Sweet-Writer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.85K

Unrealized P&L

+$180

Hit rate

75.0%

Resolved

320

Trades

2,725

lifetime

Volume

$504.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$185

Open exposure

$1.16K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 15:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 132 days

Categories

Other

43% 71% +$22,383

Politics

42% 72% -$14,051

Crypto

7% 49% -$7,773

Tech

7% 68% +$1,254

Sports

0% 100% +$35

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 72 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+904	$600	99¢	$899	+$299	10-25 09:33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-1,200	-$180	18¢	$-210	-$30	09-12 08:32
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+4,926	$138	1¢	$49	-$89	09-11 21:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	209	$68.4K	102,003	110,860	-8,857	Yes	+$18,478	01-31 05:04
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	26	$19.2K	20,618	25,218	-4,600	Yes	-$15,314	02-28 07:07
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	10	$18.9K	10,258	10,258	+0	No	+$990	02-27 10:08
another us government shutdown by february 14	23	$15.1K	7,946	9,208	-1,262	No	+$1,542	02-14 05:30
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	4	$11.4K	6,118	6,118	+0	No	+$590	02-22 10:23
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	10	$11.2K	6,080	6,080	+0	No	+$309	02-24 19:27
will megaeth perform an airdrop by march 15	22	$10.3K	10,731	7,881	+2,850	No	-$367	02-10 00:51
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	19	$9.0K	4,910	4,910	+0	No	+$646	02-24 17:13
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more	80	$8.7K	16,660	11,593	+5,066	No	-$961	02-13 16:54
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	25	$8.3K	4,674	4,674	+0	No	-$24	02-01 08:34
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	25	$7.6K	7,691	2,614	+5,077	Yes	+$1,861	08-12 22:05
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	5	$7.2K	3,350	4,250	-900	No	+$171	02-25 17:53
will company b be accused of insider trading	26	$7.1K	4,556	4,691	-135	No	+$728	02-26 13:41
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	14	$6.9K	9,140	9,140	+0	Yes	-$6,818	02-28 07:07
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	29	$6.9K	5,753	4,148	+1,606	No	+$2,077	02-19 04:15
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	32	$6.8K	4,517	4,617	-100	No	+$929	03-16 08:40
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	95	$6.7K	4,343	4,343	+0	Yes	+$896	02-16 20:23
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	13	$6.2K	3,614	3,422	+191	No	+$719	01-16 08:50
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	12	$6.0K	3,549	3,549	+0	No	+$351	01-21 20:06
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	11	$5.5K	3,745	3,745	+0	No	+$1,699	01-16 19:59
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?	10	$5.4K	3,800	3,262	+538	No	+$1,033	02-12 02:43
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	8	$5.1K	2,620	2,620	+0	No	+$49	02-19 19:59
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	19	$5.0K	3,434	3,434	+0	No	+$1,412	01-16 09:54
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	6	$4.9K	3,158	3,158	+0	No	+$56	09-10 11:11
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	43	$4.8K	6,831	2,449	+4,383	No	-$2,067	08-27 13:45
will world liberty financial be accused of insider trading	5	$4.8K	2,797	2,797	+0	No	+$268	02-23 21:08
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	30	$4.5K	3,883	2,813	+1,070	No	+$499	04-01 20:48
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	7	$4.5K	2,430	2,430	+0	No	+$144	02-19 20:06
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	2	$4.2K	7,699	0	+7,699	No	+$3,481	01-14 23:47
Iran leadership change by April 30?	12	$4.1K	3,520	2,790	+730	No	+$207	04-26 14:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:23:28	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	75¢	$108	0x3e8cd2…
10-28 16:51:55	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	76¢	$228	0xc95b9a…
10-25 09:33:32	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	904	66¢	$600	0x999978…
10-25 09:33:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	543	69¢	$373	0x28ba36…
10-25 09:33:09	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	229	79¢	$180	0x072395…
10-25 09:32:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	685	73¢	$500	0x388904…
09-16 17:57:58	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x431ab4…
09-14 19:26:34	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	66¢	$191	0x47dd36…
09-14 11:45:30	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	422	71¢	$300	0x0dd3f0…
09-12 20:45:34	GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	162	37¢	$60	0x4ba8ed…
09-12 20:45:18	GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	678	40¢	$271	0xd992a2…
09-12 08:32:21	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	120	74¢	$89	0xc336ba…
09-12 08:32:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,200	15¢	$180	0x2a23c6…
09-12 08:32:09	Will Grok 5 be released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	304	87¢	$264	0x9c3916…
09-11 21:18:12	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x4ffd3f…
09-11 21:18:12	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	4¢	$1	0x226aaa…
09-11 21:18:10	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	4¢	$2	0x6a641c…
09-11 21:18:10	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x51dda9…
09-10 11:11:57	LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3,158	78¢	$2,463	0x41bc48…
09-09 13:43:42	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	BUY	258	78¢	$201	0xb0c54d…
09-09 12:44:58	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	BUY	800	75¢	$600	0xc252bf…
09-09 12:44:03	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	BUY	1,000	77¢	$770	0x916c6e…
09-09 12:43:09	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,500	1¢	$17	0x45e1cd…
09-09 12:43:04	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	BUY	700	76¢	$532	0x304880…
09-09 12:41:33	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$25	0x4b3299…
09-09 12:41:25	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	No	BUY	500	3¢	$14	0x835d94…
09-08 21:41:30	GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,356	26¢	$359	0x378d85…
09-08 19:52:36	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x95e1b6…
09-08 19:52:30	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,300	5¢	$67	0xf5094c…
09-08 18:41:00	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0xcd0946…
09-08 18:41:00	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xb2e42f…
09-08 18:41:00	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x56d38c…
09-08 18:41:00	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	4¢	$4	0x0fe20f…
09-07 13:35:07	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	420	5¢	$23	0xe2d4ea…
09-07 13:31:49	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf2f684…
09-07 13:31:42	Will Khamzat Chimaev fight Sean Strickland next?	No	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0xc4bb89…
09-07 07:08:28	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,500	13¢	$320	0xb20648…
09-05 03:39:37	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	2¢	$2	0x327a53…
09-05 03:39:36	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	2¢	$1	0x5c2c27…
09-05 03:39:34	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x5d3c25…
09-05 03:39:33	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	2¢	$2	0x4e51c2…
09-05 03:23:48	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xd2ad7a…
09-05 03:23:48	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x2f654f…
09-05 03:13:39	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xc49ced…
09-05 03:12:55	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x2df6fe…
09-05 02:51:46	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xbc0268…
09-05 02:51:46	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x086470…
09-05 02:46:00	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0xfb4a6f…
09-05 02:45:57	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x58e7a0…
09-05 02:45:57	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x47701d…
09-05 00:05:54	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0xa89d1a…
09-05 00:05:46	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x3ac77e…
09-05 00:05:45	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	425	4¢	$17	0xd1bdef…
09-05 00:05:45	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x111909…
09-05 00:05:45	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	4¢	$3	0x017efb…
09-04 14:42:07	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	768	4¢	$30	0xfd12a7…
09-04 14:41:03	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	444	27¢	$122	0x14ce7f…
09-03 08:13:01	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	377	90¢	$340	0x21eef1…
09-01 18:29:04	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x03de95…
09-01 17:32:01	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0xd6c9ac…
09-01 17:29:18	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	SELL	500	4¢	$20	0xc4d9c4…
09-01 17:14:03	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0x45905a…
09-01 17:04:42	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	88¢	$528	0x41cf90…
08-27 13:45:37	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	266	43¢	$114	0x0efb09…
08-27 11:17:46	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	348	10¢	$35	0xa62ccf…
08-27 09:44:21	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0xde1a8e…
08-27 09:05:52	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x4e17d6…
08-27 08:53:36	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	43¢	$82	0xbad9f4…
08-27 08:26:30	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0x852b3d…
08-26 21:36:58	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	8¢	$20	0x692c7a…
08-26 21:36:10	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	7¢	$2	0xad03f4…
08-26 18:36:19	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0x14615f…
08-26 18:32:54	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xde5df6…
08-26 18:27:57	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	399	81¢	$323	0x6ef676…
08-26 18:26:07	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x97a0b1…
08-26 18:24:25	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	61¢	$305	0x4b5644…
08-26 17:51:39	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	65¢	$56	0xc85062…
08-26 17:28:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	444	9¢	$40	0x486764…
08-26 17:28:24	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	258	10¢	$25	0x3f8f4b…
08-26 16:39:21	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	525	62¢	$327	0x0f69c0…
08-26 16:36:51	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	168	60¢	$100	0x3baa8f…
08-26 16:33:58	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0xd6f00f…
08-26 16:33:58	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x948abb…
08-26 16:33:31	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	No	SELL	1,398	18¢	$248	0xc4da87…
08-26 16:31:24	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	343	58¢	$200	0xb5f5f3…
08-26 16:29:39	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	12¢	$186	0xb81670…
08-26 16:28:12	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	383	47¢	$179	0xf0cd5f…
08-26 15:38:46	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf962b4…
08-26 15:18:24	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	279	38¢	$106	0x68a148…
08-26 15:14:03	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	58¢	$16	0x5cd72d…
08-26 15:13:03	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0xbcdbdb…
08-26 15:11:58	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	58¢	$174	0x779dbc…
08-26 15:10:46	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	172	58¢	$100	0xdf6f20…
08-26 13:34:27	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	55¢	$62	0x500f0b…
08-26 13:33:07	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x19e30d…
08-26 13:22:40	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	45¢	$77	0x2889b0…
08-26 13:17:30	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	511	97¢	$497	0x97aeec…
08-26 12:37:52	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	270	50¢	$135	0x423b5e…
08-25 10:19:51	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	31	30¢	$9	0x6477a1…
08-25 10:19:37	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	1,147	52¢	$598	0x6d94d3…