Crafty-Termination — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$57

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

47.8%

Resolved

738

Trades

11,376

lifetime

Volume

$2.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-13

last 09-02 10:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 152 days

Categories

Other

51% 33% +$39

Crypto

23% 24% -$11

Politics

13% 42% +$32

Sports

12% 27% -$2

Tech

1% 33% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 33% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026?	Yes		+0	-$1	0¢	$0	+$1	06-04 03:03
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?	Yes	—	+0	-$1	0¢	$0	+$1	08-14 19:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 58k on march 14	40	$39	23,989	14,769	+9,220	Yes	-$9	03-14 18:00
will the fed decide differently in the next three decisions decjanmar	102	$32	10,823	10,823	+0	No	+$11	03-17 05:51
will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on march 10	73	$32	11,210	11,210	+0	No	+$10	03-10 08:16
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	24	$30	10,244	10,244	+0	Yes	+$9	03-09 01:17
will the ecb announce a 25 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	74	$25	9,049	9,049	+0	No	+$7	03-18 21:39
ethereum above 1500 on march 14	135	$24	19,166	4,360	+14,805	Yes	-$14	03-14 13:40
ethereum above 1500 on march 16	42	$23	7,798	7,798	+0	Yes	+$8	03-15 03:31
bitcoin above 84k on march 11	23	$20	7,747	7,747	+0	No	+$5	03-11 02:44
bitcoin above 78k on march 10	8	$18	9,000	9,000	+0	No	$0	03-10 00:23
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	13	$18	8,817	8,817	+0	No	$0	03-04 11:35
will sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	49	$17	6,520	6,520	+0	No	+$4	02-15 17:21
will italy win the 2026 world baseball classic	3	$16	1,800	435	+1,365	No	+$12	03-17 02:48
ethereum above 2055 on march 31 2026 12pm et	5	$16	38	38	+0	No	+$6	03-31 15:29
bank of japan decreases interest rates after march 2026 meeting	37	$15	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$5	03-14 20:27
will the bank of canada announce a 50 bps decrease at the march meeting	54	$14	4,667	4,667	+0	No	+$5	03-15 16:33
ethereum above 2040 on march 31 2026 12pm et	4	$12	125	125	+0	Yes	+$2	03-31 15:30
bitcoin above 64k on march 16	29	$12	5,372	5,272	+100	Yes	+$1	03-15 13:23
will g2 esports win first stand 2026	41	$12	6,042	3,078	+2,964	No	+$0	03-22 16:32
ethereum above 2500 on march 11	6	$12	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$0	03-10 19:10
bitcoin above 74k on april 4	5	$12	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$0	04-03 16:16
bitcoin above 60k on march 18	19	$12	6,000	6,000	+0	Yes	$0	03-18 00:20
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	226	$12	3,863	3,963	-100	No	+$4	02-24 20:36
ethereum above 2030 on march 30 2026 7pm et	2	$12	18	18	+0	Yes	+$2	03-30 22:48
will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	60	$11	4,175	4,175	+0	No	+$2	03-17 22:36
will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the march meeting	152	$11	3,856	3,856	+0	No	+$3	03-18 23:41
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	12	$10	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$0	04-28 22:08
will korea win the 2026 world baseball classic	8	$10	5,000	5,000	+0	No	$0	03-14 03:08
bitcoin above 58k on march 16	9	$10	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	$0	03-14 21:40
ethereum above 1500 on march 13	37	$10	5,190	2,474	+2,716	Yes	-$1	03-13 13:25
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	50	$10	4,135	3,844	+292	No	+$1	02-26 16:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-02 10:00:21	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	Yes	SELL	16	0¢	$0	0xe8f53e…
09-02 10:00:21	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be at least 3.0%?	Yes	SELL	16	0¢	$0	0x03113c…
09-01 14:07:39	Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x805f48…
08-31 14:26:03	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0xc07f66…
08-30 16:21:00	Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbf4196…
08-29 15:10:00	Will Eintracht Frankfurt be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0x71a761…
08-28 13:40:39	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	229	0¢	$0	0xc5902d…
08-25 15:11:43	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	709	0¢	$1	0xcd5603…
08-25 13:50:30	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xe75fb0…
08-25 13:36:03	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x3921e1…
08-25 13:35:16	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x771740…
08-25 13:34:28	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x09a6cc…
08-25 13:27:33	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x6d3da1…
08-25 13:26:51	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xe1b78b…
08-25 13:26:03	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x444556…
08-25 13:23:57	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xf9422b…
08-25 13:23:07	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x76bb86…
08-25 13:21:28	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x947a09…
08-25 13:02:27	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x119711…
08-25 13:02:09	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x4dca04…
08-25 12:35:04	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xe98c4e…
08-25 11:53:54	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x178656…
08-25 10:56:43	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	249	0¢	$0	0x3b1fed…
08-23 17:57:16	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	SELL	563	0¢	$1	0x02e242…
08-22 23:57:42	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xf8c34d…
08-22 21:52:46	Will The Royal House of the Sultanate of Pagayawan (ROHOSUPA) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe1b775…
08-22 21:44:03	Will The Royal House of the Sultanate of Pagayawan (ROHOSUPA) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x7ff441…
08-22 21:40:30	Will Eintracht Frankfurt be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x9e6ecf…
08-22 21:32:42	Will Eintracht Frankfurt be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	BUY	79	0¢	$0	0x9c152c…
08-22 21:29:49	Will Legacy Win the CS2 EWC 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x8eeaec…
08-22 21:27:12	Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf9ddaa…
08-22 21:27:12	Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x57d565…
08-22 21:27:10	Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf3f1ae…
08-22 21:27:10	Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xc45922…
08-22 21:27:10	Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x5869f9…
08-22 21:27:10	Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x110737…
08-22 21:22:22	Will George Pickens play for Las Vegas Raiders in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	44	0¢	$0	0xf840cf…
08-22 21:19:54	Will George Pickens play for Las Vegas Raiders in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x0646a7…
08-22 21:19:49	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x1d5111…
08-22 21:19:33	Will George Pickens play for Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0xb22a34…
08-22 21:19:33	Will George Pickens play for Las Vegas Raiders in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	39	0¢	$0	0x78224d…
08-22 21:19:30	Will A Just Russia win the next Amur Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x24c850…
08-22 21:18:54	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be at least 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x35a214…
08-22 21:18:52	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x266ecf…
08-22 21:18:30	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	0¢	$0	0xd9ca75…
08-22 21:18:28	Will Chris Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x128308…
08-22 17:11:01	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x72e726…
08-22 03:17:01	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	447	0¢	$0	0x1f8f80…
08-22 02:23:45	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x1398b1…
08-22 02:12:49	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	547	0¢	$1	0x6dc3ef…
08-21 20:10:48	Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x21f348…
08-21 17:44:36	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbad8f2…
08-21 16:27:07	Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf7a5cd…
08-21 00:34:22	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0xecfb15…
08-20 12:12:33	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	747	0¢	$1	0xb7f8c4…
08-20 12:12:31	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0xe08cd0…
08-20 12:12:31	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xcf01fa…
08-20 12:12:31	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	135	0¢	$0	0x888626…
08-20 12:12:31	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x1c3541…
08-19 12:13:09	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	209	0¢	$0	0x1f0063…
08-19 08:48:21	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	90	0¢	$0	0x2e6f7c…
08-19 08:30:27	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x8428fb…
08-19 00:12:45	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	62	0¢	$0	0xd29a6a…
08-18 17:40:49	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	153	0¢	$0	0x7d57d5…
08-18 16:48:06	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe3e30c…
08-18 16:48:03	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0xe41c8a…
08-18 16:48:00	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	34	0¢	$0	0xd96e96…
08-18 16:47:46	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe58960…
08-18 16:47:25	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	26	0¢	$0	0x350b6a…
08-18 16:47:10	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe6b96e…
08-18 16:45:33	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0xfd906f…
08-18 16:20:55	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	107	0¢	$0	0xfa3b51…
08-18 16:20:55	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x1bc4c4…
08-18 16:20:54	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0x058e01…
08-18 13:21:00	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xd2c8ac…
08-18 13:20:00	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x789753…
08-18 13:20:00	Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x577d73…
08-18 09:05:58	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	68	0¢	$0	0x892c60…
08-17 22:40:21	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xa62e4d…
08-17 19:13:40	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xc16e06…
08-17 17:49:31	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x284617…
08-17 15:37:31	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x552482…
08-17 15:36:28	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x0134f2…
08-17 15:36:06	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x9d4360…
08-17 15:00:21	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	460	0¢	$0	0xcd614c…
08-17 14:09:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	771	0¢	$2	0x5b2721…
08-17 13:08:34	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	620	0¢	$1	0xc1a0e1…
08-17 13:03:48	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0x9302c2…
08-17 13:00:45	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	62	0¢	$0	0xbcf8c6…
08-17 12:58:36	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x887b59…
08-17 12:55:45	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x479d00…
08-17 12:54:48	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x931e16…
08-17 09:12:13	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	0¢	$0	0xc39fe4…
08-17 08:58:21	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x935781…
08-17 08:18:43	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x528f9a…
08-17 08:17:09	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xdeb084…
08-17 07:06:55	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0x9b685d…
08-17 06:17:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x95c54d…
08-17 06:17:12	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa8b6cd…
08-17 06:17:10	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa156c0…