Plain-Underestimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$194

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.8%

Resolved

172

Trades

1,613

lifetime

Volume

$16.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 05-10 14:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 62% $-194

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 401 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	4	$211	150	150	+0	open	—	04-29 01:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	7	$194	120	110	+10	open	—	04-29 01:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	12	$184	188	182	+6	open	—	04-27 07:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	17	$180	172	167	+5	open	—	04-27 06:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	5	$179	175	170	+5	open	—	04-27 06:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	2	$161	111	109	+2	open	—	04-27 06:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	4	$160	134	67	+67	open	—	04-29 02:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	14	$154	192	192	+0	open	—	04-29 02:28
btc updown 5m 1774593000	33	$123	409	0	+409	open	—	03-27 06:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	3	$114	67	67	+0	open	—	04-28 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	3	$111	112	112	+0	open	—	04-29 02:02
btc updown 5m 1774106100	59	$111	246	0	+246	open	—	03-21 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	3	$110	76	76	+0	open	—	04-28 21:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	4	$108	79	77	+2	open	—	04-27 11:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	10	$108	103	56	+47	open	—	04-29 02:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	3	$107	71	69	+2	open	—	04-27 21:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	2	$107	80	80	+0	open	—	05-03 02:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	2	$106	76	76	+0	open	—	05-02 23:12
btc updown 5m 1774091400	32	$106	155	0	+155	open	—	03-21 11:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	2	$106	74	74	+0	open	—	05-02 02:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	3	$105	81	79	+2	open	—	04-27 20:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	3	$103	79	77	+2	open	—	04-27 22:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	6	$102	63	63	+0	open	—	05-03 02:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	2	$101	72	72	+0	open	—	05-03 00:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	5	$100	87	87	+0	open	—	05-02 03:34
btc updown 5m 1774595700	24	$100	185	0	+185	open	—	03-27 07:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	2	$97	71	71	+0	open	—	05-01 20:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	2	$97	75	75	+0	open	—	05-02 02:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	2	$97	66	66	+0	Up	+$16	05-04 20:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	2	$97	62	62	+0	Down	+$16	05-04 21:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 14:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	17	73¢	$13	0x0b6531…
05-10 14:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	61¢	$11	0x240cde…
05-10 14:32:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	18	76¢	$13	0xd70fa4…
05-10 14:32:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	18	59¢	$10	0xcd25b6…
05-10 14:17:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x4ecb92…
05-10 14:17:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x7bcdd0…
05-10 14:17:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x6e35e3…
05-10 14:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0xd6e5f9…
05-10 14:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0x3a3751…
05-10 14:16:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x6a5250…
05-10 14:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	15	79¢	$12	0x418527…
05-10 14:11:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x9eac43…
05-10 13:32:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	18	68¢	$12	0x639951…
05-10 13:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xc0eb21…
05-10 13:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0xe42718…
05-10 13:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	22	46¢	$10	0xccb8c4…
05-10 13:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	22	48¢	$11	0x5cd813…
05-10 12:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	18	59¢	$10	0xabf60e…
05-10 12:26:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0xa444bf…
05-10 12:22:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	18	59¢	$10	0x75249a…
05-10 12:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	SELL	16	81¢	$13	0x2bb566…
05-10 12:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	17	63¢	$10	0xf3dc5a…
05-10 11:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	7	63¢	$4	0xf9a346…
05-10 11:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	15	63¢	$10	0x8d7c3c…
05-10 11:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0xca6fd9…
05-10 11:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	19	71¢	$13	0xe94b72…
05-10 11:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	19	55¢	$10	0x0511f1…
05-10 10:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	21	66¢	$14	0x6a0aee…
05-10 10:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0x135bf7…
05-10 10:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	16	77¢	$13	0xea8df9…
05-10 10:32:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x13a0f1…
05-10 10:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xf76864…
05-10 10:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$11	0x565cd0…
05-10 10:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	17	62¢	$10	0xdb89c9…
05-10 09:31:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	22	47¢	$10	0x8f17d6…
05-10 09:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	22	49¢	$11	0x44e598…
05-10 08:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	16	85¢	$14	0x976fac…
05-10 08:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	63¢	$10	0x6328dc…
05-10 08:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	18	69¢	$12	0xaa58fe…
05-10 08:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x0769ca…
05-10 07:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	SELL	23	60¢	$14	0x19b010…
05-10 07:46:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	23	45¢	$10	0xa27d81…
05-10 07:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x6db831…
05-10 05:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	26	71¢	$18	0x46c2d4…
05-10 05:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	26	61¢	$16	0x2c08d8…
05-10 05:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	28	36¢	$10	0x6938be…
05-10 05:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x2b4b44…
05-10 04:17:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	29	56¢	$16	0x219e1c…
05-10 04:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	29	54¢	$16	0x17dda6…
05-10 03:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	23	15¢	$4	0x6d3d5a…
05-10 03:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0x0f9546…
05-10 03:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	30	38¢	$11	0x9b2557…
05-10 03:48:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0xd92b54…
05-09 21:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x8bb19b…
05-09 21:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0xa9522f…
05-09 21:17:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	32	49¢	$16	0xe1c096…
05-09 20:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	30	45¢	$13	0x69a093…
05-09 20:57:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x08d28b…
05-09 20:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	28	85¢	$24	0xbcc71f…
05-09 20:42:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	28	55¢	$15	0xd16369…
05-09 20:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x52c20d…
05-09 20:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0x453616…
05-09 20:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	30¢	$1	0x08f0c2…
05-09 20:32:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	31	50¢	$16	0xa21263…
05-09 19:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x10f8ea…
05-09 19:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0xd9a1f6…
05-09 19:21:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	22	72¢	$16	0x5a75c8…
05-09 19:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xf0d100…
05-09 19:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0xf0c908…
05-09 19:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0xe6e6ba…
05-09 19:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x12206f…
05-09 19:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	23	67¢	$15	0x595333…
05-09 19:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	SELL	28	31¢	$9	0x700343…
05-09 19:07:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	28	55¢	$15	0x2720fb…
05-09 19:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	26	9¢	$2	0xc08abf…
05-09 19:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0xbd8a9b…
05-09 18:53:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x498d38…
05-09 18:53:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x20ecfd…
05-09 18:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	24	64¢	$16	0x4a8fad…
05-09 18:47:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	18	64¢	$12	0x0eb7b5…
05-09 18:47:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0x7f2e9b…
05-09 18:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0x7ceb1f…
05-09 18:42:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0x8e8f97…
05-09 18:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	19	60¢	$12	0x5ae86a…
05-09 18:31:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x305bdb…
05-09 18:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x3690df…
05-09 18:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	11	59¢	$6	0xb230e0…
05-09 18:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xf1a616…
05-09 18:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0xdf212b…
05-09 18:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xc19526…
05-09 18:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xb96d91…
05-09 18:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	28	56¢	$16	0x163446…
05-09 17:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	25	77¢	$19	0xfe98d4…
05-09 17:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0xdb22ee…
05-09 16:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	SELL	31	35¢	$11	0xbb454f…
05-09 16:47:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	31	50¢	$16	0xeac5d9…
05-09 16:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	27	65¢	$18	0x30c312…
05-09 16:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	27	57¢	$15	0x734cff…
05-09 15:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	31	26¢	$8	0x9e4a91…
05-09 15:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	31	50¢	$16	0x02112b…