Fond-Treaty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$97

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.7%

Resolved

Trades

355

lifetime

Volume

$101.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$287

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 06-10 12:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

85% 100% +$42

Other

15% — —

Sports

1% 50% +$55

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	31	$39.8K	84,726	43,486	+41,239	open	—	04-01 21:11
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	6	$25.2K	19,992	19,992	+0	open	—	03-17 23:55
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	167	$10.6K	52,944	48,294	+4,650	open	—	05-21 12:39
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	8	$10.0K	8,934	8,934	+0	open	—	03-31 23:56
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	2	$1.6K	8,333	8,333	+0	open	—	03-23 13:09
will the us conduct a cyberattack on iran by march 31	5	$1.4K	2,361	2,361	+0	open	—	03-10 16:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$1.3K	8,605	0	+8,605	open	—	02-28 00:39
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	4	$950	10,381	17,686	-7,305	open	—	02-28 01:58
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	3	$804	3,608	3,608	+0	open	—	03-08 23:02
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	4	$798	1,474	1,474	+0	open	—	03-18 13:11
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	3	$745	1,450	1,450	+0	open	—	03-11 16:10
will israel or the us target fordow nuclear facility	3	$703	1,614	1,614	+0	open	—	03-18 21:30
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	8	$623	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-11 18:29
us forces enter iran by march 7	3	$570	5,848	5,848	+0	open	—	03-06 00:46
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	3	$529	765	345	+420	open	—	03-22 08:44
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$467	3,800	3,800	+0	open	—	05-21 12:41
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$419	241	241	+0	open	—	03-10 15:53
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	4	$389	28,210	38,186	-9,977	open	—	02-27 04:50
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	2	$362	297	297	+0	Sean Strickland	+$226	05-10 04:46
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$350	200	200	+0	open	—	04-10 23:30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$312	2,600	2,600	+0	open	—	05-07 18:42
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	2	$302	2,216	2,216	+0	open	—	03-08 19:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$300	370	0	+370	open	—	05-21 12:41
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	4	$287	3,304	3,304	+0	open	—	03-08 19:30
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	2	$278	200	200	+0	open	—	04-11 18:30
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 10 2026	2	$212	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	04-10 23:37
military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	17	$204	4,938	0	+4,938	open	—	04-11 16:34
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	1	$200	1,176	0	+1,176	open	—	02-27 17:12
Thunder vs. Lakers	2	$171	900	0	+900	Thunder	$-171	05-12 03:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$162	145	145	+0	open	—	05-07 18:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 12:25:49	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,122	3¢	$90	0xff8b33…
06-10 12:25:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,250	1¢	$17	0x70d26d…
05-21 12:41:51	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3,800	4¢	$163	0x078279…
05-21 12:41:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	370	81¢	$300	0xe82702…
05-21 12:39:01	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20,000	4¢	$706	0x438bbe…
05-18 19:20:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	28,294	5¢	$1,520	0x6314f9…
05-12 03:22:26	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	300	19¢	$57	0x9dda47…
05-12 03:21:25	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	600	19¢	$114	0x1ac0c8…
05-10 04:46:47	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	297	99¢	$294	0x4d51d4…
05-10 04:40:16	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	297	23¢	$68	0xbe56f1…
05-07 18:43:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	145	43¢	$62	0x8b8cb4…
05-07 18:42:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,600	4¢	$104	0xeb02f8…
05-07 10:17:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,500	8¢	$200	0xa22e16…
05-07 10:17:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	9¢	$92	0xdb466f…
05-03 11:57:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	390	13¢	$51	0x395e55…
05-03 11:57:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x7beed1…
05-03 11:49:40	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,800	8¢	$304	0x7f64ed…
05-03 11:48:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,600	8¢	$208	0xe3b2ca…
05-03 11:45:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x50527f…
04-12 09:59:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10,563	19¢	$2,000	0x4c189c…
04-12 09:55:33	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	185	0¢	$1	0x23a605…
04-12 09:55:19	will 20 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	SELL	258	0¢	$0	0xcaa7c1…
04-12 09:55:11	will 30 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	SELL	116	0¢	$0	0x450ae3…
04-11 18:31:37	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	SELL	500	1¢	$7	0x58f244…
04-11 18:30:25	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	765	17¢	$130	0x523f95…
04-11 18:30:13	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0x491c95…
04-11 18:29:51	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,559	17¢	$265	0x018f63…
04-11 18:29:33	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	SELL	1,000	22¢	$223	0x3aec1b…
04-11 18:29:27	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	202	26¢	$53	0xc0173c…
04-11 18:28:49	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	500	17¢	$85	0x0963eb…
04-11 18:27:55	will 50 59 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	SELL	117	49¢	$58	0x4829ad…
04-11 16:34:43	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	3,117	3¢	$100	0xc2393f…
04-11 16:33:53	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	400	11¢	$44	0xb9b5fa…
04-11 16:33:47	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,108	4¢	$45	0x268ec8…
04-11 16:33:37	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	791	5¢	$41	0x77bf45…
04-11 11:30:05	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	185	1¢	$2	0xa79644…
04-11 06:50:13	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,084	22¢	$240	0x2393ff…
04-11 06:49:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	909	22¢	$200	0xea0a58…
04-11 06:49:01	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,136	22¢	$250	0xa2d209…
04-11 06:48:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,364	22¢	$300	0x2c51ef…
04-10 23:40:35	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x7a3cf2…
04-10 23:40:33	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0xdae92b…
04-10 23:40:33	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xc2a8f8…
04-10 23:40:33	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x7eb7a4…
04-10 23:40:33	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	39	9¢	$4	0x17bc41…
04-10 23:40:29	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	32	9¢	$3	0x68f075…
04-10 23:40:27	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0xe9863c…
04-10 23:40:27	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0x9a4e77…
04-10 23:40:27	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0x775b75…
04-10 23:40:25	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0xf6b3ea…
04-10 23:40:25	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0x18845d…
04-10 23:40:05	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xd08b8b…
04-10 23:40:03	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x972734…
04-10 23:39:59	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xeadd40…
04-10 23:39:59	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	151	9¢	$14	0x4563d5…
04-10 23:39:49	military action against iran ends by may 31 2026	No	BUY	1,100	5¢	$55	0x334dce…
04-10 23:37:17	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 10 2026	Yes	SELL	8,000	0¢	$12	0x9ae61f…
04-10 23:30:09	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0xbd4ff4…
04-10 13:36:41	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	BUY	791	6¢	$50	0xc075e3…
04-10 13:34:57	military action against iran ends by may 31 2026	No	BUY	2,009	2¢	$50	0x7e0733…
04-10 13:34:37	military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	No	BUY	1,221	4¢	$50	0x736dac…
04-10 13:27:23	will 30 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	116	9¢	$10	0xe03876…
04-10 13:27:05	will 20 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	258	4¢	$10	0x3c4b63…
04-10 13:26:45	will 50 59 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	117	43¢	$50	0x588fec…
04-10 01:38:41	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,108	9¢	$100	0xa6dd50…
04-10 01:29:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0x1be2ca…
04-10 01:27:19	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,144	2¢	$50	0x0b14e8…
04-10 01:26:41	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	Yes	BUY	5,708	0¢	$20	0xbf0bd1…
04-10 01:26:19	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	BUY	909	6¢	$50	0xe3414c…
04-10 01:16:27	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 10 2026	Yes	BUY	8,000	2¢	$200	0xb3dffe…
04-09 20:00:01	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	440	10¢	$45	0xe9e7f0…
04-09 19:58:57	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0xe23dbf…
04-09 19:58:35	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	800	20¢	$160	0x31d3d9…
04-09 19:58:17	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x650bd9…
04-09 19:57:57	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x7748ee…
04-09 19:57:55	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	25	10¢	$2	0xa1da7a…
04-09 16:00:01	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0x258616…
04-08 23:24:59	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	215	29¢	$62	0x983f13…
04-08 22:09:03	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	952	40¢	$381	0xad9dec…
04-08 22:08:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0x36a60d…
04-08 22:07:23	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x49c977…
04-08 22:04:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0xb5ca69…
04-08 22:04:15	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x99ff46…
04-08 22:04:03	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x4f3e8f…
04-08 22:02:33	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0xd63ba4…
04-08 22:02:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0xb318e0…
04-08 21:54:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	164	28¢	$46	0x01df35…
04-08 21:54:27	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc8039d…
04-08 21:53:21	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x87393e…
04-08 21:52:07	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0xf7de45…
04-08 21:52:07	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x8e10a2…
04-08 21:51:59	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xd4fa43…
04-08 21:51:23	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xd08d94…
04-08 21:50:49	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xb5aa81…
04-08 21:50:35	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	151	29¢	$44	0xa06f82…
04-08 21:48:41	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x921168…
04-08 21:48:41	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x399d8c…
04-08 21:34:07	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	202	49¢	$100	0x133dbc…
04-08 06:52:49	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,145	12¢	$137	0xd58198…
04-08 06:30:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x0a2421…