Probable-Examination — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$881

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.4%

Resolved

882

Trades

1,492

lifetime

Volume

$49.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 11-08 08:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 51% +$881

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	2	$835	545	545	+0	Up	+$235	10-20 11:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 04:00 UTC	2	$541	345	345	+0	Down	+$141	10-14 04:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 04:20 UTC	4	$519	494	477	+17	Down	+$10	04-10 04:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	2	$503	368	368	+0	Up	+$203	10-08 03:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	2	$483	327	327	+0	Up	+$163	10-21 01:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	2	$471	467	467	+0	Up	+$71	10-21 01:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$446	274	274	+0	Up	+$96	10-05 13:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 12:00 UTC	2	$440	267	261	+6	Down	+$83	04-15 12:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$415	258	258	+0	Up	+$95	10-08 02:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	2	$399	261	261	+0	Down	+$119	10-06 02:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	2	$391	304	304	+0	Up	+$193	11-06 02:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	2	$389	286	286	+0	Down	+$109	10-13 02:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 02:15 UTC	5	$376	229	226	+3	Down	-$3	04-16 02:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	2	$363	219	219	+0	Down	+$67	05-09 02:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	2	$361	286	286	+0	Up	+$81	10-08 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	2	$346	253	253	+0	Up	+$140	09-23 01:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 02:35 UTC	2	$332	251	240	+11	Down	+$141	04-13 02:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$331	181	181	+0	Up	+$27	05-08 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	5	$325	298	298	+0	Up	+$75	10-21 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	2	$315	178	178	+0	Down	+$35	10-08 02:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:00 UTC	2	$312	207	203	+4	Up	+$13	04-15 11:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	3	$310	293	249	+44	Down	+$76	11-06 01:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	2	$310	233	233	+0	Up	+$30	10-21 02:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:45 UTC	2	$306	211	205	+6	Up	+$49	04-15 11:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:15 UTC	2	$305	208	203	+5	Down	+$27	04-15 11:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	2	$300	207	207	+0	Up	+$110	05-08 02:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	2	$286	510	510	+0	Up	+$46	10-21 02:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:55 UTC	2	$283	190	184	+6	Down	+$88	04-15 12:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	2	$273	198	198	+0	Down	+$79	10-28 02:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	2	$258	161	161	+0	Down	+$58	10-13 03:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 08:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	97	17¢	$16	0x4d7993…
11-08 08:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	SELL	166	69¢	$115	0x85655d…
11-08 08:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	166	45¢	$74	0xfb2036…
11-08 08:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	117	4¢	$5	0x8241df…
11-08 08:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	117	51¢	$60	0xa89795…
11-08 08:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	92	86¢	$79	0x7f0ec2…
11-08 08:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	92	60¢	$55	0x7452f8…
11-08 08:11:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	96	24¢	$23	0x937c04…
11-08 07:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	75	99¢	$75	0x2c1e03…
11-08 07:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	75	53¢	$40	0x1ecd02…
11-08 01:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	SELL	35	75¢	$26	0x5b1226…
11-08 01:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0x9f1410…
11-08 01:44:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x0c3c02…
11-08 01:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	102	51¢	$52	0x4b6ebb…
11-08 01:36:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	70¢	$3	0xb91370…
11-08 01:35:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	92	25¢	$23	0x95c4db…
11-08 01:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0xffed46…
11-08 01:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0xfe8dc7…
11-08 01:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0xda4b1d…
11-08 01:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	124	96¢	$118	0x277931…
11-08 01:19:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	124	53¢	$66	0xe4e3e1…
11-08 01:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x1cc877…
11-08 01:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	56	43¢	$24	0x269fdb…
11-08 01:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	36	36¢	$13	0x672a84…
11-08 00:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	59	97¢	$57	0x2a3fa9…
11-08 00:56:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0xaf8c9e…
11-08 00:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	74	98¢	$72	0x05defa…
11-08 00:50:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0xb79dba…
11-08 00:49:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0xc5385d…
11-08 00:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x0642e1…
11-08 00:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd2e2d9…
11-08 00:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0xe1f403…
11-08 00:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	42	69¢	$29	0xad9aef…
11-08 00:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	31	55¢	$17	0x51e374…
11-08 00:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xa4e553…
11-08 00:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x17968a…
11-08 00:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x70e63a…
11-08 00:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	26	62¢	$16	0x37ac9e…
11-06 02:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0xb4834f…
11-06 02:57:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0x96989c…
11-06 02:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0x8b2e16…
11-06 02:45:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	21	36¢	$8	0xdbe58d…
11-06 02:31:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x1ca237…
11-06 02:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	41	84¢	$34	0xb53f20…
11-06 02:15:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	41	27¢	$11	0x8f99d4…
11-06 02:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	304	96¢	$292	0xc88697…
11-06 02:10:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	304	33¢	$99	0xbf1d05…
11-06 02:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	241	37¢	$90	0x2842aa…
11-06 01:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	114	35¢	$40	0xa6fbce…
11-06 01:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	SELL	79	2¢	$2	0x87452d…
11-06 01:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0xa1bbf8…
11-06 01:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	44	39¢	$17	0x0defad…
11-06 01:47:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	249	78¢	$193	0xd1a88e…
11-06 01:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	249	40¢	$100	0xb84c4b…
11-06 01:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	136	33¢	$45	0xac990f…
11-06 01:35:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xec3a0e…
11-06 01:26:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	88	28¢	$25	0xf1282c…
11-06 01:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	88	17¢	$15	0x35e16d…
10-30 03:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xd16ccd…
10-30 03:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0xdd068d…
10-30 03:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xafe4eb…
10-30 03:15:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	32	28¢	$9	0x4cbaae…
10-30 03:10:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	38	34¢	$13	0x430e56…
10-30 03:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x3f55ab…
10-30 02:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xb9b1cf…
10-30 02:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0x1a9b5a…
10-30 02:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x24d0cd…
10-30 02:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	33	33¢	$11	0xf0b67b…
10-30 02:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x0618b1…
10-30 02:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	32	37¢	$12	0xd6a00f…
10-30 02:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	24	50¢	$12	0xd6b167…
10-30 02:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	24	33¢	$8	0x043f93…
10-30 02:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	73	87¢	$63	0xbf0440…
10-30 02:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0x497d22…
10-30 02:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xbd86ff…
10-30 02:17:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	68	57¢	$39	0x5abbee…
10-30 02:16:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	68	19¢	$13	0x7aa394…
10-30 02:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	42	4¢	$2	0x05f557…
10-30 02:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	42	36¢	$15	0xd15842…
10-30 02:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	59	50¢	$30	0x1563f9…
10-30 02:05:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x69326c…
10-30 02:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	48	23¢	$11	0xb16539…
10-28 03:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	23	99¢	$22	0xee2d22…
10-28 03:11:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x826f35…
10-28 02:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	61	90¢	$55	0x9ddf4a…
10-28 02:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	61	36¢	$22	0xbae0f3…
10-28 02:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	63	70¢	$44	0x652bf0…
10-28 02:45:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	63	38¢	$24	0xb4c821…
10-28 02:40:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0x390094…
10-28 02:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	SELL	109	76¢	$83	0x766597…
10-28 02:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	109	35¢	$38	0xbdb08a…
10-28 02:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	66	53¢	$35	0x4c86ed…
10-28 02:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	SELL	198	89¢	$176	0xd623c6…
10-28 02:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	198	49¢	$97	0xecbbbe…
10-28 02:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	185	25¢	$46	0xc1c3cc…
10-28 02:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xc9ba48…
10-27 02:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	33	91¢	$30	0x84c21a…
10-27 02:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x23e3c8…
10-27 02:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	44	1¢	$0	0x48132f…
10-27 02:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0x994a14…