Wry-Dysfunction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$43

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

53.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$972

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$49

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 05-05 01:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 25% -$83

Other

8% 75% +$40

Politics

3% — —

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-05).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		-41	-$33	94¢	$-38	-$5	05-05 01:45
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No		-11	-$10	97¢	$-11	$0	05-05 01:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	12	$264	251	251	+0	Up	+$44	05-05 01:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	4	$153	487	487	+0	Up	+$53	05-05 01:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	16	$135	604	601	+3	Up	-$25	05-05 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	4	$104	680	62	+617	Up	-$46	05-05 01:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	3	$54	275	275	+0	Down	-$46	05-05 01:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	2	$48	125	125	+0	Up	-$2	05-05 01:38
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$33	0	41	-41	open	—	05-05 01:45
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:45 UTC	2	$30	46	0	+46	Down	-$30	04-12 20:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:40 UTC	1	$26	26	0	+26	Up	+$0	04-12 20:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	1	$20	34	0	+34	Yes	+$14	05-05 01:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	3	$18	101	101	+0	Down	-$12	05-05 01:58
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	4	$17	122	17	+105	Up	-$13	05-05 01:43
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	1	$15	55	0	+55	No	+$40	04-12 20:40
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	1	$15	27	0	+27	No	-$15	04-12 20:41
will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	04-12 20:52
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	1	$10	0	11	-11	open	—	05-05 01:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	2	$9	8	8	+0	Down	-$1	05-05 01:40
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	1	$5	3,448	0	+3,448	Up	-$5	05-05 01:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 01:58:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	101	3¢	$3	0xb6114a…
05-05 01:57:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	70	14¢	$10	0x065faa…
05-05 01:57:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x38200f…
05-05 01:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	411	4¢	$17	0xd0548f…
05-05 01:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x1c7ee0…
05-05 01:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x47487d…
05-05 01:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x12ce69…
05-05 01:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xdc3f12…
05-05 01:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x88bd93…
05-05 01:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x19fb41…
05-05 01:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xd72876…
05-05 01:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0x2126a6…
05-05 01:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x747ed5…
05-05 01:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	113	19¢	$21	0x8e745c…
05-05 01:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x3ad647…
05-05 01:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x66236e…
05-05 01:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xa3c8d2…
05-05 01:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	27	21¢	$6	0x423912…
05-05 01:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xa79c94…
05-05 01:45:12	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	41	82¢	$33	0x7b0e31…
05-05 01:45:08	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0xfa128b…
05-05 01:43:38	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x0a445b…
05-05 01:43:18	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0x038d39…
05-05 01:43:14	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	17	11¢	$2	0xa37c09…
05-05 01:41:02	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x8d9e91…
05-05 01:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xb8a8fb…
05-05 01:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x45eca7…
05-05 01:39:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3,448	0¢	$5	0xb5048d…
05-05 01:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	SELL	125	18¢	$23	0x15a773…
05-05 01:36:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0xa71ced…
05-05 01:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	SELL	275	1¢	$4	0xa95f53…
05-05 01:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	203	12¢	$25	0x899452…
05-05 01:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0xf1c73c…
05-05 01:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x744895…
05-05 01:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x7b7b08…
05-05 01:28:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	46	53¢	$25	0x1d89e5…
05-05 01:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xd9702c…
05-05 01:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	89	47¢	$42	0xac7d00…
05-05 01:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0xbc65ad…
05-05 01:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	32	73¢	$23	0xe76780…
05-05 01:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0x8b3f64…
05-05 01:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x19a2df…
05-05 01:27:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x459170…
05-05 01:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	68	73¢	$50	0x84038a…
05-05 01:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x0653ff…
05-05 01:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	550	5¢	$25	0x47947d…
05-05 01:21:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	67	37¢	$25	0x97880f…
05-05 01:21:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	SELL	62	46¢	$29	0x339969…
05-05 01:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0xe81d84…
05-05 01:19:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x33385f…
05-05 01:18:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	SELL	302	26¢	$77	0x47b010…
05-05 01:17:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	SELL	185	14¢	$26	0x3a0e3e…
05-05 01:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	227	11¢	$25	0xb3181c…
05-05 01:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	260	10¢	$25	0x9a827c…
04-12 20:52:07	will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x86465d…
04-12 20:45:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xc144f0…
04-12 20:45:27	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x0a01a1…
04-12 20:44:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xe4d822…
04-12 20:41:53	Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x947836…
04-12 20:40:59	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	55	27¢	$15	0x6170cb…