05-17 17:49:54	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET	Down	SELL	9	61¢	$5	0xa99826…
05-17 17:47:39	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0x2041c6…
05-17 17:40:50	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x80b142…
05-17 16:55:04	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET	Down	SELL	15	39¢	$6	0x17ffb5…
05-17 16:54:15	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x968b9b…
05-17 14:37:12	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xa37936…
05-17 12:13:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	32	53¢	$17	0xa61b3c…
05-10 10:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x2920b1…
05-10 09:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xce4075…
05-10 08:04:25	XRP Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x1c5ff4…
05-09 02:02:23	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x384a9e…
05-09 01:47:42	XRP Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xe9db98…
05-08 19:19:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xaef13c…
05-08 18:56:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x086786…
05-08 17:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x9e8a0d…
05-08 17:17:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x929182…
05-08 16:43:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x460d9e…
05-08 04:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x4f981a…
05-08 04:12:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x3af0be…
05-08 03:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x93e73c…
05-07 23:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xb29230…
05-07 20:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xaddfed…
05-06 15:51:57	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x4e5798…
05-06 14:26:42	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x80d86e…
04-30 13:32:10	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x927a6e…
04-30 13:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x8c1896…
04-30 13:30:20	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x292913…
04-30 13:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x435aa7…
04-30 13:25:26	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x54475f…
04-30 12:59:50	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x28f646…
04-30 12:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x8fe790…
04-30 12:41:42	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x132d93…
04-30 12:35:14	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4e9bc6…
04-30 12:31:26	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x75afb3…
04-30 12:30:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x977d01…
04-30 12:20:28	XRP Up or Down - April 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xc9808c…
04-30 12:15:30	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x5c87a2…
04-30 11:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x0f0935…
04-30 11:46:02	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x70d990…
04-30 11:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xd95cae…
04-30 11:27:00	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x00b608…
04-30 11:10:50	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x10e994…
04-30 11:10:40	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x422b3c…
04-30 11:00:30	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x48d968…
04-30 10:26:06	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x3548ac…
04-30 10:11:48	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xe39af8…
04-30 10:09:34	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x145237…
04-30 09:43:20	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8754b7…
04-30 09:30:18	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x6351e9…
04-30 09:20:54	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xe1eda8…
04-30 08:25:38	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xd8954a…
04-30 08:25:20	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x44a2d7…
04-30 08:21:52	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x4621e5…
04-30 08:11:18	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x36e26a…
04-30 08:05:32	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x7f487d…
04-30 08:05:28	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x33c0a5…
04-30 08:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0d7c1f…
04-30 07:55:40	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x9c5c14…
04-30 07:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa72dac…
04-30 07:52:44	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x57e6c7…
04-30 07:50:26	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x4a38a3…
04-30 07:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x46fa81…
04-30 07:38:24	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xd1dc82…
04-30 07:36:56	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xc3c7dc…
04-30 07:31:14	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x31397c…
04-30 07:25:38	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x71ac8f…
04-27 13:12:00	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xf8f77c…
04-27 13:11:20	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xeb7bb6…
04-27 13:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x7f8f0e…
04-27 13:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x3e1202…
04-27 13:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xc59fd0…
04-27 13:00:08	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x6364c5…
04-27 12:56:50	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0xa05305…
04-27 12:54:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xa745b0…
04-27 12:37:42	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x7c923c…
04-27 12:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x6c7559…
04-27 12:11:12	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x582fa9…
04-27 12:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xe18484…
04-27 12:01:10	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x9ac0ef…
04-27 11:42:06	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x4ef45f…
04-27 11:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xeb396c…
04-27 11:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x57fff1…
04-27 11:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x9c6b76…
04-27 11:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xe1dded…
04-27 10:45:06	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xda183a…
04-27 10:32:58	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x21427c…
04-27 10:32:26	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x8e5652…