Lone-Finding-Attenuation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$833

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.2%

Resolved

475

Trades

904

lifetime

Volume

$27.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 10-28 01:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 133 days

Categories

Other

81% 63% +$450

Politics

15% 59% +$352

Crypto

2% 60% -$4

Sports

1% 50% +$34

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 total 4pt5	3	$1.2K	625	625	+0	Under	+$38	06-25 21:51
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 spread away 1pt5	2	$1.0K	515	515	+0	Côte d'Ivoire	+$2	06-30 18:57
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	2	$875	488	488	+0	No	+$95	06-19 02:40
will lula announce the nomination of an individual for minister of the supreme federal court of brazil by june 30 20260602182956654	5	$704	760	0	+760	No	+$56	06-30 14:47
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	8	$675	505	505	+0	No	+$273	07-07 17:50
fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	2	$511	303	303	+0	Morocco	+$11	06-30 02:51
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	16	$494	656	20	+636	open	—	10-28 00:10
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 31?	21	$407	582	150	+432	Yes	-$334	07-31 15:27
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 5pt5	1	$400	437	0	+437	Under	+$37	06-30 22:12
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	10	$389	174	526	-353	No	-$133	09-23 02:32
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 31?	10	$376	252	252	+0	No	-$11	07-31 15:29
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 25?	4	$375	196	196	+0	No	+$15	07-25 18:24
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?	5	$356	204	204	-0	No	+$28	07-29 10:57
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on July 24?	11	$351	418	0	+418	No	+$67	07-24 15:16
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 spread away 1pt5	1	$350	385	0	+385	Morocco	-$350	07-04 18:03
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 31?	2	$348	179	179	+0	No	+$4	07-31 16:02
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	2	$331	185	185	+0	No	+$31	06-19 13:47
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 28?	4	$327	178	178	+0	No	+$27	07-29 01:31
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	7	$316	196	196	+0	open	—	10-21 01:15
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	3	$273	153	153	+0	No	+$30	06-19 02:40
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	2	$261	140	140	+0	No	+$18	07-28 15:38
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	3	$256	141	141	+0	Yes	+$0	07-03 03:18
Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	2	$251	143	143	+0	No	+$36	06-19 02:40
bra fla sao 2026 07 26 spread home 2pt5	1	$250	281	0	+281	São Paulo FC	+$31	07-26 22:49
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 31?	7	$247	148	148	+0	No	-$39	07-31 17:36
bra vit pal 2026 07 29 spread home 1pt5	1	$236	250	0	+250	SE Palmeiras	+$14	07-30 01:04
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$235	192	192	+0	Yes	-$3	08-18 15:27
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 28?	5	$228	165	165	+0	Yes	+$55	07-29 02:23
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 29?	3	$228	131	131	+0	Yes	-$9	07-29 10:56
bra vit pal 2026 07 29 team total home 0pt5	3	$228	124	124	+0	Under	+$17	07-30 02:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:30:29	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	42¢	$8	0xeaa9f9…
10-28 01:28:54	Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?	No	BUY	70	90¢	$63	0x683de3…
10-28 00:10:00	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xbe30c1…
10-27 17:18:27	Exact Score: CR Vasco da Gama 0 - 0 CR Flamengo?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x0b0f67…
10-27 17:12:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x41da6b…
10-27 17:11:39	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xb0b191…
10-27 15:46:12	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xc0bc63…
10-27 12:01:11	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x26d2b1…
10-27 00:23:50	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	130	56¢	$73	0xa7f35f…
10-27 00:21:56	Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)	CR Flamengo	SELL	70	22¢	$15	0xdc7162…
10-27 00:17:35	Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)	CR Flamengo	BUY	70	55¢	$39	0xd164ae…
10-27 00:08:11	CA Mineiro leading at halftime?	No	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x260cde…
10-26 23:23:39	CA Mineiro leading at halftime?	No	BUY	99	50¢	$49	0x7470dd…
10-25 22:34:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0xd45a10…
10-25 22:34:33	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	Yes	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0xdb29a9…
10-25 22:34:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	38	68¢	$26	0xb03f5a…
10-23 02:31:57	CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Team to Advance	CR Flamengo	BUY	75	39¢	$29	0x9fcc8f…
10-23 02:30:41	CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Team to Advance	CR Flamengo	BUY	34	56¢	$19	0x8ec29c…
10-23 02:25:08	CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Team to Advance	CR Flamengo	BUY	55	59¢	$32	0x6812e6…
10-23 02:13:17	Exact Score: CR Flamengo 0 - 0 Estudiantes de La Plata?	Yes	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0xdb6490…
10-23 02:13:17	Exact Score: CR Flamengo 0 - 0 Estudiantes de La Plata?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xb21806…
10-23 02:13:14	Exact Score: CR Flamengo 0 - 0 Estudiantes de La Plata?	Yes	SELL	36	68¢	$24	0x5c3199…
10-23 02:11:23	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xb38a64…
10-23 02:03:36	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	35	40¢	$14	0xbd9749…
10-23 02:03:27	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x47d2d1…
10-23 01:53:30	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	130	50¢	$65	0x1edca9…
10-23 01:47:32	Exact Score: CR Flamengo 1 - 0 Estudiantes de La Plata?	Yes	SELL	35	33¢	$12	0x70c6b9…
10-23 01:43:54	Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)	Estudiantes de La Plata	SELL	32	75¢	$24	0xe5d2b9…
10-23 00:34:00	Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)	Estudiantes de La Plata	BUY	32	65¢	$21	0xbe8f6b…
10-22 02:15:06	Will SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	41	17¢	$7	0xd42e14…
10-22 01:16:36	Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)	Fluminense FC	BUY	18	87¢	$16	0xcd4638…
10-21 02:05:30	Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xb5617f…
10-21 02:02:35	Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-2.5)	CR Vasco da Gama	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xc433d1…
10-21 01:45:27	CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	34	47¢	$16	0xb2e1e0…
10-21 01:20:00	Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-2.5)	CR Vasco da Gama	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x79bf20…
10-21 01:15:17	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	No	SELL	51	86¢	$44	0xa52400…
10-21 01:14:27	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	No	SELL	17	86¢	$15	0x2ee572…
10-21 01:13:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	33¢	$7	0xde5178…
10-20 19:08:18	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x622edb…
10-20 19:07:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x517509…
10-20 19:00:41	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	55¢	$8	0xf3a319…
10-20 18:51:27	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x140cb4…
10-20 18:48:32	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	45	88¢	$39	0x29a962…
10-20 18:46:48	Exact Score: CR Flamengo 0 - 0 Estudiantes de La Plata?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x14b4e9…
10-20 18:46:33	Exact Score: CR Flamengo 1 - 0 Estudiantes de La Plata?	Yes	BUY	35	18¢	$6	0xacdc8a…
10-20 18:42:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	38	23¢	$9	0xe05541…
10-20 18:35:03	Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x465e98…
10-20 18:24:41	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	No	SELL	68	86¢	$59	0xb18a5a…
10-18 23:29:29	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x76132e…
10-18 22:42:57	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0xf33256…
10-18 22:42:24	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	No	SELL	35	87¢	$30	0x05187f…
10-17 22:16:33	Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)	Botafogo FR	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xa33ffb…
10-16 01:49:24	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	38	24¢	$9	0x9e9f75…
10-16 01:45:15	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x290ffb…
10-16 01:44:49	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0xa8cf2a…
10-16 01:44:00	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	33	27¢	$9	0x97c298…
10-14 02:12:47	Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x399180…
10-14 02:07:16	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xc47935…
10-14 02:02:56	Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x4bbf2f…
10-14 02:02:28	Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xe023f0…
10-13 22:20:57	CA Boca Juniors vs. CR Vasco da Gama: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	41	64¢	$26	0xa58482…
10-13 13:09:38	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	No	BUY	196	76¢	$148	0x62e834…
10-12 22:17:33	Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x77880b…
10-12 18:04:00	Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-10-12?	No	BUY	15	62¢	$9	0x4d34f8…
10-11 23:57:02	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xeaa915…
10-11 21:46:38	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x192d92…
10-11 02:43:53	CR Flamengo vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xf7821b…
10-09 00:06:53	Santos FC vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0x45ac9b…
10-08 23:36:53	Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)	Santos FC	BUY	57	61¢	$35	0xef99f7…
10-08 22:52:45	CR Flamengo leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x28ca7f…
10-08 22:52:45	CR Flamengo leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	19	34¢	$7	0x1ccd8e…
10-08 22:52:44	CR Flamengo leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xd9790a…
10-06 15:29:47	Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xacc29b…
09-29 22:56:35	Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	No	BUY	23	15¢	$3	0x54a02d…
09-29 22:50:14	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x600650…
09-29 13:28:26	Lula participates in debate before first round?	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0xa8e92b…
09-29 13:28:05	Lula participates in debate before first round?	Yes	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0xf91185…
09-29 12:57:12	Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x63f1a3…
09-29 12:53:50	Will Brazil win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xf2999b…
09-29 11:40:38	Will Brazil win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xd779a1…
09-29 03:30:38	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	No	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xe3fff2…
09-29 03:27:57	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xa329ab…
09-27 20:38:33	Ravens vs. Cowboys	Ravens	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xd9a9b4…
09-25 19:29:59	Will France win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0xc81f05…
09-25 17:10:11	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x061b18…
09-25 16:59:59	Will France win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x979690…
09-25 16:59:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xe01864…
09-25 12:02:27	Will Australia vs. Brazil end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x1780ed…
09-25 11:54:20	Will Australia win on 2026-09-25?	No	BUY	74	38¢	$28	0xf4956e…
09-23 02:32:50	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	31	57¢	$18	0x31dbf6…
09-20 22:05:31	CR Flamengo vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Red Bull Bragantino 1st Half O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xbc85b2…
09-20 22:04:29	CR Flamengo vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0x49f77e…
09-20 20:18:23	Exact Score: CR Flamengo 2 - 0 Red Bull Bragantino?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xaa93eb…
09-20 20:16:43	Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)	Red Bull Bragantino	BUY	25	73¢	$18	0xc4f70d…
09-20 20:15:16	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	No	SELL	55	59¢	$32	0x6f2be6…
09-19 20:33:15	Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x3179ac…
09-19 20:01:09	CA Mineiro leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x11d868…
09-19 20:01:06	Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0xdfa243…
09-19 20:00:59	Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0x5906bd…
09-19 20:00:54	CA Mineiro leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0xe86c67…