Exalted-Mantel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

78.6%

Resolved

354

Trades

726

lifetime

Volume

$9.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-27 11:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Other

73% 86% +$3

Crypto

16% 77% +$0

Politics

7% 61% $0

Sports

2% 69% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 80% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		+9	$9	100¢	$9	$0	10-27 11:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	4	$109	54	54	+0	Yes	+$0	05-08 13:38
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 9?	9	$77	38	38	+0	No	+$0	05-09 08:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25?	4	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	05-25 05:51
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25?	3	$65	33	33	+0	No	+$0	05-24 23:57
will the total number of tsa passengers for april 6 april 12 be between 16500000 and 17000000	5	$65	33	33	+0	No	$0	04-13 11:00
highest temperature in shanghai on april 21 2026 20c	3	$63	31	31	+0	No	+$0	04-21 07:01
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 12?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-12 17:49
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 25?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-25 05:46
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-17 20:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 6?	5	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-05 13:29
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on May 28?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-28 05:46
solana above 70 on april 15	3	$57	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	04-15 12:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	2	$57	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	05-27 05:50
Will Robert Neuman win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-18 06:13
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 27?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	$0	05-26 20:38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 16?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-16 00:19
ethereum above 2600 on april 20	3	$56	34	22	+11	No	$0	04-20 01:09
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 10?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	05-10 03:05
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May 26?	6	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-26 21:28
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on May 6?	6	$55	33	22	+12	No	+$0	05-05 21:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 28?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-28 05:47
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 26?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	05-26 03:54
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 25?	6	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-25 16:24
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	4	$53	27	27	+0	No	$0	04-30 13:39
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-17 08:42
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 14?	6	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-14 08:02
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 19?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-18 02:28
Will Chad Chig Martin win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?	5	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	05-18 16:29
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 17?	4	$51	25	25	+0	Yes	$0	05-17 05:05
highest temperature in hong kong on april 19 2026 25c	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-19 14:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 11:09:03	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x0b5d33…
10-26 05:46:42	Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2816c2…
10-09 10:53:16	Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$10	0x6e203a…
10-03 09:36:51	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x65df36…
09-22 16:43:19	Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0x67d1fa…
09-11 15:25:33	Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1fe6d5…
09-11 15:24:19	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf10ac1…
09-11 15:23:09	Will Bennett Stirtz win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x4043e9…
09-11 15:21:52	Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x3add91…
09-11 15:20:39	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$12	0x6a9f10…
09-11 15:19:27	Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xe31820…
09-07 05:24:06	Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x96af12…
08-31 20:56:07	Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcc2a27…
08-25 19:55:13	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xce8639…
08-08 12:26:34	Will Bennett Stirtz win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x6a3b84…
08-01 21:15:00	Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x685c49…
08-01 06:53:11	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9e818b…
07-25 22:52:00	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3850de…
07-19 15:34:06	Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x97fbff…
07-17 20:44:51	Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9e054b…
07-17 20:43:57	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xe8aabf…
07-17 20:43:07	Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x36897f…
07-15 17:20:55	Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0d5c63…
07-13 16:26:34	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x5f1c49…
07-07 13:44:32	Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdc2ad4…
07-07 13:42:29	Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x3c48b1…
07-03 10:44:49	Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1d7b85…
06-28 23:12:08	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x729055…
06-28 17:11:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x586281…
06-28 17:10:17	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x7ad785…
06-28 17:09:22	Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb755ff…
06-26 14:06:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9270b2…
06-20 19:08:23	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc26754…
06-05 18:59:27	Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xffe052…
05-28 05:48:45	Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x2c14bc…
05-28 05:47:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 28?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x1d7693…
05-28 05:46:56	Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on May 28?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xaf9b21…
05-27 09:28:41	Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on May 28?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xb22af0…
05-27 06:14:10	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 27?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xb19b51…
05-27 06:08:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 28?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x3262d0…
05-27 06:02:02	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xa63a65…
05-27 05:50:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$28	0x2a224d…
05-27 03:54:29	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x81bbad…
05-27 00:01:58	Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the May meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6fc16f…
05-26 23:01:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0x9d05c6…
05-26 22:21:17	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 27?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa32511…
05-26 21:28:37	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May 26?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x971369…
05-26 21:15:56	Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the May meeting?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xb50584…
05-26 21:09:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May 26?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8ff48b…
05-26 21:05:31	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May 26?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xb7fc07…
05-26 21:03:37	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May 26?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbb3d38…
05-26 21:03:02	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May 26?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xc518c7…
05-26 20:41:46	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on May 26?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$21	0xb3f7ea…
05-26 20:38:37	Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 27?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xd92a99…
05-26 17:41:13	Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 27?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x0cf603…
05-26 15:08:02	Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the May meeting?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x57f2ab…
05-26 11:06:00	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on May 26?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$21	0x80f672…
05-26 09:58:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 27?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$9	0x244dd7…
05-26 04:03:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x43e981…
05-26 03:54:59	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 26?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xf8d061…
05-26 00:19:26	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May 26?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x4ef1e4…
05-25 18:55:59	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 26?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x26d827…
05-25 16:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 25?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x264582…
05-25 16:14:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 25?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x75bee7…
05-25 16:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 25?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x2368a6…
05-25 16:09:33	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 25?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xd8d0ce…
05-25 16:09:33	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 25?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xacc18f…
05-25 12:47:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x02b420…
05-25 09:02:00	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 25?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x88d7ac…
05-25 07:27:49	Will Michele Boldrin win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x701822…
05-25 05:52:23	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C or below on May 25?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0xa67ccd…
05-25 05:51:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xf26092…
05-25 05:48:01	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$21	0x27ec24…
05-25 05:46:44	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 25?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xffe725…
05-25 05:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 25?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x4660e4…
05-25 00:21:12	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$21	0x6b6fae…
05-24 23:57:40	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xabc00e…
05-24 20:53:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C or below on May 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x9265b7…
05-24 20:16:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x378803…
05-24 18:52:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$9	0x28c5af…
05-24 18:49:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xa31d75…
05-24 13:29:25	Will Michele Boldrin win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x860ebf…
05-24 12:40:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8dd365…
05-24 12:35:08	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6eaaf5…
05-24 07:26:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xd47148…
05-24 06:13:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x01d8b0…
05-24 00:46:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xbea87c…
05-23 22:55:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 24?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xd45e45…
05-23 22:54:34	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 24?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x7df7a3…
05-23 20:04:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 24?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x994908…
05-23 01:53:39	Will Brent Barker be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x606e6b…
05-20 14:09:27	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xbad9fa…
05-20 12:42:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 20?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0x968671…
05-20 07:31:25	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xf002cd…
05-20 03:51:53	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x52fcba…
05-20 03:15:11	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x7993d7…
05-20 01:34:11	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x194b88…
05-19 21:57:35	Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 20?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xe3e4f2…
05-19 21:20:17	Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd4c37d…
05-19 17:18:31	Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x3eccd2…