Improbable-Chub — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

98.6%

Resolved

288

Trades

289

lifetime

Volume

$3.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-12 08:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 232 days

Categories

Other

94% 100% +$4

Politics

6% 91% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 1°C on November 14?	No		+8	$8	100¢	$8	$0	11-14 04:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$25	26	+26	No	-$25	05-15 04:37
Will Trump Leave China on May 14?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-14 04:42
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-02 13:24
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-30 08:45
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$24	25	+25	Yes	+$1	05-03 03:29
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on April 30?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-30 04:17
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-29 09:38
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on April 28?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-28 08:26
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 27?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-28 01:13
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 27?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-27 08:07
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 26?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-27 01:07
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-26 08:54
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 25?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-26 01:17
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-25 09:44
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-24 07:36
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 23 2026 26corhigher	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-23 22:28
highest temperature in seoul on april 23 2026 22c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-23 09:07
highest temperature in nyc on april 22 2026 55forbelow	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-23 00:31
highest temperature in karachi on april 22 2026 33c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-22 15:53
highest temperature in wellington on april 22 2026 14c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-22 07:50
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$1	04-21 15:40
highest temperature in wellington on april 21 2026 14c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-21 07:12
highest temperature in nyc on april 20 2026 50 51f	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-21 01:01
highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 15c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-20 09:19
highest temperature in chicago on april 19 2026 52 53f	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-20 00:41
highest temperature in chongqing on april 19 2026 28c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-19 15:46
highest temperature in wellington on april 19 2026 17c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-19 08:36
highest temperature in nyc on april 18 2026 62 63f	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-19 00:34
highest temperature in singapore on april 18 2026 34c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-18 10:46
highest temperature in los angeles on april 17 2026 72 73f	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-18 01:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 04:04:22	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 1°C on November 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x24033c…
11-12 08:23:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x391738…
11-11 16:14:04	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on November 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7818f7…
11-09 09:08:55	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 9?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8deb69…
11-08 13:08:42	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on November 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x848453…
11-07 11:06:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on November 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8818f2…
11-05 17:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on November 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x49da2f…
11-03 15:57:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xba10d7…
11-02 13:45:19	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on November 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdf4a6c…
10-31 17:28:37	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on November 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6d1736…
10-31 09:48:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaff0f3…
10-30 10:09:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbcd3d9…
10-29 08:52:53	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8c91a1…
10-28 07:34:28	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb5e2ca…
10-27 08:19:17	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd74863…
10-26 09:13:05	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x24b269…
10-22 10:07:42	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x339e2d…
10-20 07:27:29	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x51c5a4…
10-19 08:44:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5905fc…
10-18 09:03:15	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2b1914…
10-17 11:21:27	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf06f4e…
10-16 08:55:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd79b5f…
10-15 09:13:55	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x42ef56…
10-14 09:12:17	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcf89b1…
10-13 08:40:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x77b38c…
10-12 08:18:22	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x504351…
10-11 08:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd5c49b…
10-08 08:21:25	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd68c1f…
10-07 14:15:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xec2d8f…
10-06 07:37:30	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc1e38b…
10-04 14:43:26	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc8cc30…
10-03 05:46:35	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x335860…
10-02 07:38:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6fd106…
10-01 08:14:11	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc9ee55…
09-30 07:39:03	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdd7bb4…
09-29 14:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3302dd…
09-28 09:23:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on September 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x64edad…
09-27 08:40:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad9e47…
09-25 10:12:32	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb1d8d0…
09-24 08:22:32	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x587c4d…
09-23 06:47:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x299260…
09-22 07:46:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4a76ed…
09-21 08:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x55529c…
09-20 05:36:52	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x99b848…
09-19 08:16:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x93b2d6…
09-18 06:13:42	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa5274d…
09-17 03:58:12	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3b63a9…
09-16 08:08:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2d1ef6…
09-15 09:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbf7bb0…
09-14 08:15:25	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7cf5cf…
09-12 16:14:15	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaca34a…
09-11 07:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x06b812…
09-10 04:57:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0da2ee…
09-09 09:15:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a2972…
09-09 01:21:49	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb10ce4…
09-08 02:32:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1d151e…
09-07 08:14:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1f068b…
09-06 17:42:40	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc8d85e…
09-06 09:09:25	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa6de02…
09-05 09:53:27	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3a2d3a…
09-04 17:32:39	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb0256f…
09-03 09:43:58	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf8943e…
09-02 07:30:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2509ec…
08-30 08:25:39	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7d1072…
08-29 07:23:28	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2047e9…
08-28 07:06:22	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x856d81…
08-27 07:59:13	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa42196…
08-26 07:58:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C or higher on August 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x21311b…
08-25 08:24:49	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc9488d…
08-24 09:46:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xca6972…
08-23 14:42:31	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xde238e…
08-22 08:41:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x80756b…
08-21 06:48:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1d3e53…
08-20 08:35:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe85525…
08-19 10:55:25	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x16c5e5…
08-18 08:09:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe4d9e0…
08-17 07:15:55	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x85ab18…
08-16 11:06:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf4b7d6…
08-15 09:42:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x597819…
08-14 06:40:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfdb9bf…
08-13 07:44:58	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf6c73c…
08-12 07:42:27	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8fd36e…
08-11 06:48:21	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3d0aee…
08-10 06:44:57	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc08d7f…
08-09 01:18:42	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2429fd…
08-08 07:20:28	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe917c7…
08-07 01:06:12	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd9d123…
08-06 01:06:45	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfe4aab…
08-05 07:46:53	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe16ae4…
08-04 08:08:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbdf2ea…
08-03 07:10:00	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x31055d…
08-02 01:29:05	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6e08d8…
08-01 06:54:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x950e78…
07-31 08:21:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x815ec6…
07-30 06:44:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbdd1db…
07-29 06:07:59	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1c76b3…
07-28 06:17:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x123f9e…
07-27 08:06:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb8bb29…
07-26 06:27:45	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1987c1…
07-25 07:42:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9fea03…