Plain-Underestimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

47.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$83

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-08 09:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 40% $-3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	1	$17	0	18	-18	open	—	05-08 09:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	1	$14	0	14	-14	open	—	05-08 08:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	2	$14	11	11	+0	Down	+$3	05-08 05:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	1	$13	0	13	-13	open	—	05-08 09:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	1	$8	0	8	-8	Down	$-1	05-07 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	1	$8	0	8	-8	Down	$-1	05-08 06:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	Up	$-5	05-08 01:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$1	05-08 01:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 09:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x61deb0…
05-08 09:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x632a88…
05-08 08:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x5b29c2…
05-08 06:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	SELL	8	92¢	$8	0xb531e4…
05-08 05:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	SELL	11	78¢	$9	0x6bda9d…
05-08 05:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0xa33d4b…
05-08 01:37:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x5b2e40…
05-08 01:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xb822dc…
05-07 21:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	8	93¢	$8	0xea5fc5…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	8	$2.46K	104	05-08 09:56
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	7	$8.89K	95	05-08 09:54
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	7	$2.90K	23	05-08 09:50
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	6	$979	92	05-08 09:50
Novel-Morbid 0x4766…5a03	5	$675	62	05-08 09:50
Humble-Outcome 0x9a1d…86d6	5	$641	19	05-08 09:11
Svelte-Chicory 0x9412…0cd0	4	$508	24	05-08 09:15
Deserted-Lab 0x1288…8210	3	$979	4	05-08 09:54