Rectangular-Gingerbread — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.39K

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

57.8%

Resolved

2,640

Trades

6,745

lifetime

Volume

$27.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 12:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 187 days

Categories

Other

54% 31% -$1,122

Crypto

40% 51% -$1,070

Politics

4% 15% -$173

Sports

3% 15% -$27

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	+1,222	$2	0¢	$5	+$3	10-29 04:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?	Yes	+1,467	$11	0¢	$2	-$9	10-23 01:59
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	+500	$1	0¢	$1	+$0	10-30 12:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	12	$528	27,000	10,000	+17,000	No	+$52	07-07 01:32
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 total 5pt5	14	$312	621	621	+0	Under	+$135	07-07 01:22
bitcoin up or down january 20 6pm et	14	$309	200	200	+0	Down	+$51	01-20 23:59
spx up or down on january 28 2026	2	$308	200	200	+0	Down	+$92	01-28 21:06
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 total 3pt5	3	$288	313	313	+0	Over	+$207	07-06 01:53
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 2pt5	2	$283	322	322	+0	Under	+$141	07-09 21:32
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	35	$279	42,000	32,000	+10,000	No	-$23	02-20 01:41
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 total 4pt5	2	$276	400	400	+0	Over	+$148	07-07 00:48
dota2 ts8 liquid 2026 08 21	13	$269	1,000	800	+200	Team Spirit	-$29	08-22 04:19
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 3pt5	11	$245	452	452	+0	Over	+$8	07-07 17:32
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	11	$243	972	972	+0	No	+$49	07-31 05:48
ethereum up or down january 20 7pm et	15	$215	400	400	+0	Up	-$135	01-21 00:39
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	23	$210	1,220	1,220	+0	Yes	-$28	03-09 22:42
spx up or down on february 20 2026	6	$202	200	200	+0	Up	+$2	02-20 05:55
wnba ind por 2026 07 31 total 183pt5	4	$195	125	125	+0	Over	+$12	08-01 02:34
wnba ind por 2026 07 31 total 189pt5	8	$189	112	112	+0	Over	+$12	08-01 03:26
will bitcoin reach 75k in august 2026	3	$176	370	370	+0	Yes	+$168	08-20 14:10
will xauusd reach 4350 by august 3 2026	3	$175	167	167	+0	Yes	+$158	08-07 12:33
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 3pt5	8	$174	441	222	+219	Under	-$7	07-14 20:43
fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 total 2pt5	6	$160	889	0	+889	Under	-$160	07-06 20:27
bitcoin up or down january 20 9pm et	7	$157	220	220	+0	Up	+$5	01-21 02:43
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 3pt5	2	$155	470	470	+0	Under	+$101	07-09 21:32
wnba ind por 2026 07 31 total 180pt5	3	$147	100	100	+0	Over	+$13	08-01 02:28
bitcoin up or down january 20 5pm et	6	$137	100	100	+0	Down	+$63	01-20 22:57
will xauusd reach 4650 by august 17 2026	10	$132	734	455	+279	No	+$113	08-21 20:27
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 4pt5	9	$130	414	414	+0	Over	+$15	07-07 17:51
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	2	$124	200	200	+0	open	—	07-29 19:25
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 September 21-27?	5	$124	3,934	0	+3,934	No	-$124	09-23 14:14
wnba tor gsv 2026 08 02 total 167pt5	2	$112	67	67	+0	Over	+$22	08-03 02:37
ethereum up or down january 20 6pm et	4	$103	60	60	+0	Down	+$16	01-20 23:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 12:06:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x9c34f4…
10-30 11:56:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x7789e9…
10-30 11:56:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x95b641…
10-30 11:49:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xffc467…
10-30 11:48:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x42f777…
10-30 11:48:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0x916a93…
10-30 11:47:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0xd16539…
10-30 11:44:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x54e0f0…
10-30 11:42:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xbaa8c9…
10-30 11:41:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xb41e25…
10-30 11:41:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x6899c6…
10-30 11:40:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x4023a0…
10-30 11:39:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x977d9b…
10-30 11:39:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x02e6f9…
10-30 11:38:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x6cb0b2…
10-30 11:37:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x326344…
10-30 11:37:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x1f0190…
10-30 11:36:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x34d83d…
10-30 11:16:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xfae2f2…
10-30 10:35:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0xb111d7…
10-30 10:32:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe53292…
10-30 09:51:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x941681…
10-30 09:51:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xe87f1f…
10-30 09:50:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x98d2d5…
10-30 09:45:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	39	0¢	$0	0xf61f12…
10-30 09:44:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0xa7113e…
10-30 09:44:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x662a52…
10-30 09:43:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x321474…
10-30 09:42:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x99feb2…
10-30 09:41:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	36	0¢	$0	0xb32947…
10-30 09:40:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xb6e65d…
10-29 21:39:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4526e5…
10-29 17:47:14	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc5ffd2…
10-29 04:25:25	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	778	0¢	$4	0x712024…
10-26 23:48:20	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	0¢	$0	0xf24f29…
10-26 22:29:42	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x58133a…
10-26 22:29:00	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf4ec19…
10-26 21:40:15	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x059745…
10-26 17:36:17	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x12e71c…
10-26 13:54:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$6	0xc46e57…
10-25 15:40:05	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	9,000	0¢	$9	0x8a1ef7…
10-23 01:59:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	803	0¢	$4	0x3f49dd…
10-22 16:46:20	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$4	0xd9bd35…
10-22 10:02:08	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x8113c3…
10-22 10:02:08	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x208bfc…
10-22 10:02:06	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x6d1fb1…
10-22 00:50:24	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe435b7…
10-21 18:12:27	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 October 19-25?	Yes	SELL	350	4¢	$13	0xe6e1b3…
10-21 06:01:30	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	139	1¢	$1	0x9217bd…
10-21 05:41:47	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	531	1¢	$3	0x95a0c7…
10-21 04:12:48	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	350	2¢	$8	0xde3d8b…
10-17 03:30:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	664	1¢	$7	0x37dfee…
10-17 03:30:26	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 12-18?	Yes	SELL	1,050	0¢	$5	0xa41607…
10-15 12:12:08	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 12-18?	Yes	BUY	1,050	1¢	$16	0xcc7832…
10-02 16:17:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,220	1¢	$12	0xf756d8…
10-02 15:38:59	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	780	1¢	$8	0x2afd18…
10-02 14:44:36	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	228	2¢	$5	0xca1482…
10-02 14:43:32	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	249	2¢	$5	0x0a904e…
10-02 14:40:26	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xad2334…
10-02 14:02:36	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xdf70f5…
10-02 13:42:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	445	2¢	$9	0xd629e0…
10-02 12:53:42	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	2¢	$1	0x5f00e1…
10-02 05:02:20	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	425	5¢	$22	0x21a724…
10-02 03:36:15	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	670	4¢	$24	0x7f4279…
10-01 11:53:32	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	4¢	$6	0x9abecd…
10-01 09:25:48	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x84b582…
09-30 01:46:39	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $76 in September?	Yes	BUY	651	0¢	$1	0x798340…
09-28 00:33:27	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	144	0¢	$1	0xb8b880…
09-28 00:08:53	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	103	0¢	$0	0xd01b24…
09-27 22:47:26	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	173	0¢	$1	0xee7ac9…
09-27 20:19:20	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	414	0¢	$2	0x5f08cf…
09-27 19:30:59	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x2c7315…
09-27 17:51:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	142	0¢	$1	0xd4987d…
09-27 11:08:06	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x3f3e72…
09-27 10:17:14	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x9bf032…
09-26 14:52:42	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$6	0x752d23…
09-26 11:38:50	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe04cb4…
09-26 11:37:24	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $76 in September?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1b2cdf…
09-26 04:17:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	Yes	BUY	4,898	0¢	$24	0xf79b39…
09-26 04:16:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	Yes	BUY	5,000	1¢	$30	0xb46184…
09-26 00:10:35	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $76 in September?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x143313…
09-25 21:20:42	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in September?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x6e8c38…
09-25 14:44:06	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	978	1¢	$9	0x1294a1…
09-25 11:02:39	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $76 in September?	Yes	BUY	2,000	1¢	$18	0x50c606…
09-25 05:23:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	Yes	BUY	102	0¢	$1	0x0575c5…
09-25 00:22:21	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0x306c41…
09-25 00:22:20	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$11	0x03e374…
09-25 00:21:53	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$13	0xd5266a…
09-24 16:02:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	Yes	BUY	995	1¢	$6	0x12e92a…
09-24 13:58:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbb5505…
09-24 09:38:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	Yes	BUY	36	1¢	$0	0x9bd38c…
09-23 20:33:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	Yes	BUY	44	1¢	$0	0xb3deae…
09-23 19:58:05	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	750	1¢	$9	0xa40002…
09-23 17:01:25	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$3	0xb79093…
09-23 14:14:46	Will Ethereum reach $3,300 September 21-27?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x2ceb3b…
09-23 10:51:16	Will Ethereum reach $3,300 September 21-27?	Yes	BUY	1,890	2¢	$34	0xf1fd9c…
09-23 10:33:14	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $76 in September?	Yes	BUY	580	5¢	$26	0x3d4cde…
09-23 08:07:14	Will Ethereum reach $3,300 September 21-27?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x4817ed…
09-23 08:07:13	Will Ethereum reach $3,300 September 21-27?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x16a0c3…
09-23 07:53:41	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $76 in September?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xff963a…