Crafty-Termination — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

5,128

lifetime

Volume

$1.33K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-13

last 05-31 15:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

45% 0% $-4

Crypto

39% 0% $-2

Sports

12% — —

Politics

4% 0% $-0

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 251 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 58k on march 14	40	$39	23,989	14,769	+9,220	open	—	03-14 18:00
will the fed decide differently in the next three decisions decjanmar	102	$32	10,823	10,823	+0	open	—	03-17 05:51
will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on march 10	73	$32	11,210	11,210	+0	open	—	03-10 08:16
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	24	$30	10,244	10,244	+0	open	—	03-09 01:17
will the ecb announce a 25 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	74	$25	9,049	9,049	+0	open	—	03-18 21:39
ethereum above 1500 on march 14	135	$24	19,166	4,360	+14,805	open	—	03-14 13:40
ethereum above 1500 on march 16	42	$23	7,798	7,798	+0	open	—	03-15 03:31
bitcoin above 84k on march 11	23	$20	7,747	7,747	+0	open	—	03-11 02:44
bitcoin above 78k on march 10	8	$18	9,000	9,000	+0	open	—	03-10 00:23
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	13	$18	8,817	8,817	+0	open	—	03-04 11:35
will sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	49	$17	6,520	6,520	+0	open	—	02-15 17:21
will italy win the 2026 world baseball classic	3	$16	1,800	435	+1,365	open	—	03-17 02:48
ethereum above 2055 on march 31 2026 12pm et	5	$16	38	38	+0	open	—	03-31 15:29
bank of japan decreases interest rates after march 2026 meeting	37	$15	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	03-14 20:27
will the bank of canada announce a 50 bps decrease at the march meeting	54	$14	4,667	4,667	+0	open	—	03-15 16:33
ethereum above 2040 on march 31 2026 12pm et	4	$12	125	125	+0	open	—	03-31 15:30
bitcoin above 64k on march 16	29	$12	5,372	5,272	+100	open	—	03-15 13:23
will g2 esports win first stand 2026	41	$12	6,042	3,078	+2,964	open	—	03-22 16:32
ethereum above 2500 on march 11	6	$12	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	03-10 19:10
bitcoin above 74k on april 4	5	$12	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	04-03 16:16
bitcoin above 60k on march 18	19	$12	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	03-18 00:20
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	226	$12	3,863	3,963	-100	open	—	02-24 20:36
ethereum above 2030 on march 30 2026 7pm et	2	$12	18	18	+0	open	—	03-30 22:48
will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	60	$11	4,175	4,175	+0	open	—	03-17 22:36
will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the march meeting	152	$11	3,856	3,856	+0	open	—	03-18 23:41
will korea win the 2026 world baseball classic	8	$10	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	03-14 03:08
bitcoin above 58k on march 16	9	$10	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	03-14 21:40
ethereum above 1500 on march 13	37	$10	5,190	2,474	+2,716	open	—	03-13 13:25
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	50	$10	4,135	3,844	+292	open	—	02-26 16:11
will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	3	$9	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	03-14 01:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-31 15:19:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xdbe889…
05-31 11:28:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0xf40668…
05-31 10:57:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	925	0¢	$1	0x881bc9…
05-27 22:17:43	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xba31ee…
05-27 19:05:55	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd815fa…
05-27 15:22:07	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	SELL	745	0¢	$1	0x6dc163…
05-27 15:04:25	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xebfba7…
05-27 13:00:15	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	SELL	250	0¢	$0	0x99c5ac…
05-27 07:14:32	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	SELL	696	0¢	$1	0x4cf6bd…
05-26 18:13:20	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	SELL	304	0¢	$1	0x765bae…
05-26 15:59:32	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x8946ba…
05-26 15:47:30	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0x1f51f9…
05-26 14:38:15	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x255ed0…
05-26 14:29:37	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	0¢	$0	0x136e21…
05-26 14:24:08	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	808	0¢	$1	0xc594af…
05-16 13:50:13	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	958	0¢	$1	0xccb332…
05-16 02:23:02	Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?	Yes	BUY	995	0¢	$1	0x586d86…
05-15 20:50:30	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0x949713…
05-15 20:25:18	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	790	0¢	$1	0xb57792…
05-15 20:13:40	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x94749f…
05-15 19:47:33	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	122	0¢	$0	0x7333be…
05-15 19:39:58	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	0¢	$0	0xdd05b4…
05-15 19:24:55	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf174e3…
05-15 17:05:44	Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa0c556…
05-15 14:25:39	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0xe55d33…
05-15 07:15:42	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xedbe14…
05-14 02:17:15	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x996701…
05-14 01:43:18	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	No	BUY	34	0¢	$0	0x8fac1a…
05-14 01:41:05	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x337ef4…
05-14 01:11:37	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	No	BUY	766	0¢	$1	0xfd19fc…
05-13 05:55:15	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb105f5…
05-13 01:48:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf24742…
05-12 22:02:22	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x347fc7…
05-12 18:18:33	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	886	0¢	$1	0xd9fa43…
05-12 16:34:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x2a09c0…
05-12 07:16:26	Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x2f1d0c…
05-12 00:46:30	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	29	0¢	$0	0xebea8e…
05-12 00:20:35	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x183952…
05-12 00:06:59	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0x0b36ed…
05-12 00:06:57	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0x050f58…
05-11 10:42:15	Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	Yes	SELL	184	0¢	$0	0x84dc32…
05-11 10:41:15	Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$0	0x047752…
05-11 06:11:17	UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x49585c…
05-11 02:46:31	Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0xcef3cc…
05-11 02:44:54	Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$0	0xaf5283…
05-10 20:13:07	Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x2c2ac5…
05-10 19:29:53	Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	Yes	SELL	236	0¢	$0	0x58255b…
05-10 01:58:26	Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc547b2…
05-08 08:26:12	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9a3d59…
05-05 19:36:24	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x711385…
05-05 18:07:34	Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x7d36d9…
05-05 17:07:28	Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe96cbb…
05-05 15:18:12	Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc9b0d8…
05-05 10:34:36	Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x3a7f28…
05-04 15:28:48	Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf2cabc…
05-03 17:32:56	Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	393	0¢	$1	0xbed283…
05-03 16:40:40	Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x79fe01…
05-03 16:17:50	Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	107	0¢	$0	0x9e5bba…
05-02 19:41:44	Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	334	0¢	$0	0xe69c70…
05-02 14:32:48	Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb44889…
05-02 02:39:26	Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	666	0¢	$1	0x82bf00…
05-01 09:08:58	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	839	0¢	$1	0x191e77…
05-01 09:07:18	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	161	0¢	$0	0xa4ddc2…
05-01 08:06:14	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x05807c…
05-01 04:22:40	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5cc97c…
05-01 03:49:32	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc470f5…
05-01 03:32:40	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	Yes	SELL	800	0¢	$1	0xe6b5f9…
05-01 03:32:06	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x72614d…
05-01 02:19:52	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	213	0¢	$0	0x9a5505…
05-01 01:00:28	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	392	0¢	$0	0x9ec609…
05-01 00:59:40	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	516	0¢	$1	0x6b4daa…
05-01 00:45:42	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x893fc5…
05-01 00:45:42	Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x139207…
05-01 00:39:42	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x8e973a…
05-01 00:35:30	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x4ae140…
05-01 00:33:50	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	90	0¢	$0	0xb1c5c6…
05-01 00:31:32	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x7d60b9…
05-01 00:23:14	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x595a08…
04-30 23:54:02	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xd3edb6…
04-30 23:49:16	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbcb4e1…
04-30 23:44:44	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x12446d…
04-30 23:26:16	Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	126	0¢	$0	0xa915a6…
04-30 22:52:20	Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x617161…
04-30 22:09:56	Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	490	0¢	$0	0xaea4ec…
04-30 21:39:46	Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	95	0¢	$0	0xa0b64e…
04-30 20:33:00	Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	SELL	469	0¢	$0	0x68a374…
04-30 19:42:08	Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x3eab6a…
04-30 19:00:44	Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	860	0¢	$1	0x5ba6bc…
04-30 18:45:38	Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	140	0¢	$0	0xd1410f…
04-30 18:06:16	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	879	0¢	$1	0x15613a…
04-30 16:11:32	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x899fc5…
04-30 15:25:04	Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0xce931a…
04-30 14:37:42	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xe5c653…
04-30 14:37:42	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xceefb9…
04-30 14:37:42	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x6475c3…
04-30 14:37:42	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x0f3a18…
04-30 14:37:40	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x067f6e…
04-30 14:37:38	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x4df3fa…
04-30 14:37:36	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	0¢	$0	0xfeee35…
04-30 14:26:50	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	0¢	$0	0xf60657…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	271	$31.4K	25,342	05-03 14:11
Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81	241	$2.48K	3,714	03-27 20:38
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	221	$16.9K	5,996	05-28 19:06
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	210	$35.5K	1,348	05-29 21:27
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	193	$7.38K	6,825	05-29 06:29
Candid-Sneeze 0x8646…ed78	193	$1.64K	3,162	04-30 09:01
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	189	$299.1K	6,490	05-30 12:59
Well-Documented-Hit 0x30ce…6b2b	183	$861.0K	29,606	04-23 01:12