Black-Athletics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.17K

Unrealized P&L

-$121

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

952

Trades

3,372

lifetime

Volume

$145.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$100

6 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 10-30 08:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 165 days

Categories

Other

57% 67% -$3,790

Politics

29% 69% -$1,289

Tech

11% 70% -$1,120

Sports

3% 73% +$41

Crypto

0% 53% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	+67	$80	71¢	$47	-$32	10-26 00:23
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	+63	$45	70¢	$45	$0	10-30 15:43
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	+52	$42	11¢	$6	-$37	10-29 16:35
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	+12	$31	11¢	$1	-$29	10-30 08:25
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	+33	$26	2¢	$1	-$25	10-29 17:29
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	+0	-$2	96¢	$0	+$3	10-24 17:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	6	$965	576	576	+0	No	+$20	07-27 23:50
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	7	$897	565	565	+0	No	+$27	07-25 21:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$896	564	564	+0	Yes	+$26	07-26 12:25
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	8	$861	629	629	+0	Yes	+$21	07-27 19:37
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August?	7	$839	479	479	+0	No	+$14	08-31 15:03
Will Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?	9	$836	560	484	+76	Yes	+$102	08-12 03:09
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?	3	$834	463	463	+0	Yes	+$24	07-30 14:49
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	9	$832	590	590	+0	No	+$22	07-08 02:10
will coin dip to 125 in july 2026	4	$828	449	448	+0	No	+$18	07-29 21:41
pltr above 172 on august 21 2026	3	$759	556	444	+111	Yes	+$59	08-21 14:27
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	7	$707	575	487	+89	Yes	-$103	07-20 22:30
will rklb dip to 58 by july 27 2026	5	$681	506	506	+0	No	-$129	07-30 21:16
will nflx reach 75 by july 27 2026	3	$659	476	286	+191	No	+$40	07-30 13:29
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of August?	3	$655	513	279	+233	Yes	+$78	08-27 13:33
will pltr dip to 120 by july 27 2026	4	$654	513	300	+213	Yes	-$156	07-28 10:03
iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	10	$645	393	393	+0	No	+$11	07-31 17:32
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of August 31 above $500?	6	$642	520	346	+174	No	-$169	09-03 14:03
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	5	$641	425	382	+44	No	+$10	07-30 07:45
Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?	4	$631	411	411	+0	Yes	+$31	09-01 01:05
iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	9	$627	429	429	+0	No	+$18	07-26 10:47
aapl above 320 on august 21 2026	9	$627	381	381	+0	No	+$27	08-20 19:32
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	3	$621	519	519	+0	Yes	+$19	07-23 09:23
iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	7	$621	455	455	+0	No	+$21	07-23 11:52
will amzn reach 260 by july 20 2026	3	$617	333	333	+0	No	+$17	07-24 08:26
iran full airspace closure by august 15	3	$617	441	441	+0	No	+$17	08-02 00:25
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	3	$616	441	441	+0	No	+$16	07-29 00:27
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of August?	3	$616	429	429	+0	No	+$16	08-26 22:05
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	9	$615	421	421	+0	Yes	+$20	06-30 01:01
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	3	$615	484	484	+0	No	+$15	08-10 04:01
israel closes its airspace by august 15	3	$614	349	349	+0	No	+$14	08-07 03:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:43:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	63	71¢	$45	0xc0d7bb…
10-30 08:25:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	24¢	$3	0x268d36…
10-30 07:55:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0x96d05a…
10-30 06:13:25	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 29?	No	SELL	39	84¢	$33	0x25d934…
10-30 02:39:34	Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	241	56¢	$135	0x70cc91…
10-30 01:01:10	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Ohio Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	222	61¢	$135	0xa4b5f8…
10-30 00:33:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election?	Yes	BUY	113	87¢	$99	0xb2a379…
10-30 00:29:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election?	Yes	BUY	42	86¢	$36	0xd18c62…
10-29 23:53:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	36¢	$6	0xb39548…
10-29 23:41:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	194	70¢	$135	0xc894ee…
10-29 21:59:25	Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?	No	SELL	73	88¢	$64	0x3e7123…
10-29 17:29:23	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x049ab9…
10-29 16:35:32	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xe09499…
10-29 16:35:26	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0xab95cd…
10-29 16:34:31	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	86¢	$4	0x59705d…
10-29 16:34:25	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	86¢	$22	0xc2332e…
10-29 16:22:05	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x285d6e…
10-29 16:22:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xf33a78…
10-29 16:22:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	85¢	$19	0x056876…
10-29 15:45:25	Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	12	69¢	$8	0x4d4c96…
10-29 15:36:35	Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	No	SELL	87	97¢	$85	0x601a7c…
10-29 15:13:23	Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	46	69¢	$32	0x10ccdb…
10-29 08:07:13	Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by October 31?	Yes	BUY	28	93¢	$26	0xc19f11…
10-29 08:07:13	Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0x4841f5…
10-29 05:43:23	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	No	SELL	62	93¢	$58	0xc3eb82…
10-29 03:05:23	Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0xdc1154…
10-29 03:02:20	Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x9b35a9…
10-29 02:53:23	Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0x167455…
10-29 01:27:23	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 29?	No	SELL	19	67¢	$13	0x14de35…
10-28 18:31:25	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	94¢	$21	0xff1cdd…
10-28 17:31:25	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	No	SELL	40	80¢	$32	0x241627…
10-28 12:11:25	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	84¢	$29	0x2ac219…
10-28 11:15:47	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 29?	No	BUY	58	77¢	$45	0xefe864…
10-28 11:01:25	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x559da0…
10-28 10:21:25	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x7161ec…
10-28 10:20:59	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	59¢	$45	0x288d55…
10-28 08:47:25	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	No	SELL	76	87¢	$66	0xc873e0…
10-28 08:05:35	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	79¢	$45	0x0913fd…
10-28 05:15:23	Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?	No	SELL	36	80¢	$29	0x51078e…
10-28 04:41:23	Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?	No	SELL	53	84¢	$45	0xcbb6a7…
10-28 00:55:24	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	SELL	22	89¢	$20	0x60a68b…
10-28 00:41:24	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	No	SELL	31	87¢	$27	0x22a626…
10-27 23:52:17	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xd4df10…
10-27 23:51:38	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	No	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0x10967a…
10-27 23:35:26	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0x156bf6…
10-27 22:15:24	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x9f8997…
10-27 20:57:24	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	No	SELL	37	78¢	$29	0xcd26b3…
10-27 19:57:24	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	17	85¢	$15	0x4fd071…
10-27 19:51:30	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 in October?	Yes	SELL	55	99¢	$55	0xc3741f…
10-27 19:50:54	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 in October?	Yes	SELL	24	94¢	$22	0xd52269…
10-27 18:47:27	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	16	80¢	$13	0x1f13e6…
10-27 17:25:57	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 in October?	Yes	BUY	37	90¢	$34	0xd2a3b2…
10-27 17:13:57	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 in October?	Yes	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0x9bc825…
10-27 16:35:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	91¢	$19	0xb2e1da…
10-27 16:21:26	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	No	SELL	56	81¢	$45	0xf49481…
10-27 15:48:29	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	42	86¢	$36	0xe86c10…
10-27 15:44:42	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	9	86¢	$8	0x22de64…
10-27 15:21:26	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xf306e5…
10-27 15:05:27	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	90¢	$28	0xc57635…
10-27 14:43:15	Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xe9315c…
10-27 13:47:24	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0x35527f…
10-27 13:19:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	65	79¢	$51	0x6993a7…
10-27 12:41:24	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	22	20¢	$4	0x38948c…
10-27 12:35:26	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xd33ee1…
10-27 11:52:36	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	No	BUY	160	84¢	$135	0xadf07b…
10-27 11:25:26	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	SELL	35	65¢	$23	0xcef509…
10-27 11:07:26	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0xb26e0f…
10-27 10:14:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	86¢	$45	0x6dbda0…
10-27 10:09:26	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	91¢	$19	0xd6b272…
10-27 09:50:53	Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	No	BUY	146	93¢	$135	0x32cd24…
10-27 09:03:09	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	No	BUY	169	80¢	$135	0x52be29…
10-27 07:05:24	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	24	84¢	$21	0xbc2af2…
10-27 04:12:56	Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?	No	BUY	162	83¢	$135	0xb53645…
10-27 03:23:30	Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	58	66¢	$38	0x6054e2…
10-27 02:29:08	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0xe1227e…
10-27 02:16:14	Will Doug Cornell win the 2026 Pickering mayoral election?	No	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0xe98558…
10-27 02:15:08	Will Doug Cornell win the 2026 Pickering mayoral election?	No	SELL	28	93¢	$26	0xd43f61…
10-27 02:15:08	Will Doug Cornell win the 2026 Pickering mayoral election?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x51e19a…
10-27 01:51:08	Will Michael Lucid win the 2026 Niagara Falls mayoral election?	No	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0xa3dd84…
10-27 01:49:12	Will Michael Lucid win the 2026 Niagara Falls mayoral election?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0xb2cc10…
10-27 01:49:08	Will Michael Lucid win the 2026 Niagara Falls mayoral election?	No	SELL	19	86¢	$16	0xea537e…
10-27 01:49:08	Will Michael Lucid win the 2026 Niagara Falls mayoral election?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x1441c2…
10-27 01:39:08	Will Drew Dilkens win the 2026 Windsor mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xa03c5b…
10-26 23:30:06	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	80	82¢	$66	0xcbe1ad…
10-26 23:30:06	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x6df107…
10-26 22:59:08	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$8	0x085ce1…
10-26 22:41:08	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x1db39b…
10-26 20:39:08	Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	No	SELL	28	90¢	$25	0x229ee7…
10-26 19:27:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	16	76¢	$12	0x2b09b7…
10-26 19:26:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x19b022…
10-26 19:26:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$7	0x476302…
10-26 19:25:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x4aa3e1…
10-26 19:16:20	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	90¢	$28	0x1bea53…
10-26 16:08:39	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	86¢	$45	0xcd64cd…
10-26 15:31:59	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0x4e48aa…
10-26 15:31:57	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x5b4f3d…
10-26 15:05:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?	No	SELL	31	94¢	$29	0x3af51a…
10-26 13:49:11	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	22	83¢	$18	0xcdb8a6…
10-26 13:22:50	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	90¢	$19	0xf612df…
10-26 11:47:09	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	11	85¢	$9	0xf788e0…