Definite-Thorn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$40

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.2%

Resolved

Trades

3,772

lifetime

Volume

$47.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 06-01 12:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 60% $-12

Politics

22% 100% +$51

Other

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 143 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 62k on february 24	2	$2.2K	1,084	1,084	+0	open	—	02-24 16:48
bitcoin up or down on march 3	4	$1.8K	888	888	+0	open	—	03-03 16:58
will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 10	11	$1.1K	565	565	+0	open	—	03-10 16:00
bitcoin above 66k on march 19	2	$990	500	500	+0	open	—	03-19 16:11
sol updown 15m 1772261100	3	$815	816	0	+816	open	—	02-28 06:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	1	$770	777	0	+777	No	+$7	05-06 15:58
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	8	$770	400	400	+0	open	—	05-15 08:03
ethereum up or down on march 11	4	$662	333	333	+0	open	—	03-11 15:56
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner	19	$634	667	0	+667	open	—	05-23 07:30
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	7	$604	627	0	+627	open	—	05-25 13:05
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$578	300	297	+3	open	—	05-15 04:05
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?	4	$563	300	300	+0	open	—	05-14 08:08
xrp updown 15m 1772259300	5	$554	555	0	+555	open	—	02-28 06:29
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	7	$497	209	309	-100	open	—	05-15 08:03
will the price of bitcoin be between 80000 82000 on february 3	2	$497	250	250	+0	open	—	02-03 16:33
bitcoin above 80k on february 5	2	$496	250	250	+0	open	—	02-05 00:30
bitcoin above 66k on march 3	4	$441	222	222	+0	open	—	03-03 16:49
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$398	206	206	+0	open	—	05-15 08:33
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	5	$396	400	0	+400	open	—	05-23 06:49
ethereum above 2400 on april 15	2	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	04-15 15:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	7	$393	200	200	+0	open	—	04-29 23:08
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	5	$393	200	200	+0	open	—	03-30 10:37
will the us invade iran by march 31	5	$381	200	200	+0	open	—	04-01 04:00
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	6	$377	200	200	+0	open	—	05-15 07:29
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$374	200	200	+0	open	—	03-31 11:52
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	3	$371	200	200	+0	open	—	05-01 03:39
eth updown 15m 1772286300	2	$363	367	0	+367	open	—	02-28 13:55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$354	200	200	+0	open	—	04-30 12:58
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	4	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	03-14 07:35
btc updown 15m 1772286300	5	$330	333	0	+333	open	—	02-28 13:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 12:22:29	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x40cbb1…
06-01 07:19:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xa2dee5…
06-01 06:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x7baa1c…
06-01 06:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x372d1c…
06-01 06:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xb9b537…
06-01 06:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0xb087e6…
06-01 06:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x00d830…
06-01 06:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xd473d6…
06-01 06:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x4d3f7b…
06-01 06:05:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x05de7f…
06-01 02:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xee7c73…
06-01 02:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xf457b9…
06-01 02:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x1776f4…
06-01 02:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xc1abec…
06-01 01:54:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2d96a9…
06-01 01:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x563856…
06-01 01:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x08f2b6…
06-01 00:35:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x45e761…
05-31 18:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x6d3ff8…
05-31 18:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x4f4df1…
05-31 18:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x917834…
05-31 18:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xfaa652…
05-31 18:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x510342…
05-31 15:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xb36dc1…
05-31 15:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xcc129d…
05-31 15:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x6cc3ed…
05-31 15:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x0f2d39…
05-31 15:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0xefe037…
05-31 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0xf04480…
05-31 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x419d12…
05-31 11:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xa8eb47…
05-31 11:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x05e46f…
05-31 11:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x78af04…
05-31 11:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x5b750a…
05-31 10:46:32	LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	Top Esports	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x1df694…
05-31 10:40:45	LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	JD Gaming	BUY	47	9¢	$4	0xe538bb…
05-31 10:40:37	LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	JD Gaming	BUY	31	9¢	$3	0x8536f9…
05-31 10:40:33	LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	JD Gaming	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0xcc007f…
05-31 10:40:33	LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	JD Gaming	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0xadf719…
05-31 10:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xa8f412…
05-31 09:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$4	0x73e8b4…
05-31 09:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x2f14c0…
05-31 09:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2edc07…
05-31 07:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0xb27896…
05-31 07:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0xae1a1d…
05-31 07:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0xea53bc…
05-31 07:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x0d7669…
05-31 07:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xdafef6…
05-31 07:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xd6632e…
05-31 07:35:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x1f01fb…
05-31 07:34:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0xb6332f…
05-31 07:33:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0x9cac3a…
05-31 07:33:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xc4a90c…
05-31 07:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x200040…
05-31 07:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x42d837…
05-31 07:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x3f011c…
05-31 06:29:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xfaac2d…
05-31 05:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x0a0eea…
05-31 05:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x3a4d0f…
05-31 05:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x761197…
05-31 05:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x971028…
05-31 05:04:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xeb9fa6…
05-31 05:04:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xc81e5d…
05-31 04:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0xf802f7…
05-31 04:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xaf75a9…
05-31 04:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$4	0x87b05b…
05-31 04:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6095bd…
05-31 04:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x8f3d85…
05-31 04:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xd19ab1…
05-31 04:49:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xc1cde1…
05-31 04:44:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x8c481a…
05-31 04:44:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x7c5c62…
05-31 04:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0xaeffca…
05-31 04:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x6de1ef…
05-31 03:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0x84d9f6…
05-31 03:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x29654d…
05-31 02:49:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xae6dd7…
05-31 02:49:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x0caac8…
05-31 02:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa1d61e…
05-31 02:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x7e0c4b…
05-31 02:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0x143019…
05-31 02:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$5	0x281a28…
05-31 02:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x01a422…
05-31 01:04:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x1ca8ef…
05-30 23:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xa79afe…
05-30 23:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xfbe8b6…
05-30 23:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	53¢	$3	0x13db82…
05-30 23:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x440448…
05-30 23:34:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xc6ceb4…
05-30 23:32:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xb85fa3…
05-30 23:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xfd19c3…
05-30 23:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xf4ebc8…
05-30 23:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x852d4a…
05-30 23:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x98a6d9…
05-30 23:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xbecfa5…
05-30 23:19:48	XRP Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdc973b…
05-30 23:19:38	XRP Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0x5a4576…
05-30 12:39:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x8d4a75…
05-30 12:39:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x7b6baa…
05-30 12:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xa61c7e…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de	716	$723	1,590	06-01 06:49
Worldly-Shackle 0x941e…1fbf	672	$8.88K	1,515	05-17 01:40
(anonymous) 0x6cf4…e1fa	640	$1.30K	2,049	06-01 06:49
Dry-Solvency 0x5d3c…c298	634	$105.6K	9,164	05-18 05:44
(anonymous) 0x09ae…55bc	624	$17.7K	1,718	05-01 01:05
(anonymous) 0xa3d0…ec04	618	$25.7K	4,807	06-01 06:48
(anonymous) 0x8852…c569	617	$82.8K	26,364	06-01 06:49
(anonymous) 0xf49a…f9ba	595	$5.18K	5,982	03-14 12:00