Black-Athletics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

26.2%

Resolved

Trades

929

lifetime

Volume

$13.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$58

1 position

First seen

2026-04-13

last 07-01 06:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

34% 25% $-18

Tech

28% — —

Politics

23% 50% $-0

Sports

12% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	No		+75	$49	77¢	$58	+$9	07-01 06:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	9	$615	421	421	+0	open	—	06-30 01:01
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	6	$487	352	352	+0	open	—	06-29 14:41
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	5	$319	216	216	+0	open	—	06-22 14:46
will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	58	$306	225	225	+0	open	—	06-23 16:27
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	5	$295	205	205	+0	open	—	06-26 01:56
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	3	$293	194	194	+0	open	—	06-25 21:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	4	$279	208	208	+0	open	—	06-30 13:54
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	4	$278	176	176	+0	open	—	06-22 20:24
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 17 2026 20260624195228148 249 148 455 443 813	4	$277	185	185	+0	open	—	06-30 01:01
will trump praise lionel messi by june 30	3	$277	173	173	+0	open	—	06-28 20:21
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	3	$277	205	205	+0	open	—	06-30 16:38
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	4	$270	167	191	-24	open	—	06-30 01:01
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10	3	$263	193	193	+0	open	—	06-30 01:01
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	5	$260	219	219	+0	open	—	06-30 01:01
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	4	$250	208	133	+75	open	—	07-01 06:18
will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	5	$195	143	143	+0	open	—	07-01 02:39
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	2	$178	191	96	+96	open	—	06-25 14:03
will spy dip to 720 in june 2026	3	$177	122	122	+0	open	—	06-24 16:05
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	2	$173	166	166	+0	open	—	06-30 01:01
will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	6	$154	112	112	+0	open	—	06-22 16:35
will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	2	$153	196	196	+0	open	—	06-23 19:23
will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	4	$143	122	67	+54	open	—	06-30 01:20
will switzerland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120740	3	$136	133	68	+65	open	—	06-30 01:51
grok 4pt4 released by july 17	1	$135	167	0	+167	open	—	06-30 14:00
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$124	90	90	+0	open	—	06-27 01:59
will trump speak to elon musk in june	2	$122	84	84	+0	open	—	06-18 16:20
will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	10	$103	68	68	+0	open	—	06-24 15:24
will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	3	$103	62	62	+0	open	—	06-28 20:53
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$101	66	66	+0	open	—	06-27 02:00
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$98	63	63	+0	open	—	06-25 02:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 07:41:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x2c7943…
07-01 07:15:59	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x2a1603…
07-01 06:54:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	SELL	14	68¢	$10	0xbc7734…
07-01 06:53:59	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0xc304f7…
07-01 06:18:58	Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	No	SELL	113	76¢	$86	0x3f08e7…
07-01 05:46:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xf1e09f…
07-01 03:30:29	will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	Yes	BUY	59	76¢	$45	0xfec37a…
07-01 02:39:10	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	SELL	28	94¢	$26	0x6f0b09…
07-01 02:23:10	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0x9484f7…
07-01 02:10:10	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	21	62¢	$13	0xd8930e…
07-01 01:30:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x6fc84e…
07-01 00:26:10	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	19	78¢	$15	0xbd89e0…
07-01 00:25:46	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	16	79¢	$13	0xf4ea0d…
07-01 00:23:22	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0xbec49b…
07-01 00:18:10	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	SELL	4	70¢	$2	0x9956dc…
06-30 23:30:55	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	4	67¢	$2	0xdb6215…
06-30 22:40:38	will pedri score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	67	67¢	$45	0xa53b18…
06-30 18:29:10	will norway reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120769	Yes	SELL	27	79¢	$21	0x069c98…
06-30 17:42:10	will norway reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120769	Yes	SELL	41	76¢	$31	0x8b2f8b…
06-30 16:38:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	41	69¢	$28	0x0e51e8…
06-30 14:00:20	grok 4pt4 released by july 17	No	BUY	167	81¢	$135	0xd0cbd7…
06-30 13:54:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	42	75¢	$31	0x7c8788…
06-30 12:25:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	156	68¢	$106	0x29cfa2…
06-30 12:24:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0xd959b4…
06-30 11:54:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	164	69¢	$113	0x577f4f…
06-30 11:35:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	208	65¢	$135	0x2c3967…
06-30 10:48:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	45	75¢	$34	0xfea199…
06-30 09:48:49	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xf9b506…
06-30 07:45:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	205	66¢	$135	0xac1963…
06-30 06:25:32	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x6a2af9…
06-30 04:38:26	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	Yes	BUY	56	80¢	$45	0xf95ee3…
06-30 01:51:50	will switzerland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120740	Yes	BUY	65	69¢	$45	0xf4d861…
06-30 01:30:08	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	63	71¢	$45	0x2f8133…
06-30 01:20:17	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	54	83¢	$45	0x9841d3…
06-30 01:20:17	will norway reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120769	Yes	BUY	68	66¢	$45	0x53237d…
06-30 01:20:17	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	BUY	70	64¢	$45	0x186545…
06-30 01:01:55	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	SELL	13	13¢	$2	0xd5002d…
06-30 01:01:55	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xc64517…
06-30 01:01:53	will switzerland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120740	Yes	SELL	68	67¢	$46	0xd118b1…
06-30 01:01:53	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Up	SELL	67	61¢	$41	0xb0f980…
06-30 01:01:53	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	SELL	27	82¢	$22	0x381af3…
06-30 01:01:53	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	57	78¢	$45	0x23b310…
06-30 01:01:53	will belgium reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120759	Yes	SELL	25	59¢	$15	0x078bde…
06-30 01:01:52	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	SELL	73	63¢	$46	0xeb9018…
06-30 01:01:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	77	78¢	$60	0x7d748c…
06-30 01:01:52	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 17 2026 20260624195228148 249 148 455 443 813	Yes	SELL	74	76¢	$56	0x765ab7…
06-30 01:01:52	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	SELL	70	37¢	$26	0x03f2c8…
06-30 01:01:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10	Yes	SELL	109	61¢	$67	0xbc0724…
06-30 01:01:50	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	SELL	166	23¢	$38	0x328beb…
06-29 22:51:25	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 17 2026 20260624195228148 249 148 455 443 813	Yes	SELL	111	77¢	$85	0xf1b2d4…
06-29 22:46:05	will germany reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120751	Yes	SELL	32	93¢	$30	0x3c6bd8…
06-29 18:29:50	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	57	79¢	$45	0xbb2ce4…
06-29 18:17:04	will brazil reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120743	Yes	SELL	61	59¢	$36	0x62a992…
06-29 14:41:10	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	SELL	116	81¢	$94	0x653632…
06-29 13:49:34	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	SELL	105	66¢	$69	0xfb4d1e…
06-29 12:07:16	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0xcaf032…
06-29 12:06:46	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	8	84¢	$6	0x8a6539…
06-29 07:27:08	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	SELL	45	67¢	$30	0x77ec46…
06-29 04:28:58	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 17 2026 20260624195228148 249 148 455 443 813	Yes	BUY	125	73¢	$91	0xff5712…
06-29 04:02:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	63	74¢	$46	0x1b6a96…
06-29 04:01:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	53	74¢	$39	0xda8b4b…
06-28 21:07:47	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	BUY	73	62¢	$45	0x497a93…
06-28 20:53:08	will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x0098a4…
06-28 20:52:07	will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	Yes	SELL	37	92¢	$34	0x2ba388…
06-28 20:21:08	will trump praise lionel messi by june 30	No	SELL	69	83¢	$57	0xc9f013…
06-28 19:22:05	will trump praise lionel messi by june 30	No	SELL	104	82¢	$85	0x97e58d…
06-28 13:14:37	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	166	82¢	$135	0x84b8bb…
06-28 10:05:14	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	BUY	157	61¢	$96	0x7fdff1…
06-28 04:55:49	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	SELL	69	70¢	$48	0xabf63d…
06-28 04:34:02	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 17 2026 20260624195228148 249 148 455 443 813	Yes	BUY	60	73¢	$44	0x778e1e…
06-28 04:12:17	will brazil reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120743	Yes	BUY	61	74¢	$45	0x86d9c5…
06-28 03:58:55	Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x25e5c6…
06-28 03:41:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	193	70¢	$135	0x0db947…
06-28 01:21:46	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	85	65¢	$55	0xe8c843…
06-27 23:21:11	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xb08940…
06-27 23:11:08	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	BUY	62	63¢	$39	0x158a1d…
06-27 21:35:55	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	SELL	168	53¢	$89	0xee2fc7…
06-27 20:57:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10	Yes	SELL	84	74¢	$62	0xcb7323…
06-27 15:21:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10	Yes	BUY	193	70¢	$135	0x432c7f…
06-27 02:21:43	Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	No	BUY	188	72¢	$135	0x629376…
06-27 02:00:13	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$26	0x53c30e…
06-27 01:59:13	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0x98368c…
06-27 01:50:13	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	39	79¢	$31	0x6058fd…
06-27 00:51:13	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	40	75¢	$30	0xe59252…
06-26 07:26:13	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	168	80¢	$134	0x88f530…
06-26 01:56:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	143	82¢	$117	0x2a48d9…
06-26 00:32:25	will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	Yes	BUY	62	73¢	$45	0xaca331…
06-25 21:13:16	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	SELL	136	84¢	$114	0xdb439b…
06-25 21:00:37	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	SELL	58	74¢	$43	0xba9e30…
06-25 20:52:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x484ed5…
06-25 20:52:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	45	70¢	$31	0x76fc9d…
06-25 20:52:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x08abc8…
06-25 20:33:16	will trump praise delcy rodriguez by june 30	Yes	SELL	12	57¢	$7	0x975f73…
06-25 20:32:25	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	194	70¢	$136	0x9e213f…
06-25 20:03:14	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	36	87¢	$31	0x89771d…
06-25 16:12:47	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	66	68¢	$45	0x5c4104…
06-25 15:48:14	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x7ac588…
06-25 14:03:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	SELL	96	45¢	$43	0x89b2ef…
06-25 13:42:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	205	66¢	$135	0xfe677c…
06-25 11:03:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	191	71¢	$135	0x13104e…