Impressive-Kiwi — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.21K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

57.1%

Resolved

1,239

Trades

7,366

lifetime

Volume

$299.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$342

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 09:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 185 days

Categories

Other

73% 55% -$5,050

Crypto

14% 90% -$317

Politics

9% 33% +$395

Tech

3% 48% -$1,070

Sports

1% 30% -$174

Pop-Culture

0% 71% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 181 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+200	$142	70¢	$141	-$1	10-22 14:56
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	+121	$88	99¢	$119	+$31	10-01 19:29
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+100	$63	66¢	$66	+$3	10-26 13:58
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+50	$16	29¢	$14	-$1	10-24 09:26
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	+121	$33	1¢	$2	-$32	10-01 19:14
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	76¢	$0	+$0	09-20 02:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	31	$7.7K	4,060	4,060	+0	No	+$9	02-08 15:42
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	86	$7.1K	9,603	9,603	+0	No	+$938	09-02 20:04
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	78	$6.9K	6,197	6,167	+30	No	-$791	10-20 04:18
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	53	$6.7K	3,574	3,385	+189	No	+$20	01-25 13:46
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	40	$5.3K	3,840	3,840	+0	Yes	-$51	10-08 22:19
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	43	$4.6K	2,757	3,652	-895	Yes	+$741	02-08 16:44
Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	29	$4.4K	3,275	3,275	+0	open	—	10-23 10:45
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?	67	$4.3K	4,141	4,141	+0	Yes	-$370	10-08 22:20
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	36	$4.2K	2,236	1,993	+243	No	+$17	04-27 16:31
lacy and marlon beat gaming challenge by september 4 2026 1159 pm et	17	$4.1K	2,435	2,435	+0	No	-$93	09-03 21:57
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1?	55	$4.0K	2,964	2,964	+0	No	-$244	10-15 12:42
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	43	$4.0K	4,380	4,380	+0	Yes	-$321	10-08 20:15
will grand theft auto vi launch trailer get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1	26	$3.5K	2,713	2,713	+0	Yes	-$110	10-20 06:18
will bitcoin reach 110k in january 2026	48	$3.5K	1,853	1,880	-27	No	+$4	01-18 10:30
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	39	$3.4K	1,618	1,930	-312	No	-$9	01-26 10:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$3.4K	2,100	2,100	+0	No	-$21	05-01 07:53
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 50 and 55 million views in week 1?	61	$2.8K	2,198	2,198	+0	Yes	+$729	10-16 06:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	51	$2.5K	1,600	1,600	+0	No	-$27	05-04 14:36
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	38	$2.3K	1,792	1,792	+0	No	-$36	09-08 18:27
spl ahl nsr 2026 01 02 total 4pt5	3	$2.2K	1,123	1,122	+0	Over	+$25	01-02 19:00
spl ahl nsr 2026 01 02 total 2pt5	4	$2.2K	1,088	1,088	+0	Over	+$10	01-02 18:06
spl ahl nsr 2026 01 02 total 1pt5	5	$2.1K	1,079	1,078	+0	Over	+$10	01-02 17:56
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 480 499	8	$2.1K	1,065	1,065	+0	No	+$3	01-02 17:43
epl cry ful 2026 01 01 total 1pt5	12	$2.1K	1,070	1,069	+1	Over	+$13	01-01 19:23
spl njm kha 2026 01 02 total 3pt5	7	$2.1K	1,040	1,039	+1	Over	+$11	01-02 15:29
cs2 nvq allin 2026 01 03	10	$2.0K	1,010	1,009	+1	Team Novaq	+$12	01-03 12:01
val dfm1 ge1 2026 02 01	11	$1.9K	987	962	+25	DetonatioN FocusMe	+$16	02-01 10:48
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	35	$1.9K	1,551	1,551	+0	Yes	-$573	10-13 13:34
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	18	$1.9K	1,349	1,349	+0	Yes	+$63	09-10 06:53
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	3	$1.8K	910	910	+0	No	+$0	05-10 20:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 11:56:15	Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x9b03e1…
10-27 11:50:59	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$41	0x6dfddf…
10-27 09:00:56	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x6e54e0…
10-27 08:12:02	Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x64b364…
10-27 07:54:24	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xe94522…
10-27 07:52:12	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xb855e0…
10-27 07:52:12	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	75¢	$28	0x3124ca…
10-27 07:49:09	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x9f710e…
10-27 07:49:09	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x32a2d8…
10-27 07:48:57	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x50877e…
10-27 07:48:56	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x9adcf6…
10-27 07:48:48	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x9e0ca1…
10-27 07:37:05	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xe2a3f6…
10-27 07:35:56	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x517551…
10-27 07:15:38	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xe3f7fd…
10-27 07:15:38	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x5cbe0d…
10-27 00:30:24	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xc241f9…
10-26 23:09:26	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0x32b8c7…
10-26 21:37:21	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x6f4788…
10-26 21:14:39	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xce3f87…
10-26 20:53:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	110	35¢	$38	0xb33f52…
10-26 20:35:41	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x01dddf…
10-26 20:28:42	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0xb02237…
10-26 20:24:56	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0xaa92cf…
10-26 20:08:06	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	No	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xde6602…
10-26 19:56:32	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x635222…
10-26 19:11:45	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	No	SELL	41	1¢	$0	0x9206a9…
10-26 19:11:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	No	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x3f9de2…
10-26 19:10:18	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x61ea9c…
10-26 19:10:06	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	SELL	35	1¢	$0	0xe6fae0…
10-26 19:09:59	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	SELL	65	2¢	$2	0x5f2f3b…
10-26 19:06:32	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x464ca6…
10-26 18:48:48	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	38	39¢	$15	0x82b935…
10-26 16:55:56	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	46¢	$43	0xadb86f…
10-26 16:07:29	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	362	42¢	$152	0x26fa81…
10-26 13:58:35	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x21b4aa…
10-26 13:58:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xf0a727…
10-26 13:58:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xd6e453…
10-26 13:58:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xb7df35…
10-26 13:58:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x7bffc9…
10-26 13:58:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6012c5…
10-26 13:58:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xe22bb0…
10-26 13:58:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xcd03cd…
10-26 13:58:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x9367ed…
10-26 13:58:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x76af60…
10-26 13:58:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6a6cff…
10-26 13:58:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x564395…
10-26 13:58:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x49f9c5…
10-26 13:58:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x4811f5…
10-26 13:58:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x11c376…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x92a176…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0x84ddb4…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x826a6a…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x7fb872…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x5343f4…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x049668…
10-26 08:15:33	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x890e33…
10-26 07:54:21	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xe03c09…
10-26 06:05:12	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0xcc5d29…
10-26 05:39:02	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x39aa3c…
10-26 05:38:53	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4e806b…
10-26 05:38:41	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa0bdd5…
10-26 00:18:21	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x174b08…
10-25 23:01:23	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	17	83¢	$14	0xa1b349…
10-25 23:01:21	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	83	83¢	$69	0xd95969…
10-25 22:58:32	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x9e2f27…
10-25 22:27:54	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x37d1a2…
10-25 21:39:39	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xaed9fb…
10-25 19:17:35	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Dplus KIA	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x21f40b…
10-25 19:16:11	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xe23b43…
10-25 19:15:18	Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	Under	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x649bb0…
10-25 19:01:12	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	300	46¢	$138	0x7e7af3…
10-25 18:52:56	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	117	52¢	$61	0x7e730f…
10-25 18:51:26	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	33	52¢	$17	0xe5bdee…
10-25 18:39:11	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xfe7ff7…
10-25 18:39:11	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	28	46¢	$13	0x95989b…
10-25 18:39:06	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	120	46¢	$55	0xaabf54…
10-25 18:28:53	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0x7962a8…
10-25 18:27:17	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	143	51¢	$73	0x67902e…
10-25 18:24:51	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	150	44¢	$66	0x2020c4…
10-25 18:23:03	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	32	52¢	$17	0x4ed15c…
10-25 18:23:03	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	19	52¢	$10	0x4b7692…
10-25 18:22:02	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	150	43¢	$64	0xf031cf…
10-25 18:21:26	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	52	51¢	$26	0x547ba1…
10-25 17:50:18	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	BUY	36	59¢	$21	0xd23ebf…
10-25 17:28:38	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x751cb3…
10-25 17:28:36	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0xdcb985…
10-25 16:04:17	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	No	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xc56f04…
10-25 16:04:17	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	No	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x260f19…
10-25 15:07:33	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x6dd25d…
10-25 15:06:35	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xb493b3…
10-25 14:08:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x0a024a…
10-25 14:04:24	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x48b019…
10-25 13:23:44	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0xf3b7d9…
10-25 12:01:51	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x4f8f08…
10-25 11:51:21	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x227f41…
10-25 10:57:54	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0x0d8c0c…
10-25 10:53:56	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x2cdf09…
10-25 10:47:18	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x127513…
10-25 10:08:51	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x014ef4…