Smoggy-Sunglasses — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.40K

Unrealized P&L

+$430

Hit rate

96.4%

Resolved

Trades

2,516

lifetime

Volume

$859.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$342

Open exposure

$20.7K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 05:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

49% 67% +$992

Politics

47% 67% +$1,407

Tech

4% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+20,000	$18,400	92¢	$18.5K	+$100	07-21 04:02
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	+2,029	$1,136	70¢	$1.4K	+$274	06-29 04:21
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+664	$515	88¢	$581	+$65	07-01 15:38
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	-199	$-178	94¢	$-188	$-10	06-26 08:59
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	No	+40	$26	68¢	$27	+$1	06-03 18:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	26	$22.4K	11,672	15,672	-4,000	open	—	04-13 18:35
Trump out as President before 2027?	10	$18.4K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	07-21 04:02
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	6	$17.5K	9,371	9,371	+0	open	—	04-16 02:50
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	31	$17.0K	10,182	9,657	+526	open	—	04-18 08:54
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	8	$16.9K	9,144	9,144	+0	open	—	04-23 09:46
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	22	$16.8K	8,892	9,585	-692	open	—	04-18 17:18
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	7	$15.9K	8,718	8,718	+0	open	—	05-29 09:21
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	29	$14.3K	42,490	0	+42,490	open	—	04-21 16:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	4	$13.7K	7,136	7,136	+0	No	+$546	04-29 16:27
netanyahu out by march 31 854	12	$11.8K	6,051	6,051	+0	open	—	03-25 08:29
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	10	$11.8K	6,950	6,990	-40	open	—	03-11 13:43
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	16	$11.6K	7,057	5,406	+1,650	open	—	05-31 08:44
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	41	$11.6K	15,005	0	+15,005	open	—	04-21 18:16
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	8	$11.3K	6,073	6,073	+0	open	—	03-31 15:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$10.6K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	05-26 20:26
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	9	$10.5K	15,754	200	+15,554	open	—	05-16 14:24
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	21	$10.4K	7,380	6,400	+980	open	—	04-20 18:38
will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	6	$9.6K	12,231	2,000	+10,231	open	—	07-18 09:19
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$9.5K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	04-02 17:22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	8	$9.4K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	06-26 09:52
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	11	$9.3K	9,316	2,316	+7,000	open	—	04-30 10:35
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	36	$9.0K	10,000	5,501	+4,499	open	—	05-25 05:37
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	32	$9.0K	7,205	2,500	+4,705	open	—	06-28 16:42
israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	26	$8.9K	5,009	5,009	+0	open	—	03-26 21:29
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	2	$8.6K	4,913	4,913	+0	open	—	04-16 07:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	34	$8.0K	4,510	6,374	-1,865	open	—	04-03 11:39
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	12	$7.8K	5,437	2,934	+2,503	open	—	05-03 18:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	9	$7.8K	8,956	0	+8,956	open	—	05-09 09:01
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	8	$7.8K	4,177	4,177	+0	open	—	04-21 10:02
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	9	$7.7K	9,100	300	+8,800	open	—	05-29 19:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 05:47:45	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 31 2026 20260714212508553	No	BUY	717	74¢	$531	0xb3e4cd…
07-22 05:19:12	us embassy in damascus reopened by december 31 2026	No	BUY	118	72¢	$85	0x9d542f…
07-22 05:18:18	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1,513	76¢	$1,156	0x894229…
07-22 05:17:48	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1,638	82¢	$1,349	0xf582ec…
07-21 05:30:00	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 24 2026 20260714212508552	No	BUY	105	78¢	$82	0xfbade4…
07-21 04:02:01	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	376	92¢	$346	0x2fa18f…
07-21 03:27:30	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	170	92¢	$156	0x5a3177…
07-21 03:11:03	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	167	92¢	$153	0x94522b…
07-21 02:22:25	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	208	92¢	$191	0x3b8688…
07-21 02:16:52	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	340	92¢	$313	0xa197e2…
07-21 00:45:12	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 31 2026 20260714210903833	No	BUY	220	57¢	$125	0x1356b5…
07-20 23:40:25	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	125	92¢	$115	0x8373f1…
07-20 09:17:07	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$7	0x4fdbc5…
07-20 08:29:27	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x0f039a…
07-20 06:29:33	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	3	92¢	$2	0x8ff4c5…
07-20 05:56:46	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	18,593	92¢	$17,106	0xe1c5a3…
07-19 15:23:40	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	8,476	59¢	$5,000	0x71c952…
07-19 15:10:09	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	108	73¢	$79	0x7b37cb…
07-19 15:08:25	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	180	73¢	$131	0x2fd286…
07-19 12:56:55	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	No	BUY	1,841	87¢	$1,602	0x76e97a…
07-18 10:00:58	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	No	BUY	312	50¢	$156	0x3bdc48…
07-18 09:19:15	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	SELL	311	72¢	$224	0x5ce0a2…
07-18 09:19:03	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x13c32f…
07-18 09:19:00	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	SELL	1,687	72¢	$1,215	0x56c7ed…
07-18 03:18:16	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	BUY	748	69¢	$514	0x0e9e5e…
07-18 03:18:15	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x644281…
07-17 08:11:33	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	SELL	263	79¢	$207	0x79b127…
07-17 05:21:10	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	SELL	741	79¢	$588	0xe2cc04…
07-15 21:42:04	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 31 2026 20260714212508553	No	BUY	168	75¢	$126	0x4dea14…
07-15 16:03:04	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 24 2026 20260714210903832	No	BUY	317	94¢	$298	0x6078c0…
07-15 16:02:44	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 17 2026 20260714210903831	No	BUY	898	97¢	$874	0x111113…
07-15 15:33:07	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 31 2026 20260714210903833	No	BUY	60	72¢	$43	0x5d6f4c…
07-15 15:13:19	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	No	BUY	1,959	89¢	$1,748	0x0ba664…
07-14 21:18:59	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	464	91¢	$421	0x60fbb5…
07-14 18:42:31	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	1,300	94¢	$1,216	0xaeade4…
07-14 16:23:22	israel military action against yemen by july 21 20260714001321876	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xe5a470…
07-14 16:17:37	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	BUY	3,508	87¢	$3,063	0x2417c9…
07-14 16:17:16	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	No	BUY	2,181	53¢	$1,149	0x31f5a4…
07-14 16:16:47	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	BUY	11,452	66¢	$7,614	0xa75832…
07-14 04:50:14	israel military action against yemen by july 14 20260714001321875	No	BUY	319	98¢	$313	0x97132a…
07-14 04:48:55	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	No	BUY	2,005	87¢	$1,744	0x300bd9…
07-14 04:47:22	Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?	No	BUY	1,019	93¢	$945	0x3ed96c…
07-06 15:15:43	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	260	67¢	$174	0x5f889b…
07-06 14:56:23	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	90	67¢	$60	0x4f145d…
07-06 14:35:59	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x23b010…
07-06 14:18:11	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	45	67¢	$30	0x9b5200…
07-06 11:53:01	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0x6810e7…
07-06 11:16:34	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	171	67¢	$115	0xc7225a…
07-06 09:51:56	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	981	67¢	$657	0x444e62…
07-06 08:21:25	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	60	66¢	$40	0x142148…
07-06 08:14:59	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x19d62f…
07-06 08:09:52	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	56	66¢	$37	0x143236…
07-06 06:51:34	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x8ad849…
07-06 06:47:59	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x79dbef…
07-06 05:29:44	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	156	66¢	$103	0xcb9bd7…
07-06 05:23:17	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x564732…
07-06 05:23:14	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	972	66¢	$642	0x2be3c8…
07-05 23:20:23	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396	No	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0x9b3bdf…
07-05 20:54:53	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396	No	BUY	49	89¢	$43	0x1e0f11…
07-05 16:38:40	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396	No	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0xbde994…
07-05 15:04:44	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396	No	BUY	91	89¢	$81	0x66e90f…
07-05 08:09:25	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396	No	BUY	181	89¢	$161	0x00684a…
07-04 10:52:58	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	270	66¢	$178	0x3d23ff…
07-04 10:52:56	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	186	66¢	$123	0x7d708e…
07-04 02:00:37	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x39e30b…
07-04 00:19:17	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	1	66¢	$0	0x116d0a…
07-03 21:57:50	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	800	66¢	$528	0x41aae7…
07-03 21:53:37	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	1,000	66¢	$660	0xe54544…
07-03 21:53:31	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	250	66¢	$165	0xcb5f77…
07-03 21:53:31	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	783	66¢	$517	0x500da9…
07-01 19:29:41	us bank failure by july 31 20260630183502534	No	BUY	424	83¢	$350	0xebfe8c…
07-01 15:40:38	us bank failure by july 31 20260630183502534	No	BUY	562	83¢	$466	0x221d69…
07-01 15:38:38	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	664	78¢	$515	0x6b77eb…
06-29 15:56:58	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	715	93¢	$665	0x3dd4a0…
06-29 15:53:53	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	494	100¢	$492	0xbace50…
06-29 15:32:32	will eisenkot join the bennett lapid alliance by august 31 2026 20260628215113848	No	BUY	448	52¢	$233	0x4c146c…
06-29 15:32:14	Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	No	BUY	1,111	98¢	$1,088	0x04c969…
06-29 04:21:55	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	625	56¢	$350	0x44a9fd…
06-29 00:45:08	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x49340a…
06-29 00:45:08	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x02134e…
06-29 00:45:02	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0c9d75…
06-29 00:45:01	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd52f00…
06-29 00:45:01	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc89b54…
06-29 00:45:01	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x16943f…
06-29 00:44:59	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe6ac19…
06-28 22:40:34	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	26	56¢	$15	0x4e4ccd…
06-28 21:33:38	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	1,484	99¢	$1,475	0x619265…
06-28 19:57:52	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	295	56¢	$165	0x397e12…
06-28 19:10:44	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	753	56¢	$422	0x2b80ad…
06-28 18:45:35	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	1,183	93¢	$1,100	0xe2ef00…
06-28 16:42:08	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	SELL	1,051	100¢	$1,046	0xc52145…
06-28 15:52:41	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0xf4af76…
06-28 15:40:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x567875…
06-28 15:01:37	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	SELL	949	100¢	$944	0xd5553f…
06-28 11:22:17	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$36	0x0ae9be…
06-28 10:07:01	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x5703b8…
06-28 09:58:34	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	309	56¢	$173	0x9537b3…
06-28 08:21:46	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	1,479	99¢	$1,470	0x0fcb5d…
06-28 04:49:49	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	583	91¢	$530	0xeafa5c…
06-28 04:49:26	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	125	81¢	$101	0x69e77a…