Cluttered-Infection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

40.0%

Resolved

Trades

128

lifetime

Volume

$170

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 10-04 19:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Other

44% 37% -$6

Politics

29% 50% +$4

Crypto

25% 32% -$19

Sports

2% 50% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes		+18	$3	2¢	$0	-$2	05-13 20:03
will gavin newsom announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241605	Yes		+0	$0	82¢	$0	$0	08-05 00:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	14	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	08-03 19:14
grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	10	$11	11	11	+1	Yes	-$1	08-10 23:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 16:00 UTC	1	$10	18	0	+18	Down	-$10	04-23 16:04
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	4	$9	13	13	+0	Yes	+$3	05-12 11:11
will ukraine target moscow by august 10 2026 20260807123552989	7	$8	7	7	+0	Yes	+$0	08-10 03:50
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	8	$7	9	9	+0	No	-$1	08-11 01:20
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	9	$7	14	13	+0	No	-$1	08-11 01:20
ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260804183343485	5	$6	4	4	+0	Yes	$0	08-14 08:18
Will Benin win on 2026-10-06?	1	$5	299	0	+299	No	-$5	10-04 19:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 15:35 UTC	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	+$4	04-23 15:36
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$5	7	7	+0	No	+$3	05-11 08:49
spy closes above 735 on july 29 2026	2	$4	5	5	+0	No	+$0	07-29 17:09
iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	3	$4	3	3	+0	No	+$0	07-31 21:06
will romuald wadagni be the next president of benin	2	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-25 17:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 15:50 UTC	1	$3	5	0	+5	Down	+$2	04-23 15:50
will the us house censure any member by october 31 20260804215940338	3	$3	5	0	+5	Yes	+$2	08-06 12:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:10 UTC	3	$3	7	0	+7	Down	-$2	07-15 11:12
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	3	$3	3	3	+0	No	-$1	08-11 09:11
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	1	$3	18	0	+18	open	—	05-13 20:03
will russia target kyiv by august 10 2026 20260809090428975	3	$3	2	2	+0	No	-$1	08-10 10:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 21:05 UTC	2	$2	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	04-16 21:08
will the next grok model 4pt6 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 35 or higher 20260810180408166	3	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	08-11 13:39
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$2	4	4	+0	No	+$0	05-11 19:35
will gavin newsom announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241605	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	08-05 00:16
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$2	15	15	+0	No	$0	05-11 14:25
ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 8 2026 20260804183343484	4	$2	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	08-14 08:19
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-17?	1	$1	42	0	+42	No	-$1	05-18 18:54
lal bar cel 2026 04 22 cel	1	$1	103	0	+103	No	-$1	04-22 21:32
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$1	3	3	+0	No	-$1	04-25 17:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	1	$1	50	0	+50	Down	-$1	05-18 08:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 19:18:26	Will Benin win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	299	2¢	$5	0x46be68…
08-14 08:19:16	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 8 2026 20260804183343484	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$1	0x2af025…
08-14 08:18:54	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260804183343485	Yes	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xd31218…
08-11 18:59:33	Grok 4.6 released on or prior to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x3346ae…
08-11 13:39:54	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 35 or higher 20260810180408166	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x430dce…
08-11 12:28:25	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 35 or higher 20260810180408166	Yes	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0xab3e9e…
08-11 09:31:39	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 35 or higher 20260810180408166	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xad56e2…
08-11 09:11:43	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0x90e72f…
08-11 06:08:06	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x371968…
08-11 06:08:01	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xee13ca…
08-11 01:20:12	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xb1d54e…
08-11 01:20:10	Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x55873f…
08-11 00:42:57	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x414683…
08-11 00:30:33	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 8 2026 20260804183343484	Yes	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0xa5a84f…
08-11 00:30:21	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 8 2026 20260804183343484	Yes	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0xa70b55…
08-11 00:00:48	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x84e17f…
08-10 23:59:22	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x211152…
08-10 23:58:46	Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x6f9ec9…
08-10 23:53:33	Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x51b918…
08-10 23:53:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	No	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0x00162f…
08-10 23:53:07	Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe94a62…
08-10 23:46:01	Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd71e6b…
08-10 23:34:43	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x494761…
08-10 23:31:57	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x10ad3b…
08-10 23:31:45	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0xce2c91…
08-10 23:31:45	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x660217…
08-10 23:29:09	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x050747…
08-10 23:28:55	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x377b1d…
08-10 23:28:42	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xaea864…
08-10 23:25:52	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x908d6f…
08-10 23:25:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xabf510…
08-10 23:25:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x84e6d2…
08-10 23:25:40	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0x44e0ea…
08-10 23:25:39	Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	No	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0xa8dacb…
08-10 23:21:52	Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x5b800d…
08-10 23:15:24	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x10dc7e…
08-10 23:15:16	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xec46d8…
08-10 23:12:34	Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x005ca1…
08-10 23:04:54	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x92834d…
08-10 10:31:54	will russia target kyiv by august 10 2026 20260809090428975	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xea553c…
08-10 09:21:46	will russia target kyiv by august 10 2026 20260809090428975	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3b21f3…
08-10 08:52:57	will russia target kyiv by august 10 2026 20260809090428975	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x6feccd…
08-10 03:50:15	will ukraine target moscow by august 10 2026 20260807123552989	Yes	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x29a14f…
08-10 01:49:45	will ukraine target moscow by august 10 2026 20260807123552989	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x41d815…
08-10 01:48:03	will ukraine target moscow by august 10 2026 20260807123552989	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0xffd8b9…
08-10 01:47:16	will ukraine target moscow by august 10 2026 20260807123552989	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x2f6461…
08-10 00:12:39	will ukraine target moscow by august 10 2026 20260807123552989	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x17b63b…
08-09 12:43:52	will ukraine target moscow by august 10 2026 20260807123552989	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x577933…
08-09 04:41:54	will ukraine target moscow by august 10 2026 20260807123552989	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x661262…
08-06 18:01:12	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 8 2026 20260804183343484	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x3b893b…
08-06 12:00:17	will the us house censure any member by october 31 20260804215940338	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x6429b0…
08-05 06:53:15	will the us house censure any member by october 31 20260804215940338	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xbac141…
08-05 03:32:32	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260804183343485	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x58d7d2…
08-05 03:22:35	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260804183343485	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x079ea4…
08-05 03:16:30	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260804183343485	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x6970bb…
08-05 03:12:47	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260804183343485	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xabc8ce…
08-05 02:52:00	will the us house censure any member by october 31 20260804215940338	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe7c90d…
08-05 00:16:03	will gavin newsom announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241605	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x43584d…
08-04 22:55:24	will gavin newsom announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241605	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe1e759…
08-03 19:14:38	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	16	79¢	$13	0x392bd9…
08-01 15:45:21	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x539235…
08-01 15:45:00	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x1be57b…
08-01 15:44:41	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x0c47d6…
08-01 15:44:35	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xf49c3d…
08-01 15:43:35	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x192de9…
08-01 15:42:48	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc350d6…
08-01 15:42:41	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x886a65…
08-01 15:42:35	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc39a4e…
08-01 15:42:08	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3b4301…
08-01 15:41:54	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xbdc823…
08-01 15:41:14	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x876edc…
08-01 15:40:02	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x2a729d…
08-01 15:39:51	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x084fc7…
07-31 21:06:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	No	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0x2a4025…
07-31 10:07:42	spy closes above 735 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb7e026…
07-29 17:09:09	spy closes above 735 on july 29 2026	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$2	0x47b43a…
07-29 16:34:51	spy closes above 735 on july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x9ac4a7…
07-17 12:03:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x5803f0…
07-17 06:26:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc59441…
07-15 11:12:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x04f9bf…
07-15 11:12:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x37a148…
07-15 11:11:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x91d2f4…
05-18 18:54:49	Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-17?	Yes	BUY	42	3¢	$1	0x2d574b…
05-18 12:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x39ddc4…
05-18 12:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x0bc200…
05-18 11:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7852ee…
05-18 11:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xf233b9…
05-18 11:41:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x0aeb37…
05-18 11:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb9fef4…
05-18 09:49:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x38e28e…
05-18 09:20:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa3b946…
05-18 08:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x520feb…
05-18 08:13:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb30710…
05-18 07:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x03efb6…
05-18 07:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x480001…
05-13 20:03:13	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0xcc3c3e…
05-12 11:11:28	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x30fd65…
05-12 09:57:10	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x8aacd4…
05-12 09:20:52	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xfb2ea7…
05-11 19:35:51	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x60f3fb…