Aromatic-Underestimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$84

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.6%

Resolved

Trades

529

lifetime

Volume

$53.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$101

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 07-02 16:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

74% 50% +$19

Other

25% 0% $-105

Crypto

2% 100% +$1

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	91	$17.2K	24,004	27,695	-3,690	open	—	05-30 12:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	23	$4.2K	3,200	3,400	-200	open	—	06-22 10:42
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	15	$3.4K	2,984	2,903	+81	open	—	05-23 17:04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	6	$2.1K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	05-31 15:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	8	$1.8K	2,600	3,300	-700	open	—	05-26 14:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	7	$1.6K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	05-18 15:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	4	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-22 09:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	9	$1.5K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	07-02 16:59
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	3	$1.4K	900	900	+0	open	—	06-11 12:58
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	9	$1.3K	1,600	1,000	+600	open	—	06-17 22:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$1.3K	900	900	+0	open	—	06-09 13:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	6	$1.3K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	05-22 13:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	8	$1.3K	833	833	+0	open	—	06-06 04:19
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-21 02:20
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	7	$1.2K	832	832	+0	open	—	05-14 15:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$1.1K	2,601	2,601	+0	open	—	05-24 14:56
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	8	$856	600	600	+0	open	—	05-20 14:28
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	9	$842	900	1,500	-600	open	—	05-25 22:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	5	$815	583	583	+0	open	—	05-16 15:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$786	460	460	+0	open	—	05-10 12:31
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$736	500	500	+0	open	—	05-11 15:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	11	$686	8,581	8,581	+0	open	—	05-16 15:33
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	8	$624	1,700	1,700	+0	open	—	06-21 09:58
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	6	$504	3,800	3,800	+0	open	—	05-12 20:52
starmer out by june 22 2026	7	$500	1,027	257	+770	open	—	06-21 12:32
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	4	$443	550	50	+500	open	—	05-25 21:38
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$368	200	200	+0	open	—	06-21 03:27
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	9	$354	400	400	+0	open	—	05-24 14:03
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	4	$316	200	200	+0	open	—	06-22 14:42
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	6	$261	189	300	-111	open	—	05-23 17:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 16:59:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	400	72¢	$288	0x69d316…
07-02 14:27:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	371	70¢	$259	0xb0dead…
07-02 14:27:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$21	0x765031…
06-30 16:43:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	200	34¢	$68	0x8bb982…
06-30 14:11:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x0a4374…
06-23 15:13:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	400	46¢	$184	0x87d63c…
06-23 14:55:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	400	46¢	$184	0x64f6f5…
06-22 16:33:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	400	48¢	$192	0xa8c05e…
06-22 14:42:01	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	82	79¢	$65	0x86f312…
06-22 14:37:53	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	80	79¢	$63	0xb2b57a…
06-22 14:31:58	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	38	79¢	$30	0x7c88cd…
06-22 14:17:34	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x0d97a3…
06-22 13:40:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	400	52¢	$208	0x4e8d99…
06-22 10:42:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0x5c7371…
06-22 04:25:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	119	5¢	$6	0x548e90…
06-22 04:23:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xfb8b28…
06-22 04:23:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x27d395…
06-22 04:23:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x3f6202…
06-22 04:23:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x7b7132…
06-22 04:23:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x8fac7b…
06-22 04:18:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x82ee69…
06-22 04:09:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0x174766…
06-22 03:53:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x37a5ee…
06-21 12:32:11	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	257	39¢	$100	0x2e4d52…
06-21 12:11:46	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	223	11¢	$25	0xb0d080…
06-21 11:30:16	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0xc86d64…
06-21 11:29:31	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	45	11¢	$5	0x5dd5e5…
06-21 10:23:19	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0x50970e…
06-21 10:16:25	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x37e2c8…
06-21 10:15:52	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x2fb0d1…
06-21 10:08:44	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	91	11¢	$10	0xec416b…
06-21 10:06:25	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0xfb2087…
06-21 10:03:47	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	32	11¢	$4	0x535506…
06-21 09:58:53	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0xfe16f3…
06-21 09:58:41	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x55302c…
06-21 09:58:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	10¢	$150	0xd47a04…
06-21 09:53:41	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	82	11¢	$9	0xdc94df…
06-21 09:47:49	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x611b9e…
06-21 09:45:50	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	242	11¢	$27	0x61d4b4…
06-21 09:15:10	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	23	11¢	$3	0xc41d9e…
06-21 09:14:37	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	12	11¢	$1	0xa37b92…
06-21 09:14:37	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	140	11¢	$15	0x3e0f7c…
06-21 09:13:05	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	268	11¢	$29	0x18a162…
06-21 09:12:02	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	697	11¢	$77	0xc1312d…
06-21 09:11:44	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	35	11¢	$4	0x73687f…
06-21 09:10:20	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	678	10¢	$68	0x23caf2…
06-21 09:05:50	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0xd00016…
06-21 08:59:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0xd9d03a…
06-21 08:59:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	600	10¢	$60	0x78a276…
06-21 08:59:20	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	192	10¢	$19	0x2b11f4…
06-21 05:15:07	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	1,000	39¢	$390	0x9e21b5…
06-21 03:27:53	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x9a90ac…
06-21 03:27:46	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x723454…
06-21 03:13:29	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xf593e2…
06-21 03:09:50	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xf9cf14…
06-21 03:09:50	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xde37af…
06-21 03:09:16	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x7ead21…
06-21 03:08:55	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xab97ae…
06-21 03:04:08	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x20d842…
06-21 02:54:56	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0bcbe4…
06-21 02:20:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x32d234…
06-21 02:20:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	62¢	$620	0x9aecea…
06-20 16:18:53	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	63¢	$630	0xb73d91…
06-20 14:12:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x575cce…
06-20 00:08:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	700	91¢	$637	0x7042bc…
06-19 19:51:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	700	90¢	$630	0x0971d2…
06-17 22:16:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0xf8f334…
06-17 15:20:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	800	79¢	$628	0x71c9a0…
06-17 15:20:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0xdb6fa5…
06-17 15:18:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	800	79¢	$632	0x1a74b9…
06-17 14:50:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x0ae4a9…
06-17 14:50:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x62da90…
06-17 14:50:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x7adabc…
06-17 14:49:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	188	35¢	$66	0x79b413…
06-16 15:27:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	800	56¢	$448	0x78ba87…
06-16 14:50:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	800	57¢	$456	0xb966a0…
06-15 15:22:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	23¢	$46	0x5601dd…
06-15 15:06:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	600	50¢	$300	0xd38baa…
06-14 15:01:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x48c185…
06-14 13:52:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x7d15be…
06-14 11:17:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	21¢	$42	0x1099ce…
06-14 10:34:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0xe72a89…
06-12 09:21:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	900	78¢	$702	0xa6c68b…
06-12 09:19:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	900	79¢	$711	0x525076…
06-12 09:08:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$7	0xab3ef9…
06-12 07:21:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	85	4¢	$3	0xd678f7…
06-12 07:21:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x26467e…
06-12 07:21:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	108	4¢	$4	0x6f3f86…
06-11 12:58:25	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	900	79¢	$711	0x6d559f…
06-11 12:26:00	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	700	80¢	$560	0xbe990a…
06-11 12:25:03	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x13a35b…
06-09 13:17:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	700	91¢	$637	0x2aaaef…
06-09 13:15:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	700	92¢	$644	0xccd58b…
06-07 16:41:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	14¢	$28	0xcb1663…
06-07 16:13:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	14¢	$13	0x9071e6…
06-07 16:11:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x5dfc74…
06-07 16:11:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	14¢	$13	0xa06c78…
06-06 09:44:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x6cb025…
06-06 09:42:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	43	11¢	$5	0x77041a…
06-06 09:37:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	157	11¢	$17	0xf872a5…