Ill-Informed-Kielbasa — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$33

Unrealized P&L

-$19

Hit rate

50.0%

Resolved

Trades

176

lifetime

Volume

$6.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$31

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 07-23 13:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

76% — —

Other

17% — —

Crypto

5% — —

Sports

2% 50% +$33

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+116	$50	26¢	$31	$-19	07-08 14:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	9	$1.3K	3,537	3,537	+0	open	—	01-14 23:40
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	2	$664	466	466	+0	open	—	07-03 11:40
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	6	$272	349	349	+0	open	—	01-14 21:03
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$265	1,057	502	+556	open	—	02-27 16:44
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$252	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-27 16:44
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	2	$200	349	0	+349	open	—	04-27 16:58
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$179	396	396	+0	open	—	02-18 16:59
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	2	$173	192	192	+0	open	—	02-27 14:18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	2	$155	500	500	+0	open	—	05-20 14:58
will the bank of israel make no change to the bank of israel interest rate after the march decision	2	$150	265	0	+265	open	—	03-04 10:04
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	2	$134	172	172	+0	open	—	06-08 15:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	3	$133	168	49	+119	open	—	05-23 17:53
iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	2	$128	133	133	+0	open	—	07-23 13:29
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	3	$112	288	288	+0	open	—	03-14 07:10
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$109	417	417	+0	open	—	05-24 07:27
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	1	$100	311	0	+311	open	—	03-08 17:19
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	1	$100	222	0	+222	open	—	07-14 10:48
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	1	$100	140	0	+140	open	—	06-30 09:23
ucl slp fcb1 2026 01 21 fcb1	1	$100	139	0	+139	open	—	01-21 19:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	3	$79	111	111	+0	open	—	03-03 17:02
fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 goals lionel messi gte2	2	$65	56	56	+0	open	—	06-22 19:17
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	2	$64	82	82	+0	open	—	04-17 18:47
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	1	$62	0	63	-63	open	—	07-02 08:34
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	4	$61	221	221	+0	open	—	01-31 13:39
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	1	$50	120	0	+120	open	—	06-29 14:37
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 rma1	1	$50	139	0	+139	open	—	04-07 07:10
Fed rate hike in 2026?	1	$50	116	0	+116	open	—	07-08 14:27
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals kylian mbappe gte1	2	$50	95	0	+95	open	—	07-09 16:15
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	1	$50	75	0	+75	open	—	07-09 18:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$50	74	0	+74	open	—	05-10 12:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 13:29:25	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	Yes	SELL	133	21¢	$28	0x312c04…
07-22 13:49:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	Yes	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x88fcc8…
07-22 11:29:39	iran full airspace closure by july 27	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xbd3bf8…
07-14 10:48:01	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x22f409…
07-09 21:35:32	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x3a3ce9…
07-09 18:02:02	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x7193be…
07-09 16:17:26	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals ayoub el kaabi gte1	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x152d2a…
07-09 16:15:08	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	75	53¢	$40	0x0988a0…
07-09 16:01:11	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x54f513…
07-08 15:07:20	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x7c5299…
07-08 14:27:08	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0xe1e504…
07-07 16:01:23	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xf4fca4…
07-04 11:08:22	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 btts	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xc265e2…
07-03 11:43:43	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 goals lautaro martinez gte1	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x5d1b96…
07-03 11:43:28	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x988368…
07-03 11:40:10	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	466	100¢	$464	0x49efd5…
07-02 08:34:17	Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	No	SELL	63	98¢	$62	0x572b0d…
07-01 18:59:11	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x6fab1f…
07-01 18:36:44	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 btts	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x8a3215…
06-30 17:20:22	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	SELL	31	28¢	$9	0x823478…
06-30 11:48:47	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	31	63¢	$20	0x2466c3…
06-30 09:27:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xc5f3c1…
06-30 09:23:55	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	140	71¢	$100	0x020370…
06-30 08:43:07	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 goals nicolas pepe gte1	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xb8bc46…
06-29 20:18:05	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xe0ec4b…
06-29 18:20:07	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 goals vinicius junior gte1	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x1cb9be…
06-29 14:37:37	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0xa9d842…
06-28 12:49:44	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	466	43¢	$200	0xcb9f01…
06-28 08:02:08	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 goals jonathan david gte1	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x8e3e1b…
06-28 07:58:10	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Brazil	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x36ce71…
06-27 14:59:38	fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 goals giovani lo celso gte1	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x1d7fbf…
06-27 14:57:28	fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	110	31¢	$34	0xc99e1b…
06-27 13:05:44	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 goals harry kane gte2	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x5ef0e9…
06-23 14:41:53	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	No	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x2442d6…
06-23 09:34:23	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 goals harry kane gte2	Yes	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0xd61f23…
06-22 19:22:44	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 first corner	Iraq	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x393395…
06-22 19:20:22	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 goals kylian mbappe gte2	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x818385…
06-22 19:17:41	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	SELL	56	100¢	$55	0xab9113…
06-22 16:42:07	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xe83194…
06-22 16:40:17	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 spread home 1pt5	Argentina	BUY	32	41¢	$13	0x7b56f9…
06-20 19:36:28	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0x750b58…
06-20 19:36:02	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 spread home 2pt5	Germany	SELL	65	22¢	$14	0xe79fff…
06-20 19:35:08	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 spread home 2pt5	Germany	BUY	65	23¢	$15	0xca8718…
06-19 15:21:44	fifwc tur par 2026 06 19 spread home 1pt5	Türkiye	BUY	125	24¢	$30	0xcf6d0d…
06-18 15:57:35	fifwc cze rsa 2026 06 18 goals patrik schick gte1	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x8e77e9…
06-17 09:35:10	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 goals harry kane gte1	Yes	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x7c8e54…
06-17 09:33:10	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x966022…
06-16 09:52:39	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	France	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xd3cd80…
06-14 17:13:09	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 first half total 2pt5	Over	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x5d3756…
06-14 17:10:54	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 5pt5	Germany	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x118337…
06-08 15:14:48	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	172	14¢	$24	0xe3c60f…
06-07 19:33:40	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	172	64¢	$110	0x608e67…
06-03 13:28:20	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x37aaba…
05-28 11:59:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xeeb999…
05-24 07:27:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	417	2¢	$9	0x6c5daf…
05-23 17:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x1774db…
05-23 17:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x34edad…
05-23 17:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	SELL	49	17¢	$8	0xd751d9…
05-23 17:49:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x04785b…
05-23 17:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xb03327…
05-20 14:59:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	417	24¢	$100	0x29d79a…
05-20 14:58:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	500	11¢	$55	0xf0835c…
05-20 14:15:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0xd386e7…
05-10 12:36:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xa461ed…
05-09 16:29:20	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x91db14…
04-30 09:53:04	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x4569c9…
04-28 10:06:00	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xb9dcdf…
04-27 16:58:52	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	215	46¢	$100	0x8afdc8…
04-17 18:48:24	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0x9cb04b…
04-17 18:47:26	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	SELL	82	17¢	$14	0x3baa63…
04-12 13:19:31	Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	484	2¢	$10	0xe9f88c…
04-08 06:51:49	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 liv1	Yes	SELL	44	22¢	$10	0xb691d0…
04-07 14:55:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x475ff8…
04-07 07:11:55	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xed742c…
04-07 07:11:43	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 liv1	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x7239f2…
04-07 07:10:59	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 rma1	Yes	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0x6628b8…
04-07 07:10:25	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	Yes	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x2fef5f…
04-01 12:20:41	btc updown 5m 1775046000	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x348bf3…
03-29 16:11:36	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xdcf64a…
03-26 09:05:57	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	BUY	69	14¢	$10	0x8352a8…
03-23 16:00:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	SELL	26	13¢	$3	0x613320…
03-17 09:57:51	will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x5ab69d…
03-14 07:10:19	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	Yes	SELL	288	9¢	$27	0xe21be0…
03-11 16:47:29	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	Yes	BUY	103	34¢	$35	0xc8b5f6…
03-09 19:26:39	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	Yes	BUY	185	27¢	$50	0xc5d3ab…
03-08 17:19:55	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	311	32¢	$100	0x8f27bc…
03-06 17:09:29	btc updown 5m 1772817000	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xeebb68…
03-06 17:06:57	btc updown 5m 1772816700	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xdad0e0…
03-06 16:59:41	btc updown 5m 1772816400	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8e3e94…
03-06 16:57:15	btc updown 5m 1772816100	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x7ce457…
03-04 15:42:51	btc updown 5m 1772638800	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xa182c4…
03-04 15:42:31	btc updown 5m 1772638800	Up	SELL	14	64¢	$9	0xef60d9…
03-04 15:42:17	btc updown 5m 1772638800	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x7e27df…
03-04 15:28:41	btc updown 5m 1772638200	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc5df6b…
03-04 15:24:49	btc updown 5m 1772637900	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe60f92…
03-04 15:18:57	btc updown 5m 1772637600	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x888f1b…
03-04 14:22:27	btc updown 5m 1772634000	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x9a4334…
03-04 10:04:21	will the bank of israel make no change to the bank of israel interest rate after the march decision	Yes	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x7906ca…
03-03 17:02:21	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	SELL	111	35¢	$39	0x6fd222…
03-03 16:40:35	btc updown 5m 1772556000	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xecc701…